Workshop on Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Projections (August 12-16, 2013) The National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform

Motivation: Practitioner’s Dilemma Practitioner’s dilemma - how to choose among many available sources of climate information for a given place and application?

Needs Objective evaluation of datasets prepared for use in planning for climate change. Provision of application-specific guidance to improve usability of climate-change projections in planning. Initiate a community based on standards to build and sustain practice of evaluation and informed use of climate-change projections.

When, Where, Who August 12-16, 2013 Boulder Colorado Participants –Use cases from sectoral working groups Agricultural impacts Ecological impacts Water resources impacts Human health impacts –Datasets from downscaling working groups –NCPP Community, agency partners, program sponsors, international observers, interested parties

Week at a Glance Monday 12 August Tuesday 13 August Wednesday 14 August Thursday 15 August Friday 16 August Days 1 and 2 – Evaluation Focus Day 3 – Transition Days 4 and 5 – Guidance Focus

Expected Outcomes –Database for access to high-resolution datasets with standardized metadata of downscaling methods –Demonstration of flexible, transparent climate index calculation service (Climate Translator v.0) –First version of a standardized evaluation capability and infrastructure for high-resolution climate datasets, incl. application- oriented evaluations –Description of a sustainable infrastructure for evaluation services –Sector and problem-specific case studies within the NCPP environment –First version of a comparative evaluation environment to develop translational and guidance information –Identify value-added, remaining gaps and needs for further development of evaluation framework and metadata, incl. templates DATA EVALUATION COMMUNITIES OF PRACTICE

Evaluation: Downscaling working groups BCSD BCCA ARRM MACA Statistical downscaling datasets Hostetler data, RegCM2 NARCCAP data, Dynamical downscaling datasets Delta method Baseline GRIDDED OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS

Guidance: Applications Application Use Cases –Identification of network of application specialists –Define representative questions to focus the evaluations –Representation of application needs: Scales, Indices, etc. –Feedback on guidance and translational information needs –Feedback on design / requirements of software environment for workshop –Contribution to reports from workshop Water resources Ecological Impacts Agriculture Health impacts

About 75 participants Downscaling working groups –BCCA, BCSD, ARRM, NARCCAP, MACA, etc. teams – approx. 20 people Sectoral working groups –Agricultural impacts, Ecological impacts, Water resources impacts, Human health impacts – approx. 30 people NCPP Community – Executive Board, Climate Science Applications Team, Core & Tech Teams = approx. 18 people Program managers, reporters, international guests – about 5 people

Week in More Detail Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Days 1 and 2 – EVALUATION focus Intercomparison of downscaling methods Fine tuning the evaluation framework – what worked and what did not work? Interpretation of results and development of guidance for user groups Identification of gaps and needs for downscaled data for the participating applications Day 3 – TRANSITION: EVALUATION and GUIDANCE Morning - Summary of the downscaling methods attributes and evaluations results by sector and protocol Afternoon - Start of sectoral applications groups work Days 4 and 5 – GUIDANCE focus Interpretation of results and guidance for user groups Presentation of metadata descriptions and their usage Presentation of indices provision - OCGIS Identification of gaps and needs for downscaled data for application needs Identification of future steps