General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 1 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond 3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY 6 June 2008 Cankarjev Dom, Ljubljana, Slovenia

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 2 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Contribution of Photovoltaics to the 2020 Targets and beyond or or The Road ahead European PV Technology Platform Stefan Nowak, Joachim Luther, Wim Sinke PV TP Platform General Assembly, Ljubljana, 6 June 2008

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 3 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 4 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 5 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond The Debate EC - 10 January 2007EU-Council - 8 March 2007G8 - 7 June 2007

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 6 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond The Drivers

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 7 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond The Drivers An era of revolutionary transitions Step change in energy use Supply will struggle to keep pace Environmental stresses are increasing

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 8 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Scenarios oil coal gas nuclear power hydroelectricity biomasse (traditional) biomasse (advanced) solar power (PV and solar thermal generation) solar thermal (heat only) other renewables geothermal wind year EJ/a Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003,

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 9 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Shell Scenarios 2008 „Scramble“ „Blueprints“

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 10 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 11 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond ~ 2500 TWh

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 12 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Turbulent times

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 13 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond From the PV TRAC Vision report

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 14 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Electricity prices Source: Low: 35.55€/MWh High: 74.90€/MWh

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 15 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond What does this mean for PV ? a tremendous opportunity ! and … a tremendous challenge ! a lot of work !

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 16 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond PV in : just a milestone on the way to 2050! European electricity demand 2020:3500 TWh (DG TREN, 2007) 3% of 3500 TWh 105 TWh Installed PV capacity 100 GW

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 17 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond but: there are other metrics !

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 18 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond and more metrics:

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 19 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond and: PV provides peak load ! Source: M. Braun, ISET

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 20 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Is PV on the right road ? YES ! ???

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 21 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Market development to 2006 Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the IEA PVPS reporting countries – Years > 40% growth multibillion $ market Source IEA PVPS

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 22 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond PV module production Source IEA PVPS

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 23 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Solar cell production – Global distribution 2006 USA : 6,8 %

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 24 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Relative shares of global figures EU vs. Japan (estimates) *2007: estimates 2007*: Global module production 2.8 GWp Total installed global capacity ~ 9 GWp Installed capacity Europe 4.5 GWp

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 25 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Relevant issues (and barriers) Cost / price and competitiveness Access to the grid Grid integration Administrative procedures Awareness Short term action and long-term impact Policy benefits

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 26 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond The benefits of PV industry and economy (short term) energy security and supply (mid term) environment (long term) Understanding the right sequence from a policy perspective

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 27 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Realising the opportunities requires sustained action in … Technology Industry Markets Policy

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 28 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Required action Coherent and long-term strategic approach Strong but balanced action between technology development (R&D), regulatory framework and market deployment Sustainable market conditions Predictability and continuity (for investment) – no stop&go Grid access and light administrative procedures Transparency and competition Urgency for an increased and sustained effort

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 29 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond The contribution of the PV TP Industry, research community and governments interacting in one body Position statements and recommendations with one voice (e.g. FP 7, EC Directives, SET Plan) R&D, Policy and market facilitation Dedicated projects Events, workshops and publications

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 30 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Examples products 2007 Strategic Research Agenda (SRA)PV Fact sheets

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 31 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond SRA aims quantified SRA aims quantified characteristics of PV technology Rounded figures 1980Today 2015 / Long term potential Typical turn-key system price (2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT) >30 5 (range 4~8) 2.5 / Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh) > / 0.12 (competitive with retail electricity) 0.06 (competitive with wholesale electricity) 0.03 Typical commercial flat- plate module efficiencies (total area) up to 8%up to 15%Up to 20%up to 25%up to 40% Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies (  10%) up to 25%Up to 30%up to 40%up to 60% Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs) >

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 32 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond PV in the SET plan (1) Targets At least 3% electricity by PV Reach grid-parity by 2020 in most of Europe Ensure a dominant position for the European PV industry

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 33 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond PV in the SET plan (2) Priority areas Support the PV industry in multi-GW production, in particular for equipment, processes, materials Ensure massive deployment in all market segments, with particular actions for BIPV / BAPV applications, grid integration and module recovery system Increase human resources in the sector Support communication and awareness

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 34 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Conclusions PV has emerged from a visionary R&D field and is entering an impressive industrial development phase PV holds the promise of a major contribution to a sustainable electricity supply Strong, dedicated and fast action is needed to realise the huge potential of photovoltaics PV is part of the solution, not the problem ! If we don‘t do it, others certainly will !!

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 35 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 36 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 37 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond European Football Championships of course with PV ! Basel, 200 kW Zurich, 240 kW Bern, 1.35 MW

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 38 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond Dr. Stefan Nowak, Chairman IEA PVPS NET Nowak Energy & Technology Ltd. Waldweg 8, CH – 1717 St. Ursen, Switzerland Tel / Fax