Timing of the Second Maasvlakte Maurits van Schuylenburg January 17th 2002

3 ‡ Port of Rotterdam: facts and figures ‡ Rotterdam Municipal Port Management ‡ Projections of space requirements ‡Timing problem: strategic reserve ‡Research Methodology ‡Simulation model ‡Results Content Presentation

4 Port of Rotterdam: facts and figures ‡ Total area10,500 hectares ‡ Industrial area5,000 hectares ‡ Total employment350,000 people ‡ Total added value18 billion EURO’s ‡ Regional added value7 billion EURO’s ‡ Throughput (2001)316 million tonnes

5 Statistics: Rotterdam Municipal Port management ‡ Employees: 1,200 ‡ Leased land: 4,905 hectares ‡ Turnover: 350 mln. EURO’s ‡ Operating profit: 67 mln. EURO’s ‡ Invested capital: 2,833 mln. EURO’s ‡ Return on investment: 10.6 %

6 Mission RMPM ‡ The RMPM strengthens the position of the industrial port complex in an European perspective. Now and in the long term. ‡ The RMPM is the port authority and an international operating service provider.

2020, Integrated Projections Throughput297 mio tons480 mio tons Container throughput4.8 mio TEU17.6 mio TEU Demand of space3,900 ha5,450 ha Modal split (cont.)31 % barge40 % 14 % rail18 % 55 % road42 % Employment315,000 persons375,000 persons Value added38.6 bln Dfl104 bln Dfl

8 Demand for space in the port area (in hectares) ‡ Goods traffic 850 ‡ Distribution 275 ‡ Industry 590 ‡ Other 65 ‡ Strategic reserve 575 ‡ Total demand2,355 ‡ To be found in port area1,095 ‡ Lack of space1,260

9 Existing port area Survey of industrial land, as of 1 January 1997

10 Alternative layouts for Maasvlakte 2

11 Land Reclamation Two alternative designs: Via Yangtze Port * Nett number of hectares to be granted: 1,000 (in phases) * Entrance via Yangtze Port (width 500 m.) * Costs: 1.8 billion EURO’s Separate Entrance * Nett number of hectares to be granted: 1,000 (in phases) * Inland shipping via Yangtze port (width 200 m.) * Costs: 2.3 billion EURO’s

12 Parties involved ‡ Official players: * National Government (5 ministries) * Province of South Holland * Municipality of Rotterdam * Stadsregio Rotterdam (Greater Rotterdam Area) ‡ Actors: * Environmental and Nature Groups * Employers / employees * Municipalities involved * Private firms

13 History ‡ October 1991Draft Portplan 2010 ‡ December 1993Portplan 2010 Plan of Action ROM ‡ National discussion ‡ May 1998Start Project Mainportdevelopment Rotterdam (PMR) ‡ June , Integrated projections for Port and Industry (Verkenningen 2020) ‡ December 1999Consultation of the market ‡ June 2000Visie en Durf (Vision and Guts) ‡ July 2000Cabinet letter to Parliament

14 Planning Process PMR ‡ May 2001: Cabinet decision about PKB-part 1 and MER ‡ Summer 2001: results consultation & advice (PKB-part 2) ‡ December 2001: Cabinet’s definite stance (PKB-part3) ‡ Spring 2002: final decision parliament (PKB-part 4) and start procedures of appeal

15 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte Problem description: When do we have to start with the construction of the Second Maasvlakte? ‡ Too early ==> high costs ‡ Too late ==> loss of customers Long term sectoral space projections are based on annual average growth. In reality the demand for space fluctuates strongly.

16 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte Research Methodology (1997): ‡ building of simulation model of the demand for space ‡ with the model the the probability of annual space demands were determined ‡ with an accepted chance of ‘saying no’ to a customer ==> annual space demand is determined

17 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte Input data: ‡ annual growth per sector (projections) ‡ average space demand per occasion per sector i =>  i ‡ average number of occasions per sector i per year => i ‡ statistical distributions of space demand per occasion, based on actual data tested with “Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of Fit” ‡ Arrival pattern both Poisson and Erlang-K (k=4) tested

18 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte ha/jr   Transhipment18,29,21,97  Distribution6,61,35,08  Chemical industry16,013,91,15  Other2,280,643,56  Total43,13,6611,76

19 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

20 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte ‡ Three years before hectares are rented, options are given ‡ In these 3 years financing is arranged, terminal is built etc. ‡ ==> Land is needed about 3 years before actual use ‡ building time of MV2 dependent on alternative and phase 4-6 years

21 Timing of the Second Maasvlakte Example: ‡ 700 ha still available ‡ 90% criterion ‡ options 3 years ‡ building time 4 years ‡==> shortage in 2006 ==> start building in 2002

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