INDC Webinar October 7 th, 2015 Review of INDCs submitted from SIDS to date and a discussion of the potential benefits from integrating international crediting mechanisms into the INDCs from SIDS – Presented by Hugh Sealy, Ph.D., M.Sc., B.Eng. (Chem.) 1

Structure of the ADP negotiations Workstream 1 Elements of the 2015 agreement iNDCs Workstream 2 Paragraphs 3 & 4 WEMA 2

Mandate from the Durban Platform Develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force Under the Convention Applicable to all Parties Adopt at COP21 in 2015 (Paris) Come into effect and be implemented from 2020 Includes mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, transparency of action and support, and capacity-building (Loss and Damage not included as a separate element) Workstream 1 – The new agreement 3

Warsaw decision 1/CP.19 Without prejudice to their legal nature, invites Parties to communicate intended nationally determined contributions well in advance of COP21 in a manner that facilitates clarity, transparency and understanding; Requests ADP to identify by COP20 the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (iNDCs) 4

Lima decision 1/CP.20 Information provided by Parties may include: o quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year), o time frames and/or periods for implementation, o scope and coverage, o planning processes, o assumptions and methodological approaches including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals, o how it is fair and ambitious, o how it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (iNDCs) 5

Different Types of iNDCs Contemplated 1.A quantified, economy-wide, absolute emission limitation or reduction target in relation to a baseline year; 2.A quantified, economy-wide, emission limitation or reduction target relative to a projection of its emissions 3.A quantified, economy-wide, emission limitation or reduction target relative to unit of GDP in relation to a previous year 4.A quantified, economy-wide, emission limitation and reduction target per capita 5.A non-economy wide actions 6

Brazil’s Concentric Circles 7

What should SIDS include in their iNDCs? INDCs from SIDS should contain two distinct and separate components: An unconditional component, which the country is prepared to commit to achieve without any assistance or use of market instruments. A conditional component, for which the country explicitly specifies the types (capacity building, technology transfer, climate finance including revenue from crediting mechanisms) and amount of support it would require to achieve the target(s) in this component. 8

5 years or 10 years? The iNDCs are meant to come into effect in However, the time frame or period of implementation is to be specified by each country. AOSIS is currently split on whether the iNDCs should be submitted over a 5 or a 10 year cycle. 9

iNDCs already submitted by SIDS ( as of Oct 6, 2015 ) Singapore Marshall Islands Trinidad and Tobago Dominican Republic Belize Grenada Barbados Haiti Dominica Guyana Maldives Seychelles 10

Singapore’s iNDC Emissions Intensity in 2005: Singapore’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per S$GDP (at 2010 prices) in 2005 is kgCO2e/S$. Projected Emissions Intensity in 2030: Singapore’s GHG emissions per S$GDP (at 2010 prices) in 2030 is projected to be kgCO2e/S$. Economy-wide All unconditional. No intended use of markets. 11

Marshall Islands’ iNDC RMI commits to a quantified economy-wide target to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to 32% below 2010 levels by RMI communicates, as an indicative target, its intention to reduce its emissions of GHGs to 45% below 2010 levels by Excludes LULUCF and use of markets All unconditional 12

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T&T’s iNDC 14

T&T’s iNDC cont. “Trinidad and Tobago's aim is to achieve a reduction objective in overall emissions from the three sectors by 15% by 2030 from BAU, which in absolute terms is an equivalent of one hundred and three million tonnes (103,000,000) of CO2e. The estimated cost of meeting this objective is USD 2 billion, which is expected to be met partly through domestic funding and conditional on international financing including through the Green Climate Fund. In this regard, Trinidad and Tobago will commit to unconditionally reduce its public transportation emissions by 30% or one million, seven hundred thousand tonnes (1,700,000) CO2e compared to 2013 levels by December 31, 2030.” 15

T&T’s iNDC cont. Based on three sectors: Transport (1.7 million tonnes) Power Industrial Unconditional in transport sector but conditional in the other two sectors (103 million tonnes). Therefore, T&T’s iNDC is 1.7% unconditional and 98.3% conditional. 16

Dominican Republic’s iNDC All conditional. Specific reference to use of markets. 17

Belize’s iNDC Mitigation focused but intend to submit on adaptation at a later stage. Mitigation: Use of REDD+ Biodiversity protection areas 20% reduction in conventional fuel in transport sector by million tonnes CO 2e reduction between 2014 – % reduction in CO2 emissions in energy sector below BAU by

Belize and Markets “Belize is willing to explore the potential of market mechanisms including CDM and other mechanisms under the UNFCCC process that demonstrate environmental integrity, result in real, permanent, additional, verified mitigation outcomes, prevent double counting and be easily accessible.” 19

Grenada’s INDC “Grenada commits to reducing its Greenhouse gas emissions by 30% of 2010 by 2025, with an indicative reduction of 40% of 2010 by 2030.” Sectors: Electricity, Transport, Waste, Forestry 100% of GHG emissions (economy wide) “Grenada currently uses no market mechanisms but is willing to explore the potential of market mechanisms and other mechanisms under the UNFCC process that demonstrate environmental integrity.” 20

Barbados’ INDC “Barbados intends to achieve an economy-wide reduction in GHG emissions of 44% compared to its business as usual (BAU) scenario by In absolute terms, this translates to a reduction of 23% compared with the baseline year, As an interim target, the intention will be to achieve an economy-wide reduction of 37% compared to its business as usual (BAU) scenario by 2025, equivalent to an absolute reduction of 21% compared to 2008.” Energy and waste sectors (88% of emissions) covered in iNDC (note transport considered part of energy sector). Renewable energy to meet 65% of peak electricity demand by Intend to use the CDM and NAMAs 21

Barbados’ INDC cont. No direct reference to conditionality. Use of a per capita metric to show fairness: “All of the country’s identified mitigation actions are being targeted by the INDC, which will result in per capita emissions of 4.8 tonnes CO2e in 2030 (compared to 6.6 tonnes CO2e in 2008), consistent with the projected global average emissions per capita in 2030 required to meet the 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels target.” 22

Dominica’s INDC “Dominica commits to progressively reduce total gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 2014 levels (164.5 Ggs est.) at the following reduction rates: 17.9% by 2020; 39.2% by 2025; and 44.7% by By 2030, total emission reductions per sector will be as follows: Energy industries – 98.6% (principally from harnessing of geothermal resources); Transport – 16.9%; Manufacturing and construction – 8.8%; Commercial/institutional, residential, agriculture, forestry, fishing – 8.1%; Solid waste – 78.6%. Dominica intends to introduce market-based mechanisms to promote energy conservation/efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector principally through incentives to promote the import of hybrid vehicles. “ “This contribution is conditional upon receiving timely access to international climate change financing, technology development and transfer, and capacity building support for priority adaptation and mitigation measures.” 23

Guyana’s INDC Partly conditional. Conditional: Energy sector – 52 MT CO 2 (increase RE by 20% by 2025) and implementation of part of the planned reductions in the forestry sector. Up to 2025 “With the current state of carbon markets, Guyana does not foresee using this source at this time, but the door is open to use carbon markets in the future, subject to robust MRV systems to ensure environmental integrity.” 24

Maldives INDC “Maldives intends to take actions and undertakings to reduce unconditionally 10% of its GHG emissions (under a BAU) by the year These actions and undertakings could be scaled-up to 24% in a conditional manner, in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by availability of financial resources, technology transfer and capacity building.” No reference to use of markets. (JCM?) 25

Seychelles’ INDC Economy wide (except LULUCF) – 95% of emissions ktCO2e in 2025 and 188 ktCO2e in 2030 relative to baseline emissions. Baseline: BAU projections from 2010 for energy & transport; 2012 for solid waste. Estimated cost of US$ 309M. Partly conditional on receiving climate financing- GCF. No intention to use markets. 26

Benefits from integrating international crediting mechanisms into iNDCs from SIDS Sends a clear signal that SIDS support the use post 2020 of market mechanisms like a reformed CDM. Clear eligibility criteria KP-like transparency and accounting rules Achieves net mitigation benefits Share of proceeds to adaptation funding for developing countries Supplemental 27

Benefits from integrating international crediting mechanisms into iNDCs from SIDS Allows SIDS to submit ambitious but conditional iNDCs that have the potential to transform their economies from being dependent upon imported fossil fuels. iNDCs from SIDS should emphasise the economic and sustainable development co-benefits that could be derived from the decarbonisation of their economies. 28

Benefits from integrating international crediting mechanisms into iNDCs from SIDS Takes advantage of the significant differences in mitigation costs (cost to reduce a tonne of CO 2e ) between some developed and developing countries. Tradable permits establish a price for carbon and harness the power of market forces. Can be a significant source of potential capital for small islands. 29

Thank you 30