Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007

Norges Bank Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Forecasts

Norges Bank 3 House prices 1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month growth 2). January 2003 – January ) Median price for dwellings 2) 3-month moving average Housing starts Existing dwellings New dwellings Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 4 10-year yields in different countries Per cent. 1 January 2006 –12 March 2007 Source: Reuters EcoWin Norway US Germany Sweden UK

Norges Bank 5 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank Government bond yields Yield curve US 13 March month 6-month

Norges Bank 6 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 13 March January 2007 Sweden UK Policy rates internationally - actual and expected at 23 January and 13 March 2007 Norway

Norges Bank 7 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January March 2007 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 19 January March 2007

Norges Bank 8 Implied volatility in the foreign exchange market (GRI) and the US equity market (VIX) 2 January 2001 – 13 March 2007 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin) and Norges Bank Implied volatility in the foreign exchange market Implied volatility of US equities

Norges Bank 9 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 22 January March ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2010 Average March 2007

Norges Bank 10 Various inflation indicators 12-month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI

Norges Bank 11 CPI-ATE Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/06 (broken line). 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) The CPI-ATE and CPI-ATED were adjusted for day care rates in 2006 Domestically produced goods and services Imported consumer goods CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 12 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) Labour market In 1000s of persons, seasonally adjusted. January 2002 – February ) The changes to the LFS have resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and This affects the seasonally adjusted monthly figures from December 2005 onwards. LFS unemployment Registered unemployed LFS employment 1) Unemployment

Norges Bank 13 Business tendency survey Capacity utilisation in manufacturing. Per cent Q Q4 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 14 Order backlogs and new orders in manufacturing Unrevised figures. Index = Q Q4 Source: Statistics Norway Order backlogs New orders

Norges Bank 15 Enterprise sector credit 1) and liquid assets 2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2000 – January 2007 (C3 to December) Source: Statistics Norway Total credit (C3) Money supply (M2) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2).

Norges Bank 16 Enterprise sector credit 1) and liquid assets 2) Holdings. In billions of NOK. January 2000 – January 2007 (C3 to December) Source: Statistics Norway Total credit (C3) Money supply (M2) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2).

Norges Bank 17 House prices and household debt Percentage change on same month/quarter previous year. Per cent. January February 2007 House prices Household debt (C2) Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Real estate industry Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 18 Household net interest-bearing debt and net financial assets In billions of NOK Q1 – 2006 Q3 Source: Statistics Norway Net interest-bearing debt 1) 1) Total debt less bank deposits 2) Total assets less total debt Net financial assets 2)

Norges Bank 19 Monetary policy strategy The key policy rate should lie in the interval 4 – 5 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Report on 27 June 2007, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections.

Norges Bank 20 Projected inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario Per cent Q1 – 2010 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Output gap CPI-ATE CPI

Norges Bank 21 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank The baseline scenarios in IR 3/06 and MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 Output gap Sight deposit rate MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 CPI-ATE MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 CPI

Norges Bank 22 Norges Bank's and the market's path for the overnight deposit rate At 13 March 2007 Market 13 March 2007 Market before IR 3/06 (31 Oct) Baseline scenario MPR 1/07 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 23 Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007