RESTRICTED Preparing for the Future Jonathan Capstick

RESTRICTED Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future 2

RESTRICTED Looking to the Future: misconceptions 3 Predictions Come True Technology Solves One Future First World Comes First Space 1999: living on the Moon

RESTRICTED But we know about some key risks 4 Unavoidable climate change Risks of not cutting emissions Population Increases Peak Oil

RESTRICTED Protect & Survive 5 “The danger posed by climate change cannot be denied Future generations will look back and wonder why we refused to act Why we failed to pass on an environment that was worthy of our inheritance.” President Obama Global warning: Sydney dust storm just the beginning

RESTRICTED Adaptation vs mitigation – the balance Adaptation and Mitigation. We cannot have one without the other. We filled the cup – we need to deal with the consequences This is a key principle of Stern

RESTRICTED What is adaptation? Adaptation is any adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Current climate Extent of Climate Change The climate and weather variables interact Vulnerability Impact Consequence Costs and Benefits Protect Retreat Live with Resilience 7 UnderstandingAssessingAction

RESTRICTED Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future 8

RESTRICTED Evidence: Projections  Copenhagen  UK’s 80% goal  Prepare for the impacts  Protect  Seize opportunities  Common Goals 9 Ancient glaciers are disappearing faster than ever (24 th Sept)

RESTRICTED Strategic Planning: Risks and Opportunities 10 VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Some climate variable Probability

RESTRICTED Emissions Pathways 11 IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% GHG Increase GtCO2e Where we are now

RESTRICTED Range of Futures 12 Temp Rise degC Global Average Temperatures Where we are heading IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low

RESTRICTED What are they based on? Where we need to be 13 Temp Rise degC Global Average Temperatures Some change is certain

RESTRICTED 2080s – A Possible Future Significant Changes Our houses, infrastructure and natural environment are not adapted Changes to how we use land, water International effects 14

RESTRICTED Summer average temperature 15 3 to 4ºC increase 4 to 5ºC increase 2 to 3ºC increase 2080s +3.9ºC 2040s +2.3ºC 2020s +1.6ºC South-East England central estimate Medium emissions But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up to 10ºC higher Unlikely to be less than C or greater than C for SE 2080s

RESTRICTED Summer Temperatures in context 16 Source Met Office Hadley Centre Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures 2040s 2060s 2003 We are already committed to this from past emissions alone people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential

RESTRICTED Summer rainfall to 30% decrease 30% to 40% decrease 17 10% to 20% decrease 2080s -23% 2040s -13% 2020s -7% South West central estimate Medium emissions Unlikely to be less than -49% or greater than +6% for SW, 2080s

RESTRICTED Winter rainfall 18 10% to 20% increase 20% to 30% increase 18 0% to 10% decrease 2080s +16% 2040s +10% 2020s +6% North West central estimate Medium Emissions But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North Unlikely to be less than +3% or greater than +35% for NW, 2080s

RESTRICTED Sea level rise 19 High++ scenario: 2100 Rises up to 1.9 m cm cm 19 Central EstimatePossible Outcome

RESTRICTED Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future 20

RESTRICTED What are we doing already? 21

RESTRICTED Adaptation Team – Our Framework Government Programme. Green Book DAPs Statutory Guidance Regional/local action Adaptation Sub- Committee 56 LAAs NI188 UK Projections National Risk Assessment Providing Evidence Setting National Framework Embed Across Govt Raising Awareness Generating Action

RESTRICTED Understand the level of risk and compared with others Prioritise adaptation policy Assess the costs and benefits of adaptation actions Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) National – Regional - Local

RESTRICTED Adaptation Reporting Power 24 key sectors to report on the impacts to them of climate change Primary lever for Govt Consultation just ended Current Vulnerability to Climate Change Responsible for National Infrastructure No Existing Comprehensive Regulation Relating to Adaptation Energy Water Electronic communications Emergencies Health & social care Transport Environment Energy Water Electronic communications Emergencies Health & social care Transport Environment

RESTRICTED Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future 25

RESTRICTED Website LRAP Climate Change Act UKCIP NI188 Guidance LA support /22008 Projections launch & rollout Adaptation Sub- Committee Statutory Guidance Adpt Sub Committee 1 st report CC Risk Assessment National Programme Adaptation in the Short Term Departmental Adaptation Plans General Election Regional Strategies

RESTRICTED No Fate But What We Make 27 Ambassadors for action on Climate Change Providing Help to others Working together