EcoTipping Points Systems Thinking for Sustainability Gerry Marten

Do you think environmental and social problems are easy or difficult?

How are environmental and social problems difficult?

Environmental problems are powerful and complex Overwhelmingly complex (hard to know what to do). Overwhelming social and ecological forces. Attempts to solve the problems: “swimming against the current”.

Albert Einstein “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”

Systems thinking is about connections and change Things usually stay the same, but sometimes they change a lot. Tipping Point: A threshold for dramatic change. “Levers” – Actions that push change past a tipping point. Connections – Chain of effects from the lever to other parts of a system.

Levers Can you think of examples of small changes leading to larger changes?

Success story Two parts: 1)Decline (“Negative tip”) 2)Restoration (“Positive tip”) Success stories offer lessons about how to achieve a turnabout from decline to restoration.

VIDEO EcoTipping Points Success Story: Escaping the Pesticide Trap (India) Part 1: “Negative Tip”

Change happens because of connections.

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Feedback loops (change makes more change) Trace some feedback loops (vicious cycles) in the negative tip diagram. A B DC

VIDEO EcoTipping Points Success Story: Escaping the Pesticide Trap (India) Part 2: “Positive Tip”

Do success stories like this happen where you live? If not, do you think they can happen?

“EcoTipping Point” lever Eco-technology (Non-Pesticide Management) Appropriate social organization to put the eco-technology into practice. Non-Pesticide Management generated a chain of far-reaching effects to cause a switch from unsustainable to sustainable.

Put in the arrows and write the direction of change (“more” or “less”)

Trace some feedback loops (virtuous cycles) in the positive tip diagram.

“EcoTipping Point” lever Reversed vicious cycles to form virtuous cycles. Created additional virtuous cycles and spin-offs (“Success breeds success”), reinforcing restoration and locking it into sustainability.

Lesson from the story Solving problems is not simply treating the “symptoms.” It’s not even tracing back from “symptoms” to “root causes” and fixing the “root causes”. “Symptoms” and “root causes” are all connected in mutually reinforcing circles (feedback loops), which “drive” the problem.

Lesson from the story Reversing vicious cycles may be difficult because the vicious cycles can be very strong. But anything less is “swimming against the current”. Good news: Once reversed, the same feedback loops drive restoration with as much force as they drove decline.

What does it take to reverse the vicious cycles? What were some of the “keys to success” in the “Escaping Pesticide Trap” story?

What does it take to reverse the vicious cycles? How did each of the “Ingredients for Success” in the handout appear in the “Escaping Pesticide Trap” story?

What does it take to reverse the vicious cycles? “Ingredients for success”: Outside stimulation and facilitation Local democratic institutions with persistent local leadership Co-adaptation between social system and ecosystem – “Social commons for environmental commons”

Ingredients for success “Letting nature do the work” Rapid results – quick payback to stimulate commitment A powerful symbol to mobilize community support Overcoming social obstacles. Autonomy helps to cope with “social complexity”

Overcoming social obstacles Competing demands for people’s attention, energy, and time Dysfunctional dependence on the status quo People threatened by innovation Outsiders grab valuable resources Lack of local autonomy

Ingredients for success Social/ecological diversity. More choices mean more possibilities for good choices. Social/ecological memory (tradition) Building resilience (adaptive capacity)

Epilogue: Bt-cotton Genetically modified (“GMO”) cotton contains a gene for Bacillus thuringiensis toxin. The toxin kills cotton bollworms when they eat cotton. Bt-cotton became very popular in India (2005 → Present) Farmers must buy the seed from Monsanto each year.

Bt-cotton The cotton bollworm is now resistant to Bt-cotton in some places. Recently, there has been a short supply of Bt-cotton, so the seed price is very high, and some farmers can’t get it. Farmers are losing money, and suicides have increased.

Group work Think of an environmental or social problem of particular interest to you. Draw a “negative tip” diagram that shows the interconnected vicious cycles driving decline. Be prepared to explain the “negative tip” diagram: the arrows and the vicious cycles that are driving change.

Group work Using the negative tip diagram, think of one or more points of intervention (i.e., action: EcoTipping Point “lever”) to turn the decline around to restoration. Think how to make the lever effective by means of “ingredients for success.

address: EcoTipping Points Website: One hundred success stories Explanation of the principles “How Success Works” educational package Human Ecology book: