Globoil 29 September Jonathan Grange

 An innovative international brokerage business specializing in physical agricultural commodities with offices in Montreux, Madrid, Istanbul, Hamburg, Georgetown, Mumbai  Product origination: Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, EU)  Destination: consumer business in the Mediterranean to Turkey, through the Middle East to North Africa, Spain, Italy and Greece & SE Asia  A diverse client base including farmers, originators, trading houses, importers, processors and consumers. Cereals Wheat, Corn, Barley, Rye, Millet Oilseeds Soybeans, Sunflower seeds, Rapeseeds, Linseeds Feedstuffs Sunflower meal, Rape meal, Wheat Bran, Rice bran, Sugar Beet Pulp, Soybean meal Pulses Yellow peas, Feed peas, Chick Peas Vegetable oils Sunflower oil, Rape oil, Soya oil Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Global Agri Outlook Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Agenda  Macro economic factors  Supply  Logistics  Demand  Technology  Conclusion Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Macro economic factors  Geo Politics  Interest rates  FX  Energy Prices  Fund activity Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Geo Politics  China – slowdown / S China sea  India - next motor  Industrial Commodity producers - price hit  Russia – punching above weight  M East – non functioning states, except Iran Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Interest Rates  Global growth China – hard landing / transformation US – energy dividend India - future motor EU – deflation risk like Japan, immigrants?  Fed Policy Employment measure  Inflation / deflation  Ag industry risk Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

35 years Interest Rates – US T Bond (10y) Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

FX  Mega Trend  Producer / Consumer effect  US$ / CRB Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

US$ Index – 40 years Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

FX  Mega Trend  Producer / Consumer effect  US$ / CRB Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

US$ / Brazil Real Jonathan Grange 18 June 2015

FX  Mega Trend  Producer / Consumer effect  US$ / CRB Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

US$ Index / CRB Jonathan Grange 18 June 2015

Energy Prices  Changing world flows  Fracking – US exports  OPEC - Saudi  Efficiency / alternatives Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

WTI Crude Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

US Natural Gas Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Fund Activity  Mass of money – US$ 350 bln  Asset class  Macro driven - CTA  Market volatility Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Fund Activity Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Fund Returns Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Supply  Weather  Crops - Area / Growing conditions  Farmer selling  Origin competition Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Supply – Weather  N Hemisphere  El Nino Forecast So Far Possibilities Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Weather – El Nino Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Supply  Crops - Area / Growing conditions  Profitability  Switching  Devaluation  Logistics, Rent, Labour, Admin  Oil price Fuel, fertilizer, Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Matif Wheat Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Soybean / Corn Chicago Monthly (2 nd month) Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Supply  Farmer selling Farm is ‘rich’ Local currency values Technology moving fast  Origin competition Multi origins with good availabilities Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Logistics  Freight rates  US Transport & Elevation capacity - full  Black Sea Floating Elevators Domestic transport  S. America - Strikes / Elevation Capacity Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Baltic Tanker Clean Index Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Demand  Calorific intake  Biofuels  India  Consumer behaviour / Pipeline effect Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

World Grain Demand Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

US Biofuels Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Technology  EU / China / Turkey GMO acceptance – France  Euro Fracking  China / Turkey Testing  Quality management – complexity Sustainability Traceability Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Conclusion  ‘Normal’ weather except El Nino  Consistent crops  ‘Normal’ Demand - slowing  Growing stocks - Stocks Use ratios Govt stocks vs Just in time  Role of the market  Price outlook Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Global Stocks – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (mln mt) Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Stocks / Use Ratios – Global Wheat & Corn (%) Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Stocks / Use Ratios – Global Soybean & Palm (%) Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

CBOT Corn Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

CBOT Wheat Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

CBOT Soybeans Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Crude Palm oil - Monthly Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

Thank you for your attention Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015