CHRISTINE B. WILLIAMS BENTLEY COLLEGE WALTHAM, MASSACHUSETTS THE HARVARD NETWORKS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE CONFERENCE JUNE 13-14, 2008 The Internet as a Grassroots Organizing Tool: Exploring the Role of Social Networks in the 2008 Presidential Nomination Contest

Studying the Role of Social Networks The questions:  How are social networks being used in election campaigns- by voters, campaigns, interest groups…?  What impact are social networks having on the election- campaign strategies, voter turnout & choices, outcomes…? The challenges:  Data access: proprietary information; privacy concerns  Methodology: untangling causality, temporal compounding, Complex models (number of variables, interactions)  A new and evolving phenomenon; insufficient data points

The Research Project Previous studies  Which kinds of candidates activated their Facebook profiles? (Gubernatorial candidates, competitive races, better financed, challengers, Democrats)  Is there a relationship between the number of Facebook supporters and candidates’ vote share? (Yes: especially for open seats, youth vote and caucus outcomes) Current study  What does the number of supporters a candidate has within a social network tell us? 1. How do supporter numbers track over time, across candidates? 2. How do supporter numbers relate to other traditional and online indicators of candidate strength? 3. How do supporter numbers relate to candidates’ vote shares?

Findings 1. The number of supporters for each candidate on MySpace and Facebook was highly consistent from July 2007 to June 2008, but showed more variation over time for YouTube.  Candidates with a strong social network presence see it erode, albeit slowly, after successive electoral losses (Paul, Edwards); victories build candidates’ supporter base much more quickly (McCain, Huckabee).

Figure 1 Data provided by tubemogul.com

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Findings (continued) 2. Facebook supporter numbers should be interpreted as responses to the external political environment, not as previewing and documenting shifts in momentum on the ground.  In general, the winning candidate or an unexpected strong showing nets a surge in Facebook supporters and YouTube viewership after the primary or caucus victory, but even losers benefit from increased interest in the early contests. Conclusion:  These trends suggest that new media and social networks in particular mirror traditional media effects: frontrunners benefit more than maverick challengers or those in the lower tier.

Table 1

Figure 6 Data provided by tubemogul.com

Findings (continued) 3. In the lead up to Iowa and New Hampshire, social network supporter numbers provide insights into candidate viability on a par with national poll standings and campaign fundraising.  The relationships among indicators of candidate standing strengthen and converge over time. By the conclusion of the nomination contest in June, intercorrelations are all about +.9.

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Findings (continued) 4. In Super Tuesday primaries, the strongest relationships with vote share are national poll standings, volume of traditional media coverage and Blog Buzz. 5. Grassroots media are in tune with grassroots election vehicles.  The national polls and volume of traditional media coverage got Super Tuesday caucus outcomes wrong: Blog Buzz and Facebook were the ones actually “on the money” showing the highest correlations with candidates’ actual vote shares. 6. Weak correlations between fundraising and election outcomes for both caucus and primary states belie conventional wisdom that only the best financed candidates can compete effectively when many states hold their contests on the same day.

Table 5

Next Steps Continue data collection and analysis Academic papers, reports & press releases archived at American Political Science Association annual meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, August 28-31, “What Is a Social Network Worth? Facebook and Vote Share in the 2008 Presidential Primaries” Workshop on "YouTube and the 2008 Election Cycle" to be held at the University of Massachusetts Amherst in late Spring 2009 and intended to lead to a special issue of the Journal of Information Technology & Politics.