OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Management corridoio.zero Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Exchanges with the Balkans and the Mediterranean Region 4th Management Board Meeting Milano, Italy December 19-20, 2006

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Tools overview Stream Scenarios WRM WRM Optimization DMC RRM LUC Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Water Resources Model Generation of 1 or more hydrological scenarios S S C R D D D E S E d d d c c c S= start node D= demand node C= control node R= reservoir E= end node d = diversion node c = confluence node 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Baseline Awareness campaign Technological WRM Optimization Scenarios 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Baseline Awareness campaign Technological WRM Optimization Scenarios 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Instruments as levers to generate variations, evolutions Contraints as filters to cut off unacceptable solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Baseline Awareness campaign Technological WRM Optimization Scenarios 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Discrete MultiCriteria Awareness campaign Baseline Technological 1 efficient solution 1 efficient solution 1 efficient solution Criterion i Criterion j Criterion i Criterion j Criterion i Criterion j 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 A tool to navigate among alternatives Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

efficient Solution baseline 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Application of the same scenarios in different basin efficient Solution awareness efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution technol. efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution awareness efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution technol. efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution awareness efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution technol.... Case 1 Case 2 Case n... Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Which is the effectiveness of an infrastrucutural intensive program in a small coastal basin or in a large inland agricultural one? Which is the effectiveness of a public awareness campaign in the same situations? Is it possible to elicit some general rule? Inter case studies analysis i.e. Best Practices? 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

... In case it is possible to define general behaviours of basins, it would be possible to draw lessons and Best Practices to disseminate in the wider mediterranean area for all other cases with similar characteristics, i.e. WP14 results would be starting points for WP15 subjects. Inter case studies analysis 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

First check: How does choice of criteria and efficient solutions Criterion i Criterion j the efficient solution changes when different (or further) criteria are considered? 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Criterion i Criterion j Starting with 2 criteria 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Criterion i Criterion j Then adding furter ones... 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Criterion i Criterion j The Pareto frontier changes, and the reference point also. 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Moreover, a further check is necessary: At the present time many existing criteria are redundant: This appears from the strong correlation: 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Cost/Benefit Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Criteria available so far are measures of overall behaviour We need to define criteria able to measure sectoral performances or even node specific ones This should be in principle realizable through the on-line Knowledge Base Editor. 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

At least as soon as we learn how to enter it! 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 choice of criteria and efficient solutions Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Comparison and choice of alternatives in the participated activities: -How to compare alternatives: The use of a Pareto frontier is most likely to be not suitable for non-technical stakeholders Criterion i Criterion j 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier On the other side, a direct visualization of performances is much more comprehensible Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Also using stakeholder-specific criteria, not just overall ones … … … Alternative i Criterion2CriterionN … Criterion1Criterion2CriterionN Alternative j … Criterion1 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier In collective workshops Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier In collective workshops Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier In one-to-one activities proposed by the case-study partner to stakeholders Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Esploration of the Pareto frontier Through interviews and questionnaires Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodol ogical partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise". Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodol ogical partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise". Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodol ogical partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise". Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Criterion i Criterion j The "optimal consensual solution“ can be compared with the one identified by technicians using only overall criteria. This may reveal hidden conflicts not shown by basin- scale performances. Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Distribution patterns can be searched, to see if sectoral- specific preferred alternatives or negotiatied solution ones assume common shapes in the hyper-space of criteria. 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Baseline Awareness campaign Technological Possible extension of optimization approach 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Possible extension of optimization approach 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Possible extension of optimization approach 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

Awareness campaign Baseline Technological 1 efficient solution 1 efficient solution 1 efficient solution Criterion i Criterion j Criterion i Criterion j Criterion i Criterion j 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 No more separate optimizations... Possible extension of optimization approach Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 No more separate optimizations... Possible extension of optimization approach Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

...but just different regions on the same Pareto frontier 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Criterion i Criterion j Possible extension of optimization approach Technological Baseline Awareness Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

WP 14 - Deliverables D14.1 – Decision Analysis Report (Draft Release by ESS) D14.2 – Stakeholder Involvement (Proposal of Table of Contents by CZERO) OPTIMA WP 14 Evaluation: Post Optimal Analysis 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

D14.2 Stakeholder Involvement 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1 Participation in Discrete Multi Criteria phase 1.2 Participation Tools 2.OPTIMISATION SCENARIOS 2.1 Selected Sets of Alternatives (for each CS) 2.2 CS Cross-analysis of Optimisation Scenarios 3.CRITERIA AND OPTIMISATION STRATEGIES 3.1 Selected Criteria (for each CS) 3.2 Constraints (for each CS) 3.3 From Criteria to Objectives 3.4 CS Cross-analysis of Criteria and Objectives 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

D14.2 Stakeholder Involvement 4.DECISION MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS 4.1 Choice of Solution Space (for each CS) 4.2 Methods for Exploration of Pareto Fronteer 4.3 Elicitation of Stakeholder Preference Structure(s) 4.4 CS Cross-analysis 5.SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (to be detailed) 5.1 Sensitivity & Robustness Analysis of solutions (for each CS) 5.2 CS Sensitivity Cross-analysis 5.3 CS Robustness Cross-analysis 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

D14.1-2: open questions 1.Sharing D14.2 approach: it is focused on methodology (participative process in WP14 activities) and not on tools (D16.2 – Guidelines for SH active involvement) 2.Integration and/or moving parts from D14.1 to D14.2 (and vice-versa?) 3.Integration, synergies and cross- references with D15 4.Contributions from CS Partners 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments

End Thank you for the attention! 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006 Analysis intra-cases Exploration and negotiation Tools overview Practical tools D14 Index proposal Analysis inter-cases Possible developments