On Disciplinary Fragmentation and Scientific Progress Stefano Balietti, Michael Mäs, and Dirk Helbing ETH Zurich, Chair of Sociology in particular Modeling.

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Presentation transcript:

On Disciplinary Fragmentation and Scientific Progress Stefano Balietti, Michael Mäs, and Dirk Helbing ETH Zurich, Chair of Sociology in particular Modeling and Simulations Social Simulation Conference – Barcelona, ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation

Research Questions  Why are some disciplines more fragmented into conflicting schools of thoughts than others ?  Why do disciplinary fragmentation and limited scientific progress seem to correlate ?

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification Isaac Newton ( ) Unified celestial and terrestrial forces with the law of gravity.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification James Maxwell (1831 – 1879) Unified electricity and magnetism in one single force called electromagnetism.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification Albert Einstein ( ) Unified the Newtonian theory of gravitation and his special relativity with the theory of general relativity.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Physics: a Path of Unification Steven Weinberg (1933) Unified, on a subatomic level, the strong force, and the weak force, and the electromagnetic force in once single model called the Standard Model.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation The Social Science Archipelago

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation The Social Science Archipelago  Science is composed of an archipelago of typically smallish and highly cohesive communities (Liljeros 2010).  High between-, low within-group variance.  Different social norms apply to different communities.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Fragmentation in Social Sciences H. Game Theory and Society Zurich, “Analytical Foundation of Sociological Game Theory” With the sole exception of economics, the social sciences are still missing a core theory that everybody acknowledges. De Langhe R (2009) Mainstream economics: Searching where the light is. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 32: 137–150.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Research Questions  Why are some disciplines more fragmented into conflicting schools of thoughts than others ?  Why do disciplinary fragmentation and limited scientific progress seem to correlate ?

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Research Questions  Why are some disciplines more fragmented into conflicting schools of thoughts than others ?  Why do disciplinary fragmentation and limited scientific progress seem to correlate ?

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation References  Vicsek et Al. (1995) “Novel type of phase transition in a system of Self-Driven particles”. Physical Review Letters 75: 1226–1229  Hegselmann R., Krause U. (2006) “Truth and cognitive division of labour: First steps towards a computer aided social epistemology.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 9: 1–28.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Description  Scientists explore a 2-dimensional epistemic space of possible answers to a research question  The movement represents the approach  The position represents the current view  Simultaneously exposed to 3 forces:  Attraction towards the ground truth  Social influence of related opinions  Randomness (Noise)

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Formal Model

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Formal Model

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Formal Model

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Formal Model Position NoiseAngular Noise

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model parameters  Ground Truth – Strength of attraction τ  Social Influence:  Radius of interaction R  Strength of social influence α  Noise:  Intensity position noise ε  Intensity angular noise σ

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Ideal-Typical Model Outcomes

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Ideal-Typical Model Outcomes

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Ideal-Typical Model Outcomes

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Ideal-Typical Model Outcomes

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Ideal-Typical Model Outcomes

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Agents move randomly in the epistemic space

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Agents enter each other interaction areas

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Agents approaches are updated by social influence

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained New approach is weighted average of own approach and average approach within interaction radius

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained New approach has a new direction and intensity

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Approach is updated immediately

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Update of approaches continues for other agents

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained B and C are both within A's interaction radius

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained A's approach was reduced by social influence

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Approach is updated immediately

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Also B's velocity vector is reduced by social influence

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Approach is updated immediately

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained B and A form a cluster, C leaves interaction areas

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Approaches become increasingly more similar

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Ground truth is now introduced

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Agents are pulled back towards the ground truth...

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained … until the velocity of the approaches equals the distance from ground truth

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Position noise is now introduced

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Perturbs the relative position of agents in the cluster

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained but on average the distance from truth stay the same

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Angular noise is now introduced

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Perturbs the direction of agents' approaches

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Model Dynamics Explained Social influence reduce differences in approaches and agents move closer to ground truth

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Structural Variables  Strong signal from ground truth (++)  Large interaction radius (++)  Angular noise (++)  Strong social influence (+)  Fragmentation (-)  Clustering (-)

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Correlation Fragmentation and Scientific Progress

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Structural Variables Social interactions leads to clusters Clusters move agents closer to truth Angular noise keeps agents continuously slightly mis-aligned Diversity of approaches is preserved

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Structural Variables Social interactions leads to clusters Clusters move agents closer to truth Angular noise keeps agents continuously slightly mis-aligned Diversity of approaches is preserved Social interactions and peer disagreement are two key mechanisms to promote progress

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation

Simulation Experiment 2  Randomly assigned agents to c clusters  Clusters were placed equally spaced on a circle of radius d with the ground truth in the center  Varied c to manipulate the degree of fragmentation  Measured time necessary to form consensus on the ground truth (75% within radius 0.05 units)  Varied d to manipulated the degree of progress  Measured the average number of clusters at consensus share 50%

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Simulation Experiment 2

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Fragmentation on Progress Fragmentation hampers scientific progress

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Progress on Fragmentation Scientific progress has no effect on fragmentation

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Fragmentation and Progress  Fragmentation slows down scientific progress  Progress does not have an effect on fragmentation

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Fragmentation and Progress  Fragmentation slows down scientific progress  Progress does not have an effect on fragmentation  Both structural variables and fragmentation affect scientific progress

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Fragmentation and Progress  Fragmentation slows down scientific progress  Progress does not have an effect on fragmentation  Both structural variables and fragmentation affect scientific progress  It might be that the structural variables only affect fragmentation, that in turn slows down progress

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Fragmentation and Progress  Fragmentation slows down scientific progress  Progress does not have an effect on fragmentation  Both structural variables and fragmentation affect scientific progress  It might be that the structural variables only affect fragmentation, that in turn slows down progress  To test this hypothesis we performed Baron and Kenny (1986) mediation analysis

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Mediation Analysis Baron and Kenny (1986)  Step 1: Regress progress on structural variables (R, σ, and τ )  Step 2: Regress fragmentation on structural variables (R, σ, and τ )  Step 3: Regress progress on fragmentation and structural variables (R, σ, and τ )  If the statistical effect is smaller in Step 3. than in Step 1. the parameter is partially mediated  If the statistical effect is even insignificant, the parameter is completely mediated

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Mediation Analysis Results  The effect of all structural variables on progress is at least partially mediated by fragmentation  The angular noise parameter σ is completed mediated by fragmentation.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Mediation Analysis Results  The effect of all structural variables on progress is at least partially mediated by fragmentation  The angular noise parameter σ is completed mediated by fragmentation  Therefore only the length of the radius of influence R, and the strength of attraction to ground truth τ are actually responsible for the correlation between disciplinary fragmentation and scientific progress.

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Research Questions  Why are some disciplines more fragmented into conflicting schools of thoughts than others ?  Why do disciplinary fragmentation and limited scientific progress seem to correlate ?

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Research Questions  Why are some disciplines more fragmented into conflicting schools of thoughts than others ?  Why do disciplinary fragmentation and limited scientific progress seem to correlate ?

ETH Zürich | Stefano Balietti | | SOMS Chair of Sociology, Modeling and Simulation Thank You Very Much “On Fragmentation and Scientific Progress” Stefano Balietti, ETH Zurich – Chair of Sociology, in particular Modeling and Simulations