SEEM Calibration: Phase II Single Family Heating Energy Regional Technical Forum September 17, 2013 Presented By: Josh Rushton and Adam Hadley Subcommittee Review: August 6, 2013 ***August 6, 2013

Background: Phase I Provided Calibrated T- stat Settings for houses with known heating energy use – 30% of the 1404 RBSA homes were used in calibration, the rest weren’t included because: Incapable of running in SEEM (foundation type, etc.) Non-utility fuel use or equipment (wood, oil, etc.) Poor billing analysis results – Note: Gas-heated homes were included in the calibration Approved May SF RBSA Pie: 1404 Homes

Phase II Purpose is to adjust for electric heating energy in program-like homes. Adjustments need to address: – Non-utility heating sources; – Program-permitted gas heat sources (e.g., gas fireplaces) – Other SEEM Calibration filters To capture effects on program-like homes, the present analysis is based on RBSA homes with: – At least one permanently-installed electric heat source; – No gas, oil, etc. central heating systems (FAF or Boiler); – Note that heat stoves and fireplaces (any fuel) are allowed. Status Update presented at June 2013 Meeting Status UpdateJune 2013 Meeting – Finish analysis and send to subcommittee 3 Single-Family RBSA Pie: 1404 Homes

SubcommitteeSubcommittee Meeting August 6, 2013 – Presentation Presentation – Minutes Minutes – Draft Report Draft Report Summary – Baylon: Recommendations to adjust the regression specification for non-utility fuels; test climate zone’s effect. – Discussion on how to properly interpret the regression results to determine off-grid and gas fuel use for different electric heating systems. – Note while subcommittee was well-attended, Baylon, Hadley, and Rushton did 99% of the talking. 4

Recent Changes Added another variable to account for differences in off-grid heating fuel usage between heating zone 1 and heating zones 2 and 3. This change improved the regression. Added RBSA house weights; removed the “SEEM.data” variable (whose coefficient was marginal to begin with). Off-grid and Natural Gas use will be valued at the retail price of electricity. – This matches the RTF direction given for DHPs at the August RTF meeting. 5

Proposed Regression: Summary (Model fit to RBSA sites with permanently installed electric heating system and without non-electric central heating systems and with Electric Heat > 0 kWh/yr) 6 VariableDefinitionCoeff.EstimateStd. ErrorP-value Intercept C0C Natural log of UA x HDD 65 C1C Natural log of the area of conditioned floor spaceC2C Indicator: Has electric forced-air furnaceC3C Indicator: Has heat pumpC4C Indicator: Non-utility fuel over 40,000 kBtu/yrC5C Indicator: HZ1 and non-utility fuel between 5,000 and 40,000 kBtu/yr. C6C Indicator: Gas heating energy over 5,000 kWh/yrC7C Indicator: Failed SEEM Calibration billing analysis filterC8C

Determining Adjustments (“Typical” Program Screen) 7 Off-Grid Fuel Adjustment 10.2% 4.4% Total Heating kWh Adjustment Off-Grid Fuel Adjustment Natural Gas Adjustment 11.2% 1.6% Total Heating kWh Adjustment Zone 1 Zones 2 & 3 Natural Gas Adjustment

Adjusted Heating kWh (Heating kWh aligned with RBSA electric usage data) 8 VariableDefinitionUnits Annual electric heating energy consumption (fully calibrated to RBSA data). kWh/year Estimate of annual heating energy consumption from calibrated SEEM run (using calibrated t-stat settings). kWh/year Heating kWh adjustment from previous slide (with “typical” program screen, this is 74.8% for zone 1 and 71.9% for zones 2&3). % Example (HZ1) 8000 kWh/yr 74.8% 5984 kWh/yr

Estimating the Value of Off-Grid Fuel Usage 9 VariableDefinitionUnits Value of annual off-grid fuel consumption.$/year Estimate of annual heating energy consumption from calibrated SEEM run (using calibrated t-stat settings). kWh/year Off-grid fuel use factor from slide 7 (for the “typical” program screen, this was 10.2% for heating zone 1; 11.2% for zones 2 & 3). % Cost of off-grid fuel is difficult to determine. Instead, we’re setting the value equal to the retail cost of electricity (average for the 4 PNW states according to EIA). $/kWh Example (HZ1) 8000 kWh/year 10.2% $0.089/kWh $73/year Note: The same methodology will be used to determine the value of Natural Gas Fuel Usage (Using the natural gas fuel use factor from the regression). While it would seem beneficial to convert the kWh savings to therm savings, and enter therm savings into ProCost, the truth is that we don’t know the exact mechanism for gas savings for any particular measure, so stating specific therm savings is unreliable.

Putting it all Together: Example Measure 10 + This example applies to programs with “standard” eligibility criteria: requires some permanently-installed electric heating source and screens out houses with any non-electric central heating system. ProCost Entry: Electric Savings ProCost Entry: Fuel Cost Savings (O&M)

Program Screening Options Principles: Feasible for Programs and Auditable A: Off-grid Heating Equipment Screen – Houses do not have off-grid-fueled (wood, propane, pellets, etc.) heating equipment B: Gas Space Heating Equipment Screen – Houses do not have natural gas space heating equipment. C: Electric Heat Signature Screen – House has an electric heat signature, verified through the RTF-approved screening tool or specification Simple Calculator Inputs: 12 months billing history, maybe weather, too. Need to decide on calculation method. Options: PRISM-like, Winter average > Summer average, Others? Any combination of the three (or none). 11

12 Heating Zone 1 Adjustment Factors Under Alternative Program Screens

Heating Zone 1: All Program Screen Combinations 13

14 KWh Adjustment Factor Program Screen Combination

Zones 2 and 3: All Program Screen Combinations 15

16 KWh Adjustment Factor Program Screen Combination

Discussion Primary Decisions – Does the RTF approve the proposed methodology to determine calibrated heating energy use and savings? – Does the RTF approve the proposed methodology to determine benefits for off-grid and natural gas fuels? Other Questions – Should the RTF post the savings for all of the program options identified (A, B, C, and combinations, pass/fail)? Count of Residential HVAC and Weatherization UES measures will be 27 times what it is today. – Does the RTF want to use the regional-weighted average retail price of electricity as a proxy for the value of off-grid and natural gas fuels (for this specific situation)? 17

Proposed Decision “I _______ move to adopt the Phase II SEEM Calibration for single family homes and use the methodology as proposed for determining electric energy consumption, off-grid fuel and natural gas fuel benefits. The RTF will Use (Not use) the 8 program screening options to populate measure tables for the 27 possible combinations of program screening options and pass/fail outcomes. (Instead, the RTF will use ______.) AND Use (Not use) the regional-weighted average retail price of electricity as a proxy for the value of off-grid and natural gas fuels. (Instead, the RTF will use ______.)” Note: This analysis applies to all single-family SEEM-affected UES measures, except those with their own calibration data (i.e. DHP’s). 18