Media Research The time: 1932 The place: Iowa Event: Election of Sect’y of State Who: Ola Babcock Miller George Gallop’s Mother-In-Law FIRST POLITICAL POLL

The Surveying Industry $1 billion dollar a year business Gallup -Institute of American Public Opinion Now about 300 surveying companies Clients: corporations, candidates, media

Gallop’s Method at first “quota sampling” 1936 Presidential Campaign He predicted FDR’s victory over Alf Landon 1948 Dewey lost to Truman & Gallop realized that he was 5.3% off in his prediction.

Quota Sampling Determine total population Determine key groups Sample groups proportionately

Quota sampling example Total population 100,000 Urban males 40,000 Urban females 30,000 Rural males 15,000 Rural females 12,000 Others 3,000 sample size: 400 urban males 100 urban females 75 rural males 38 rural females 30

Gallop’s New Method Probability Sampling “like making soup” Four Factors: sample size sample selection margin of error confidence level

Sample Selection Magic number = 384 Total population being studied = n “Interval” = n / 384 Examples top of p. 328 10,000 students / 384 = every 26th student (interval)

Probability Sampling Key Variables Sample size The number of people interviewed Sample selection How people are drawn to be interviewed Margin of error Percentage survey may be off mark Confidence level Degree of certainty about accuracy

Evaluating Surveys Associated Press Checklist How many people interviewed? How were they selected? When was survey taken? What was margin of error? How was poll conducted? Mail? Phone? Door to door? How were questions worded? What was the question sequence?

Sample Size for 95% Confidence Level Population Size Infinity 500,000 100,000 50,000 10,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Sample Size 384 383 381 370 357 341 322 278

Margin of Error for Various Sample Sizes For population size Sample Size 384 600 1,067 2,401 9,605 of infinity: Margin of Error 5% points 4% points 3% points 2% points 1% point

Criticisms of Polling Polls can influence undecided voters – Bandwagon effect Politicians watch the polls too much, rather than just doing what’s right.

Gallup’s reply “George Gallop, who died in 1984… (replied that)…good surveys give voice to the ‘inarticulate minority’ that legislators otherwise might not hear.”

Measuring Audience Size Print media – Audit Bureau of Circulations Broadcast media – audience surveys interviews diaries meters

Broadcast ratings Began in 1929 – Archibald Cross, radio 1940’s – Nielsen – demographics: age and gender groups 1950’s Nielson moved into TV ratings