Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment: An Update Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mary M. Cairns, OFCM

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Overview Background JAG/NWFWNA Membership Goals Functional Areas Covered in Assessment Key Activities and Deliverables Assessment Process Preliminary Findings Next Steps

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Problem/need –An abundance of accumulated biomass in forests and rangelands, persistent drought conditions, and encroaching urbanization are contributing to larger, more costly wildland fires –To effectively manage and suppress wildland fires, fire managers need timely, accurate, and detailed fire weather and climate information Background

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM - In 2003, wildland fires in Southern California claimed 22 lives, destroyed 3,600 homes, burned 740,000 acres of land, and caused over $2 billion in property damage –By June 1, 2006 in Texas, wildland fires have claimed 11 lives, destroyed 440 homes, and burned over 5 million acres Background

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Background Western Governors’ Association Policy Resolution 05-04: National Wildland Fire Weather Program, June 2005 –OFCM complete “a National Needs Assessment … for weather information in the wildland fire and prescribed fire decision- making processes…and a framework to meet those needs…” ICMSSR, November 18, 2005 –Action Item : ICMSSR concurred that OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) “… to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information…” JAG/NWFWNA Established December 2005

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Background Need for public service improvements Ecosystem impacts Health affects -- degradation of air/water quality Climate influence National/Homeland security Transportation impacts (surface and aviation) Urgency

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM JAG/NWFWNA Membership –DHS FEMA U.S. Fire Administration –DOC NOAA NIST –DOD –DOE –DOI U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Park Service Bureau of Land Mgmt U.S. Geological Survey Bureau of Indian Affairs –DOT FAA FHWA –EPA –HHS –NASA –USDA U.S. Forest Service –Subject Matter Experts State Foresters Universities Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Goals Conduct a comprehensive review and assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management activities Assess the capabilities of the provider agencies to ensure that needed weather and climate information is available to fire managers and other users Ultimately, raise the critical nature of fire weather to a new level of community awareness

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Functional Areas Covered in Assessment Data Collection, Integrity, Processing and Archival Modeling, Prediction and Data Assimilation Forecast Products and Services Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering and Collaboration Information Dissemination and Technologies User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts Fire Weather Research and Development Funding and Human Resource Considerations Socioeconomic Impacts

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Key Activities and Deliverables –ICMSSR briefing completed (11/18/2005) –JAG established (12/05) –Reviewed federal agency’s wildland fire programs –Identified stakeholders –Develop assessment tool (in draft) –Gather assessment information (including early results) –Identify gaps to meet needs –Complete analysis and develop recommendations for report –Generate draft assessment report (Q1, FY2007) –Plan & conduct workshop for stakeholders’ review (Q1, FY2007) –Complete NWFWNA report (Q3, FY2007)

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Assessment Process Parallel Effort –“Early results” Federal agencies Educators/universities Research community Users/stakeholders –Incident commanders –Fire mangers –Dispatchers –Fire behavior/fire analysts –Smoke jumpers –Emergency management –Industry/private meteorologists –Comprehensive survey questionnaire

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Preliminary Findings Federal Agencies Reactions –Need for dense, quality observational data Surface Greater exploitation of satellite data Expand use of UASs Smart sensor technology – vehicle integrated sensors –Products and services are received in timely manner, however, some need improvement Products need to convey forecast uncertainty (e.g., use of probabilistic guidance) –Better use of climate forecasts in decision making –Complete a comprehensive interagency requirements document –Facilitate the transition of research to operations –Increased partnering/collaboration –Develop strategic plan

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Preliminary Findings (cont.) Education/Outreach –Need for more easily accessed, affordable, climate and weather information and products –Improved technology to support delivery of information –Improve fire weather terminology and educate the public “warning” vs “watch” –Improve information dissemination of fire danger to general public year round –Improve training on fire weather to the firefighter level

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Preliminary Findings (cont.) Atmospheric/Meteorological Research Concerns –Need for high-quality data for research purposes Historical Fire occurrence Air quality –Need for fire weather science focus in agencies Develop an interagency list of fire weather research priorities –Improved climate products and services Establish link with Climate Change Science Program Establish link with the National Integrated Drought Information System –Increase computer modeling capabilities/resources Increased resolution of models Improved modeling in complex terrain –Including winds, thunderstorms, precipitation Improved atmospheric transport and diffusion (smoke), air quality, and fire behavior modeling

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Preliminary Findings (cont.) User/Stakeholder Initial Response –Increased data collection (more surface observations) –Large number of products available, however, many are too general –Products need to be tailored to individual users –Expand incident meteorologist program Spin-up time; locally trained Increase cadre by including other agencies –Increased staffing needs –Improve decision-support tools –Improve coordinated decision support

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Preliminary Findings (cont.) Social Science Aspects –Behavioral response –Economic impacts/cost avoidance –Health impacts –Social scientist role in education –Population dynamics (higher expectations from new, urban background residents)

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Next Steps Interim assessment report Fall 2006 (early results) Comprehensive survey (to reach wider audience) Special Session, 3 rd International Fire and Ecology Congress, November 14, 2006, San Diego, CA Final Product Spring 2007 (WGA Conference)

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM JAG/NWFWNA Web Site

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Questions?