MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series.

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MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 1 Flow of Funds: Net Change in Supply of Stock Index $Billions Quarterly, SAAR S&P 500 MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 2 Flow of Funds: Households Equity Percent Total Financial Assets Percent S&P 500 $Billions MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 3 Flow of Funds: State & Local Government Employee Retirement Funds S&P 500 Equity Percent Total Financial Assets Percent $Billions MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 4 Net Purchases of U.S. Equities by Foreign Investors $Billions Index S&P 500 Quarterly net purchases MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 5 Net Purchases of Foreign Equities by U.S. Investors $Billions Index S&P 500 Quarterly net purchases MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 6 Net Purchases of U.S. Equities by Foreign Investors minus Net Purchases of Foreign Equities by U.S. Investors $Billions Index S&P 500 Quarterly net flows MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 7 Monthly $Billions New Equity Financing 12-Month Total $Billions S&P 500 Index MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 8 Secondary Distributions: Value $Millions Index 52-Week Moving Average NYSE Composite MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 9 Margin Debt versus % of Market Value % of Market Value Margin Debt Prior to January 1997, NYSE figures only $Billions Market Value MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 10 Insider Activity Index S&P 500 Bearish 8-Week Moving Average Bullish MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 11 Individual Buying Power Index Index S&P 500 Buying Power Index MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014 Individual Buying Power Index

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 12 Equity Mutual Funds: Cash Percentage of Net Assets Percent Index S&P 500 Cash Percentage (Monthly) MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 13 Sales (Including Reinvested Dividends) and Redemptions of Equity Mutual Funds Sales Redemptions $Billions S&P 500 Index MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 14 S&P 500 Net Sales (Monthly) Net Sales of Equity Mutual Funds (Including Reinvested Dividends) Including Net Issuance of ETFs after December 2007 $Billions Index MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014 Net Sales (Monthly) Including ETFs

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 15 Net Exchanges into Equity Mutual Funds $Billions Index Net Exchanges (monthly) S&P 500 MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 16 Equity Mutual Funds: Total Flows (including ETFs as of Jan. 2008) $Billions Index Data change as of January 2008 Total Flows (Monthly) S&P 500 MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 17 Equity Mutual Funds: Net Purchases of Common Stock $Billions Index Net Purchases (Monthly) S&P 500 MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 18 S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. Price / Earnings Ratio Dividend Yield P/E Ratio RatioPercent P/E Ratio October 2009 MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014 SPX Index

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 19 ISE 10-Day Index Put/Call Ratio Index Ratio S&P Day Ratio Bearish Bullish MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 20 ISE 10-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio Index Ratio S&P Day Ratio Bearish Bullish MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 21 CBOE 10-Day Index Put/Call Ratio Index Ratio S&P Day Ratio Bearish Bullish MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 22 CBOE 10-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio Index Ratio S&P Day Ratio Bearish Bullish MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 23 Options Clearing Corp. (OCC) Equity Options Premium Put/Call Ratio (with Bull/Bear Line) 4-Week Moving Average Bullish S&P 500 Bearish Index Ratio MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 24 Options Clearing Corp. (OCC) Index Options Premium Put/Call Ratio (with Bull/Bear lines) 4-Wk. Moving Average S&P 500 Bearish Bullish Index Ratio MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 25 Consensus Inc. Bullish Percentage: Equities Bearish S&P 500 Bullish 4-Week Moving Average Index Percent MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 26 Market Vane Bullish Percentage: Equities Bearish S&P 500 Bullish 4-Week Moving Average Index Percent MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 27 Bull/Bear Ratio from Investor’s Intelligence Index Bearish S&P 500 Bullish 4-Week Moving Average Percent MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 28 Bull/Bear Ratio from American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Index Bearish 4-Week Moving Average Bullish S&P 500 Ratio MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 29 NYSE Total Short Interest vs. Short Interest Ratio Percent Billions of Shares Short Interest Ratio Total Short Interest S&P 500 MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010 Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 30 NYSE Short Interest Ratio with Bull/Bear Line Index Percent Short Interest Ratio S&P 500 Bearish Bullish MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2014