Fertilizer Situation & Issues Glen Buckley 2009 Legislative Ag Conference January, 2009

World Nitrogen Price Index (Average 2003 = 100) Source: Green Markets January 2003 Current Long-Term Trend Market spikes to record levels Market collapses

World Nitrogen Demand (MM Metric Tons) Calendar Years Source: Fertecon, CRU, CF % Growth % Growth

World Nitrogen Operating Rate Calendar Years Source: Fertecon, CF MM Tonnes N World operating rates climb to record levels Average Rate = 80.9%

World Natural Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) Calendar Years Source: CERA, Fertecon

U.S. Ammonia and Urea Capacity (Million Tons of Product) Calendar Year Source: Fertecon, CF Change Ammonia % Urea %

Perfect Storm - Up Demand  Crop futures escalate to record levels  World nitrogen import demand soars – concern over supply availability Supply  China drop out of the market  Record level of unexpected plant outages/turnarounds – Russia, Ukraine, Trinidad, Argentina, Middle East  Freight rates jump to record levels  Dollar continues to decline

Source: Fertecon World Urea Prices ($/Tonne) “China export tax”

Perfect Storm - Down  Crop futures plummet  Credit/Financial crisis hits world market  World fertilizer trade demand comes to a complete halt  Freight rates collapse  Inventory in exporting countries soar – force plant closures  Dollar climbs 20%

Average = 936,000 Source: Industry Publications 2.59 MM World Urea Production Outages (MM Tonnes)

U.S. Nitrogen Supply (MM Tons N) Source: USDC, TFI Fertilizer Year Domestic Production Imports “Imports now account for more than half of total U.S. nitrogen supply”

U.S. Dry Urea Supply (Million Product Tons) Fertilizer Year Source: USDOC, IFDC, TFI Domestic Production Imports

U.S. Dry Urea Imports (MM Product Tons) Source: USDC, TFI Fertilizer Year

U.S. UAN Supply (Million Product Tons) Capacity Fertilizer Year Source: USDOC, IFDC, TFI Domestic Production Imports

U.S. UAN 32% Imports (MM Product Tons) Source: USDC, TFI Fertilizer Year

World Phosphate Price Index (Average 2003 = 100) Source: Green Markets January 2003 Current S/D Balance Tightens Market spikes to record levels Market collapses

World DAP/MAP Demand (MM Metric Tons) Calendar Years Source: Fertecon, CRU, CF % Growth % Growth

Source: Fertecon, GM DAP Input Cost Into India ($/Tonne)

Source: Fertecon, FMB India DAP Production Cost ($/Tonne)

Source: TFI, DOC, CF U.S. DAP/MAP Production (000 Tons P 2 O 5 )

Questions?