The Bolivarian Revolution of Hugo Chávez Accomplishments and Trends February 6, 2006

Five Dimensions Generational turnover Generational turnover Phenomena that sustain the new elite Phenomena that sustain the new elite Bolivarian Vision and its use Bolivarian Vision and its use Constraints of the vision Constraints of the vision The Future The Future

I. Generational Turnover

Leadership: Old & New

Quebec Summit (April 2001)

José V. Rangel: odd man out? ( Vice President) Leader of URD in 1960´s Leader of URD in 1960´s Presidential candidate (1973; 1978; 1983) of MAS, MEP, PCV Presidential candidate (1973; 1978; 1983) of MAS, MEP, PCV Implacable hatred of Punto Fijo system and blames USA for its longevity Implacable hatred of Punto Fijo system and blames USA for its longevity

A New Generation of Implementers

II. Phenomena that sustain the new elite Class conflict Class conflict Hostility to western modernization Hostility to western modernization

Caracas: Modern & Western?

Caracas: Poor & Primitive

Phenomena that sustain the new elite: Class Conflict

Other phenomenon that sustain the Bolivarians Memories (some implanted) of venality and incompetence of the defunct liberal democracy regime Memories (some implanted) of venality and incompetence of the defunct liberal democracy regime Revenge against those who benefited from Punto Fijo Revenge against those who benefited from Punto Fijo Anti-Americanism Anti-Americanism

III. The Bolivarian Vision and its Use

Abandon failed ISI policies Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic “Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled because it stimulated desire for western life style that is neither feasible or desirable “Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled because it stimulated desire for western life style that is neither feasible or desirable ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of middle class consumption ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of middle class consumption

Oppose Savage Neo-liberalism Mistaken reliance on free markets to “westernize” Mistaken reliance on free markets to “westernize” Not feasible in Latin America Not feasible in Latin America Not desirable Not desirable

More on the Bolivarian Vision Basic human needs must be made available to all Basic human needs must be made available to all Education Education health care health care Housing Housing Culture Culture Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some things never change) Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some things never change)

Still More on the Bolivarian Vision Disdain for the existing middle class Disdain for the existing middle class Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to exclude the disadvantaged Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to exclude the disadvantaged Emphasis: equality of outcome Emphasis: equality of outcome Highest priority - making the urban slums livable Highest priority - making the urban slums livable

Use of the Bolivarian vision: domestic affairs Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal democracy Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal democracy Failure to reach stated goals Failure to reach stated goals Corruption Corruption Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for selfishness and corruption Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for selfishness and corruption Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to deteriorate Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to deteriorate

Use of the Bolivarian Vision: Taming the Military Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed forces - Chávez changed 45 (75%) in July 2005 Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed forces - Chávez changed 45 (75%) in July 2005 National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top positions) National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top positions) Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. military Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. military asymmetric warfare asymmetric warfare to discourage opposition hope that the Marines will land to discourage opposition hope that the Marines will land Alternative force to regular military Alternative force to regular military

Changes Military Doctrine/Training War College in Los Chorros closed for six months War College in Los Chorros closed for six months Manuals and text books being rewritten Manuals and text books being rewritten Emphasis on asymmetric warfare Emphasis on asymmetric warfare

Use of the Bolivarian vision: International Arena Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States (symbol of Western consumerism) Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States (symbol of Western consumerism) Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence of the United States Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence of the United States Policies that bolster high price for petroleum Policies that bolster high price for petroleum OPEC OPEC China China

Chávez’s Hemispheric Vision: Brazil plays a key role in reducing U.S. Influence

IV. Constraints on Chávez’s Bolivarian “vision” Class conflict emphasis complicates using expertise/talent developed between Class conflict emphasis complicates using expertise/talent developed between Talent necessary to stem deterioration of infrastructure Talent necessary to stem deterioration of infrastructure

Other Constraining Consequences Failure to define role for loyal opposition strengthens option of political change by force Failure to define role for loyal opposition strengthens option of political change by force Discouragement of foreign investment from the North Atlantic – unintended consequence - increases dependence on petroleum income Discouragement of foreign investment from the North Atlantic – unintended consequence - increases dependence on petroleum income “Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on revenue from petroleum “Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on revenue from petroleum

United States government: A Constraint on the Chávez Vision?

USA seen by the Venezuelan people Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied States Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied States Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. 2005) Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. 2005) Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling elite Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling elite Poor Poor Leftist academics Leftist academics

V. The Future

Electoral Panorama: Marginalization of Chávez Opponents Revocatory referendum (August, 15, 2004) 60% for retention Revocatory referendum (August, 15, 2004) 60% for retention Regional and Local elections (October 31, 2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution Regional and Local elections (October 31, 2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution Municipal Council elections (August 7, 2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution Municipal Council elections (August 7, 2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution

National Assembly Elections (December 4, 2005) Unprecedented government control over selection of revolutionary party candidates Unprecedented government control over selection of revolutionary party candidates President’s office maintained a file on each of the 360 candidates offered by the government President’s office maintained a file on each of the 360 candidates offered by the government Exceeded level of centralism/personalism that marked candidate selection under the Punto Fijo regime Exceeded level of centralism/personalism that marked candidate selection under the Punto Fijo regime

National Assembly Elections (December 4, 2005) Opposition Opposition Polling suggested that government would win 80% of seats Polling suggested that government would win 80% of seats Leaders decried tilting of electoral playing field Leaders decried tilting of electoral playing field Concerned over the secrecy of the vote Concerned over the secrecy of the vote Withdrew from the process Withdrew from the process

Eliminating Residues of “bourgeoise democracy” Primary function of National Assembly - to legalize the initiatives of the revolutionary chieftain Primary function of National Assembly - to legalize the initiatives of the revolutionary chieftain Function of the National Assembly will be to assess whether proposed laws are sufficiently revolutionary Function of the National Assembly will be to assess whether proposed laws are sufficiently revolutionary If they are sufficiently revolutionary the National Assembly will expected to pass them If they are sufficiently revolutionary the National Assembly will expected to pass them

2006 Presidential Election and Beyond Scheduled for December 3, 2006 Scheduled for December 3, 2006 Opposition participation “up in the air” Opposition participation “up in the air” Little evidence that the revenge motive is dissipating Little evidence that the revenge motive is dissipating Abandonment of elections as procedures conceived as instruments to bring alternative forces to power? Abandonment of elections as procedures conceived as instruments to bring alternative forces to power?

How Much Pluralism: the Central Government Presidentialism predominates Presidentialism predominates Military Military Unprecedented monitoring of political loyalties Unprecedented monitoring of political loyalties Militias as counterweights Militias as counterweights Chavizistas dominate the national bureaucracy Chavizistas dominate the national bureaucracy Imported oil broke power of PVSA managers Imported oil broke power of PVSA managers Presidential Missions have undercut the traditional bureaucracies Presidential Missions have undercut the traditional bureaucracies

How Much Pluralism: the Regions, Municipalities and Neighborhoods Regional institutions weakened Regional institutions weakened Elected governors have less control over budgets Elected governors have less control over budgets Most governors belong to government political parties Most governors belong to government political parties Municipal level in flux Municipal level in flux Opposition controlled governments bypassed Opposition controlled governments bypassed Lack of clarity on how strong municipal institutions should be Lack of clarity on how strong municipal institutions should be Neighborhood organizations deal mostly with Caracas-based “missions” Neighborhood organizations deal mostly with Caracas-based “missions”

How Much Pluralism: Political & Societal Organized labor slowly being brought to heel Organized labor slowly being brought to heel Urban poor remain supportive Urban poor remain supportive Inclusion has led to perceptions of having a stake in the regime Inclusion has led to perceptions of having a stake in the regime Petroleum revenue has facilitated direct transfer of income from central government Petroleum revenue has facilitated direct transfer of income from central government Poor don’t view their quality of life as having deteriorated under Chávez Poor don’t view their quality of life as having deteriorated under Chávez

How Much Pluralism: Middle Sectors Middle sectors created during Punto Fijo remain opposed or ambivalent Middle sectors created during Punto Fijo remain opposed or ambivalent Easy to ignore in direct democracy Easy to ignore in direct democracy 30% of population (40% depending on the specific public opinion poll) 30% of population (40% depending on the specific public opinion poll) Revolution is beginning to create a supportive middle class Revolution is beginning to create a supportive middle class

How Much Pluralism: Economic Elites Traditional entrepreneurial groups have “adjusted” to the Chavistas Traditional entrepreneurial groups have “adjusted” to the Chavistas Large land owners negotiating sale of a percentage of their holdings Large land owners negotiating sale of a percentage of their holdings Revolution divided on merits of attempting to create a supportive capitalist class Revolution divided on merits of attempting to create a supportive capitalist class Opportunities for multinational corporations based in MERCOSUR countries Opportunities for multinational corporations based in MERCOSUR countries

Overarching Conclusions Political and economic conditions suggest Chávez will strengthen his hold on Venezuela Political and economic conditions suggest Chávez will strengthen his hold on Venezuela Hostility to the United States unlikely to diminish Hostility to the United States unlikely to diminish Core Nature of 21 st Century Socialism Core Nature of 21 st Century Socialism Optimistic – an innovative blend of socialism and free enterprise that reflects the realities of Venezuela (and Latin America) Optimistic – an innovative blend of socialism and free enterprise that reflects the realities of Venezuela (and Latin America) Pessimistic – 21 st Century Ceauşescu’s Romania Pessimistic – 21 st Century Ceauşescu’s Romania