Measuring the Effects of Light Rail Plans in Portland: A Trilogy Gerrit Knaap Professor and Director National Center for Smart Growth University of Maryland

Acknowledgements “Does Planning Matter?” DURP, UIUC – portland.html Lew Hopkins, UIUC Chengri Ding, UMD Paul Hanley, UI Dick Bolen and Carol Hall, Portland Metro

Existing Light Rail System

Knaap, Gerrit J., Chengri Ding, and Lewis Hopkins Does Planning Matter? The Effects of Light Rail Plans on Land Values in Station Areas Journal of Planning, Education, and Research, 21,1:

Research Question Do markets respond to the information content in light rail plans? Research Strategy Determine whether land values in station areas change following the announcement of station locations?

Research Design

Research Design (cont.)

Price Effects of Proximity by Year

Price Effects of Proximity Before and After Plan Announcement

Price Effects of Announcement

Conclusions Using data on vacant land sales in Washington County, Oregon, we examined whether the relationships between land values and proximity to planned station locations changed after the locations of stations were announced. We found that they did. Our empirical results add to the growing body of literature that suggests that plans to invest in transportation infrastructure can affect property values even before the infrastructure is in place.

Conclusions (cont.) Because we examined the impact of transportation plans on vacant land values, however, our results add more. First, our results suggest that information about light rail plans is observed by the development community, capitalized into land values, and is likely to alter the pattern of urban development in light rail station areas. Second our results provide support for a model in which planning is a behavior by a rational local government which can be used to alter urban development patterns for the purpose of increasing social welfare. This suggests plans indeed matter.

Hanley, Paul F. and Gerrit J. Knaap The Spatial Reconfiguration of the Portland Metropolitan Area: A Preliminary Assessment and Baseline Analysis Proceedings of the Conference on Transportation, Land Use and Air Quality, American Society of Civil Engineers, Portland, Oregon, 5/98.

Research Question Is development activity in Portland concentrating in various designated “centers”? Research Strategy Determine whether “centers” are attracting a disproportionate share of building permits, improvement value, or sq.ft of improvements?

Portland’s 2040 Plan

City Centers City Centers contain the most intense forms of development and represent the focal point of commercial, residential and cultural activities.

Regional Centers Regional centers contain intense forms of commercial and governmental activities and should be well served by multiple modes of transportation.

Town Centers Town centers provide services to residents within a 2-3 mile radius,should have a strong sense of community identity, and a pedestrian friendly environment

Mainstreets Like Town Centers, Mainstreets have a commercial identity but should be pedestrian-friendly and strongly linked to adjacent neighborhoods

Neighborhoods Neighborhoods should be primarily residential but might contain locally serving commercial or community centers accessible by foot.

Research Design Measure share of various permits in various types of centers; Compare share of permits to expected share of permits; where Expected share of permits is based on distribution of permits across land use zones and distribution of zones across centers—assuming uniform spatial distribution

Conceptual Framework

Actual to Expected Percent Ratio of Building Permits in all Special Areas by Count, Value, and Square Feet count value sq ft

Ratio of Actual to Expected Percent of Building Permits in all Special Areas by Permit Type Commercial Industrial Multi-Family Single Family

Ratio of Actual to Expected Percent of Commercial Permits by Special Area Average Main Streets Regional Centers Town Centers Transportation Zones

Ratio of Actual to Expected Percent of Multi-Family Permits by Special Area Average Main Streets Regional Centers Town Centers Transportation Zones

Conclusion This examination of the pattern of building permits from 1990 to 1996 suggests that the pattern of permits is consistent with the plan. A disproportionate share of commercial and multiple family permits have been issued in areas designated as regional and town centers, main streets, and transportation zones. It is not clear that the plan caused this pattern of development or that the character of development is indeed transportation oriented. But the results are encouraging.

Conclusions (cont.) Perhaps more importantly, efforts to implement the plan are occurring coincidentally with efforts to monitor the implementation of the plan. The data and methods we use here to provide a preliminary assessment of the implementation of the 2040 plan are far from perfect. We hope, however, that data collection efforts like Metro’s and evaluation efforts like ours will stimulate further advancements in evaluating the implementation of plans.

Knaap, Gerrit J., Lew Hopkins, and Arun Pant Does Planning Matter? Explorations into the Effects of Light Rail Plans on Real Estate Values, Sales, and Building Permits Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Working Paper, 1996

Research Question Are plans for light rail in Portland affecting patterns of development? Research Strategy By displaying development events, use data visualization techniques to observe development patterns over time and space

Conclusions Dynamic data visualization proved to be an effective method of gaining new insights into the development process. Statistical analysis suggests that this is a relationship between the placement of a light rail line and development activity. The relationship, however, may be spurious as development patterns appear to be more profoundly influenced by larger scale factors.

Recommendations GIS data, GIS data, GIS data –Parcel level, regional, historical Think regional, act regional Exploit university resources

Additional References ECONorthwest and Johnson Gardner, Metro Urban Centers: An Evaluation of the Density of Development, 2001, Metro website. Bolen, Richard, Gerrit-Jan Knaap, and Ethan Seltzer, The Regional Land Information System: The Virtual Key to Portland’s Growth Management Success, working paper, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Ding, Chengri, Lewis Hopkins and Gerrit Knaap, Does Planning Matter? Visual Examination of Urban Development Events, Land Lines, 8,1, 1997