Tennessee Economic Outlook Professor Matthew N. Murray UT Center for Business and Economic Research March 29, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Tennessee Economic Outlook Professor Matthew N. Murray UT Center for Business and Economic Research March 29, 2010

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville2 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Real GDP: 2005 to 2012

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville3 Source: CBER-UT, An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee: Tennessee Real GDP: 2005 to 2012

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville4 Growth in Personal Income, Tennessee and the U.S. : 2005 to 2013

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tennessee Nonfarm Employment: January 2008 to January 2010 (seasonally adjusted)

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT. (seasonally adjusted) Tennessee Nonfarm Employment: 2006 to 2012

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville7 Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector: 1999, 2009 & 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville8 Tennessee Manufacturing Employment: 1999, 2009 & 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville9 Tennessee Monthly Total Nonfarm Employment Indexed to Beginning of Recession Note: Employment data are seasonally adjusted. Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville10 TN Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims and Benefits Paid: Jan-07 to Feb-10 Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville11 Less than 10.0% 10.0% to 14.9% Note: County data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15.0% to 19.9% 20.0% or higher Unemployment Rate: January 2010 Tennessee NSA 11.5% United States NSA 10.6% January SA rates: TN 10.7% US 9.7%

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville12 Domestic Migration: 2000, 2007 & 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville13 Tennessee Monthly SA Unemployment Rate Indexed to Beginning of Recession Note: Unemployment rate data are seasonally adjusted. Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville14 Tennessee Building Permits: January 2005 to January 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (as reported in the State of the Cities Data System [SOCDS] database).

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville15 Mortgage Delinquency Rate (90+ Days Past Due): to Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville16 Loans In Foreclosure: to Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville17 Growth in State Quarterly Tax Revenue: October-December 2008 to 2009 (year over year % change) Less than 10.0% -10.0% to -5.0% -4.9% to 0% Greater than 0% No data U.S. -4.1% Source: Calculated by the Rockefeller Institute from Census data.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville18 TN Tax Collections, Total and Sales & Use: January 2007 to February 2010 Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue, Revenue Collections, monthly.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville19 Tennessee Monthly Sales & Use Tax Revenue Indexed to Beginning of Recession Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Tennessee Department of Revenue.

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville20 Actual and Adjusted Total Tennessee Tax Collections as a Share of Personal Income, 1970 to 2009

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville21 Tennessee Revenue Forecast: March 2010 (millions of dollars)

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville22 Total Tennessee Tax Revenues and Revenues as a Share of Personal Income, 2007 to 2019 ←→ History ←→ Cyclical Forecast Trend Forecast ←→ Policy Neutral Scenario Policy Change Scenario

March 2010 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, UT Knoxville23 Center for Business & Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 716 Stokely Management Center 916 Volunteer Boulevard Knoxville, Tennessee phone: fax: