BTV Severe Weather Workshop May 2, 2012

 35 minutes – Moving 19kts – 485 km 2

 60 min – Moving 48kt – 9744 km 2

 Begin incorporating Dual-Pol information into warning process  Beware:  Dual-Pol data are not a magic bullet  Don’t start seeing things in the data that don’t really exist  See great potential for narrowing down location of hail cores for warnings, SVSs and SPSs  Start using ALY dual-pol data until CXX and TYX are upgraded

 Warn based on the meteorology and expected impact  Never assume any place is totally uninhabited, they are just harder to get reports from  Include reports in SVSs  Continue working on self adjustments for 1” hail criteria  Did pretty well last year  Only 3 SVRs issued that would have verified solely on ¾” criteria  15 SVRs verified with just 1”+ hail and no wind damage (~20% of warnings)

 Be proactive in advertising potential big severe weather days  NWSChat, EM notifications, Web Headlines, Facebook  Meet/Exceed GPRA  Tornado detection/warning remains tough  Need to really learn from each case  Continue to make an effort to storm survey even slightly suspected tornados  Flash Flooding  Keep in mind hydro concerns are watched during severe outbreaks – may take 3 eyes on radar  Lots of events last year, so numbers ended well – but historically we still struggling as an office

 Team Approach to Situational Awareness  short term person should be on it, but during core grid editing it can be easy to lose focus.  rest of the group has to stay engaged – regardless of what shift duties you have

 Primarily directed toward the Leads: Be proactive with ensuring adequate staffing  Always better to have too many people, than not enough  Phone call load  Sudden equipment issues  Extra eyes on hydro  Seriously consider Public Information Officer position  Facebook, Twitter, NWSChat, EM Briefings  Can leverage use of the cubes  Brooke will have more  Severe Weather Operations  ESTF critical leading up to an event  During the event don’t lose the forest for the trees  Warnings always take precedence over routine  But DON’T over-use this as an excuse

ElementGoal (2012) BTV Tornado POD0.70 (0.72) 0.00 (1 events) Tornado FAR0.72 (0.70) 1.00 (5 warnings) Tornado LT12 min (13) -- Flash Flood POD0.72 (0.72) 0.75 (32 events) Flash Flood LT38 min (38) 57 min All Severe POD0.84 (0.85) 0.93 All Severe FAR0.39 (0.39) 0.33 All Severe LT17 min (18) 23.9 min

 Apply information learned today to your situational awareness AND warning decision making processes  Ensure your science-based forecasts & warnings are meet customer needs  Type of threat (what)  Locations expected to be impacted (where)  Timeframe of the threat (when)  Please, please keep ALL “Whys” to only Forecast Discussions

 Perform your own post-event assessments in order to learn from your actions  Don’t need to be formal  Put together case studies to share with the staff and public  Collective knowledge to help us all

We need to always Expect the Unexpected It may be just around the corner…..

Expect the Unexpected We need to always Expect the Unexpected It may be just around the corner…..

Expect the Unexpected We need to always Expect the Unexpected It may be just around the corner….. …or in the form of: An EF-2 Tornado at SUNY Plattsburgh 5” of rain in 90 minutes in South Hero Derecho over the 4 th of July weekend

Expect the Unexpected We need to always Expect the Unexpected It may be just around the corner….. …or in the form of: An EF-3 Tornado in Rutland 5” of rain in 90 minutes in South Hero Derecho over the 4 th of July weekend

Tuscaloosa Springfield MA A small part of some random large squall line