Montane Frogs in Rainforest 2013, Marcio et al., Understanding the mechanisms underlying the distribution of microendemic montane frogs (Brachycephalus.

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Montane Frogs in Rainforest 2013, Marcio et al., Understanding the mechanisms underlying the distribution of microendemic montane frogs (Brachycephalus spp., Terrarana: Brachycephalidae) in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest

Western Larch in NA 2006, MccCune, Non-parametric habitat models with automatic interactions

GAMNPMR

Two Approaches Occurrences “Greenhouse” experiments Occurrence/Presence Mechanistic Predictor Layers Model Map Correlate Generate Design Generate

Habitat Suitability Models Goal: find the suitable habitat for a species Also called “Species Distribution Models” Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) Tree Sparrow, Herts Bird Club Tamarisk, NIISS.org

Niche Temperature Salinity Population Growth Temperature Salinity From the Theory of Biogeography Brown, J.H., Lomolino, M.V. 1998, Biogeography: Second Edition. Sinauer Associates, Sinauer Massachusetts Environmental Space

Doug-Fir vs. Temperature

Douglas-Fir vs. Annual Mean Temp Green is the histogram of all the values in the sample area Red is the histogram of the values with Doug-Fir occurrences Both histograms are scaled to peak at 1

Doug-Fir vs. Precipitation

Douglas-Fir vs. Annual Precipitation

“Good” Model

“Poor” Model

Adapted from Richard Pearson, Center for Biodiversity and Conservation at the American Museum of Natural History Observed Occurrences Realized Niche/Distribution Fundamental Niche/Distribution Model Fitted to Occurrences Geographical Space Environmental Space

Early Approaches BioClim BioMapper Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP) Generalized Linear Models (GLM) Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) Kernel Methods Neural Networks

Latest Approaches Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) MaxEnt – piece-wise regression with Maximum Entropy optimization Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI 2), Bezier curves Non-Parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR)

Tree Methods Regression Trees Boosted Regression Trees Random Forests

Predicting Habitat Suitability Predicting potential species distributions at large spatial and temporal extents Given: –Limited data Most have unknown uncertainty Most biased/not randomly sampled >90% just “occurrences” or “observations” –Lots of species –Climate change and other scenarios

Methods Density, Abundance: –Continuous response –Linear Reg., GLM, GAMs, BRTs Presence/Absence: –logit/logistic –What does absence mean? Presence-Only (occurrences) –What to regress against?

Presence Only Need to have something to regress against Obtain background points or pseudo- absences –Sample a portion or all of the sample area –Regress the density of presences vs. the density of the sample area in the environmental space Regress density of presence against density of predictor values

Tree Sparrow Occurrences Graham, J., C. Jarnevich, N. Young, G. Newman, T. Stohlgren, How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows (Passer montanus)? Current Zoology, House Sparrows Eurasian Tree Sparrows

Modeling Process LatLonTempPrecip Occurrences Precipitation Temperature Modeling Algorithm VariableCoefficientP-Value Intercept Annual Precip Annual Temp Map Generation Model Parameters Environmental Layers Spreadsheets Habitat Suitability Map

Tree Sparrow Model Graham, J., C. Jarnevich, N. Young, G. Newman, T. Stohlgren, How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows (Passer montanus)? Current Zoology, 2011

Statistical Measures Cannot solve for Likelihood in AIC because there is no “equation” to solve (or the complexity is too high)

ROC Curve Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) See: –Wikipedia

Area Under the Curve (AUC) Area under an ROC curve Popular for HSM Encourages over-fitting

AUC Advantages –Provides comparable range: 0 – random 1 – perfect model –Easy to compute Disadvantages –Does not include number of parameters so encourages over fitting –Increasing the study area increases the AUC value

AIC Can now be computed for HSMs with ENMTools, Presence/Absence library for R, or BlueSpray Is this the “best” measure?

Uncertainty in Data Experts more accurate in correctly identifying species than volunteers 88% vs. 72% Volunteers: 28% false negative identifications and 1% false positive identifications Experts: 12% false negative identifications and <1% false positive identifications Conspicuous vs. Inconspicuous Volunteers correctly identified “easy” species 82% of the time vs. 65% for “difficult” species 62% of false ids for GB were CB

Spatial Modeling Concerns Over fitting the data –Are we modeling biological/ecological theory? What does the model look like? –In environmental space vs. geographic space Absence points? –What do they mean? Analysis and representation of uncertainty? Can we really model the potential distribution of a species from a sub-sample?

Tamarisk Data

Maraghni, M., M. Gorai, and M. Neffati Seed germination at different temperatures and water stress levels, and seedling emergence from different depths of Ziziphus lotus. South African Journal of Botany 76: Over-fitting The Data? What should the model look like? Maxent model for Tamarix in the US: response to temperature when modeled with temperature and precipitation

Maxent Model Parameters bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, 0.0, -27.0, bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS^2, , 0.0, bio12_annual_percip_CONUS*bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , , (681.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (760.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (764.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (663.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (654.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (789.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (415.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (811.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (69.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (433.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (933.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (87.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (41.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (177.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (91.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (1034.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (319.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (175.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (233.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (37.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (103.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (301.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (173.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (866.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (180.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (393.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (159.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (36.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (188.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (105.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (153.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (1001.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (74.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (109.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (105.0<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (25.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (60.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (231.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (58.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (49.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (845.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 'bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , 232.5, (320.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (121.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (643.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (232.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (77.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (130.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (981.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 `bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, 'bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , 216.5, `bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , -27.0, 16.5 (397.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 `bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, (174.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 'bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , 150.5, `bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, 'bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , 119.5, 'bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , 219.5, (90.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 `bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, `bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, `bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 52.0, 59.0 (385.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 (645.5<bio12_annual_percip_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 'bio12_annual_percip_CONUS, , 532.5, `bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , -27.0, `bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , -27.0, `bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , -27.0, 18.5 (13.5<bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS), , 0.0, 1.0 `bio1_annual_mean_temp_CONUS, , -27.0, 19.5 linearPredictorNormalizer, densityNormalizer, numBackgroundPoints, entropy, Parameters Maxent model from Tamarix model of western US using precipitation and temperature.

Document Caveats Assumptions –No errors in the data collection, handling, processing –No software defects –Occurrences represent viable populations in the wild –Density of occurrences correlates with potential habitat Uncertainties –Field data, environmental layers –256x256 grid used for 2d histograms

Some Caveats We are modeling “observations” A.Modeling occurrences with some uncertainty B.Modeling the realized niche if the data is a complete sample for the environmental space the species currently occupies C.Modeling the fundamental niche if B is true and the species is covering it’s full possible range of habitats Habitat Suitability Modeling Predicting the potential species distribution

Migration Animations Jim’s web site – Gray whale model – Barn swallows

Oregon Marine Planning Data Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) Review Materials: – om_content&view=article&id=480:stac- review-of-oregon-marine-planning- data&catid=15:stay-up-to-date-on-ocean- alternative-energy&Itemid=12http://oregonocean.info/index.php?option=c om_content&view=article&id=480:stac- review-of-oregon-marine-planning- data&catid=15:stay-up-to-date-on-ocean- alternative-energy&Itemid=12