CLIVAR SSG-18, Paris, 2-5 May 2011 Possible CliC – CLIVAR cooperation (based on CLIVAR Imperatives) Vladimir Ryabinin ( Senior Scientific Officer, Joint Planning Staff for WCRP) 1 of 17 Outline: 4 slides about CliC planning 9 slides on cryosphere-related predictability or related issues 1 slide: Possible areas of cooperation and existing resources 1 slide: Possible next steps

ØTo assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system. ØIn addressing this aim, CliC also seeks to determine the stability of the global cryosphere. ØCliC provides inputs and expertise to enable the prediction of the climate system with cryospheric parameters. CliC is co-sponsored by SCAR and IASC 2 of 17

Ice Masses and Sea Level (IMSL) - contribution of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets to sea level rise - how will ice shelves respond to changes in ocean and atmosphere The Marine Cryosphere and Climate (MarC) - impacts and feedbacks of a reduction in sea ice cover - nature of hemispheric differences between the two polar regions Terrestrial Cryosphere and Hydroclimatology of Cold Regions (TCHM) - role of terrestrial processes in water, energy, carbon cycles of cold regions - interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial and other elements of cryosphere/climate Global Predictions and the Cryosphere (GPC) - impacts of changes on ocean and atmosphere circulation - likelihood of abrupt climate changes Elements of CliC Implementation Plan as designed in 2003/2004, still useful 3 of 17

ØEnabling prediction of the Arctic climate system; ØEnabling prediction of the Antarctic climate system; ØEnabling prediction of terrestrial cryosphere; and ØEnabling improved assessment of the past, current and future sea-level variability and change. Agreed at CliC SSG-6 in Valdivia, of 17

Polar Climate Predictability (probably as part of a WCRP initiative based on the outcomes of the Bergen Workshop): –Focus on the explanation of causes and prediction of the sea-ice changes –Ice sheet dynamics and the role of the major ice sheets in sea-level rise –Regional Arctic climate modelling and improved parameterisation of cryospheric processes Cryospheric inputs to the Arctic and Southern Ocean freshwater budgets The role of carbon and permafrost in the climate system Sea-ice observations, modelling and data products Review of passive microwave sea-ice products and endorsements of a community sea-ice concentration and ice extent product Changes in mountain cryosphere and water resources, via regional activities –Asia – CliC –South America Current CliC Initiatives (as prioritized at CliC SSG-7, Tromsö, March 2011) 5 of 17

WCRP JSC April 2011 UKMO, Exeter Anthropogenic Climate Change Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Intra-to-Seasonal Variability, Predictability and Prediction CLIVAR Imperatives Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs Data Synthesis and Analysis Ocean Observing System Education and Capacity Development 6 of 17

CliC scientists have made a very strong contribution to the final SWIPA report, which will be presented to the Arctic Council in May 2011 and will serve as an Arctic contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC. 7 of 17

This Group integrates across all WCRP activities and collaborates with other Programmes and relevant parties as appropriate. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), one of WCRP’s three sponsors, has a strong interest in sea-level rise. In the IOC Biennial Strategy for 2008–2009 adopted at the 24 th IOC Assembly (June 2007), Member States asked that: “Periodical Policy Briefs on sea level be established and regularly updated”. Strong input by CLIVAR: Detlef Stammer et al.: Regional SL Workshop in Paris, 7-9 Feb of 17 Supported by WCRP/CliC

WCRP JSC April 2011 UKMO, Exeter Seasonal and CMIP5 hindcast simulations CLIVAR Regional Panels to Lead Application Interface for Seasonal Prediction Skill Assessment Sea-Ice HFP To explore seasonal predictability associated with sea ice Stratosphere-resolving HFP experiment (StratHFP) High and low top models will be used to quantify improvements in actual predictability by initializing and resolving the stratosphere in seasonal forecast systems Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2): To determine prediction skill associated with accurate initialization of land surface states Climate-system Historical Forecast Project Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System –Building links across core WCRP projects –Establishing links to WWRP TIGGE (1-90 day predictions) + snow 9 of 17

WCRP JSC April 2011 UKMO, Exeter Y. Orsolini 10 of 17

CLIVAR SSG-18, Paris, 2-5 May 2011 Seasonal Forecast from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (J. Cohen, 2011) Predictability: seasonal 11 of 17

CLIVAR SSG-18, Paris, 2-5 May 2011 Annual mean Arctic sea ice area anomalies and oceanic volume flux (upper 125 m) through Spitzbergen- Norway meridional (about 20E) cross-section (Bengtsson, 2004) Correlation between wintertime Arctic sea ice area and SATs Predictability: inter-annual Barents inflow Barents Sea Cyclonic circulation Westerly winds r = of 17

CLIVAR SSG-18, Paris, 2-5 May 2011 Predictability: decadal Decadal: forced change + natural variability (Ed Hawkins) (Boer & Lambert) 13 of 17

Issues: Stable Arctic PBL – source of large syst. errors in GCMs (new ArcMIP ???) Ocean heat transport into the Arctic Ocean from Atlantic (new AOMIP ???) 14 of 17

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Where CliC or cryospheric expertise can help CLIVAR and WCRP (foci): Seasonal Prediction: ice and snow Decadal: nexus of predictability in the North Atlantic including the role of sea-ice All fits well the WCRP Polar Predictability Initiative There is strong will to cooperate and significant expertise in IASC, SCAR, AOSB, Arctic Ocean observing initiatives, and more There are frameworks able to serve as a umbrella: GFCS, GIPPS, IPD Resources associated with CliC: CliC Arctic Sea-Ice Working Group (CASIWG, being strengthened with emphasis on modelling) people behind Arctic Sea Ice loss initiative (AOSB, Sea Ice Outlook of SEARCH, etc.) renewed SCAR/CliC ”Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate ” (ASPeCt, also involving more modelling expertise) cryospheric expertise in AOMIP, ArcMIP, participants in Bergen workshop 16 of 17

Possible next steps: A WCRP/IASC workshop on polar predictability initiative. J. Overland willing to host, boreal summer or early fall 2011 (USA?) - to move polar predictability initiative from considerations to planning (pan-WCRP work to subsume our previous considerations about the CliC / CLIVAR Arctic Panel) – endorsed by CiC SSG in Tromso Meeting of the CliC Arctic Sea-Ice Working Group Boulder (31 Oct-1 Nov 2011), immediately after the WCRP Open Science Conference – need to give the guidance to the group and continue its development ) – endorsed by CiC SSG in Tromso Arctic Ocean Data Synthesis for IPY – long-awaited progress (!): plans for workshop with AOSB (with support of Canada’s DFO), CLIVAR GSOP support and guidance would be key, cooperation with Atlantic Panel may be useful (Potsdam, Germany, October or November 2011) – need CLIVAR’s decision Keep building up modelling expertise on CliC SSG and consider a dedicated group for cryospheric modelling for climate prediction (Excellent cooperation and support from both IASC (now also AOSB), SCAR, and others make useful developments possible.) 17 of 17