Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang, Norm Possiel, Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart Air Quality Modeling Group.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Carey Jang, Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 Applications of CMAQ over the Pacific.

Advertisements

VISTAS Modeling Overview May 25, 2004 Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park.

Inventory Issues and Modeling- Some Examples Brian Timin USEPA/OAQPS October 21, 2002.

Photochemical Model Performance for PM2.5 Sulfate, Nitrate, Ammonium, and pre-cursor species SO2, HNO3, and NH3 at Background Monitor Locations in the.

Ozone Modeling over the Western U.S. -- Impact of National Controls on Ozone Trends in the Future Rural/Urban Ozone in the Western United States -- March.

Incorporation of the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization and Dissolution (MADRID) into CMAQ Yang Zhang, Betty K. Pun, Krish Vijayaraghavan,

CMAQ and REMSAD- Model Performance and Ongoing Improvements Brian Timin, Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Tom Braverman USEPA/OAQPS December 3, 2002.

Christian Seigneur AER San Ramon, CA

Multi-Scale Applications of U.S. EPA’s Third-Generation Air Quality Modeling System (Models-3/CMAQ) Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Brian Timin,

Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006.

CENRAP Modeling Workgroup Mational RPO Modeling Meeting May 25-26, Denver CO Calvin Ku Missouri DNR May 25, 2004.

The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan,

The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan,

CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) pollutant Concentration change horizontal advection vertical advection horizontal dispersion vertical diffusion.

The Sensitivity of Aerosol Sulfate to Changes in Nitrogen Oxides and Volatile Organic Compounds Ariel F. Stein Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania.

Model Inter-comparison to Evaluate Gaseous Pollutants in East Asia Using an Advanced Modeling System: Models-3/CMAQ System 2007 CMAS Conference Chapel.

Applications and Evaluation of USEPA’s Models-3/CMAQ System: From Regional and Urban Air Pollution to Global Climate Change Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm.

Regional Haze Modeling RPO Update Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM National RPO Meeting, Dallas, TX December 3, 2002.

University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center WRAP Regional Haze CMAQ 1996 Model Performance and for Section.

National/Regional Air Quality Modeling Assessment Over China and Taiwan Using Models-3/CMAQ Modeling System Joshua S. Fu 1, Carey Jang 2, David Streets.

Modeling Studies of Air Quality in the Four Corners Region National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Cooperative Institute for Research in.

O UTLINE Why are we interested in linking GEOS- CHEM with regional air quality model (CMAQ)? Technical issues to consider when linking GEOS-CHEM & CMAQ.

Impact of Emissions on Intercontinental Long-Range Transport Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam and Yang Gao, University of Tennessee, USA Rokjin Park, Seoul National.

Center for Environmental Research and Technology University of California, Riverside Bourns College of Engineering Evaluation and Intercomparison of N.

WRAP Update. Projects Updated 1996 emissions QA procedures New evaluation tools Model updates CB-IV km MM5 Fugitive dust NH 3 emissions Model.

Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System CMAQ Air Quality Data Summit February 2008.

Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008 Review of Ozone Performance in WRAP Modeling and Relevance to Future Regional Ozone Planning Gail Tonnesen, Zion.

A comparison of PM 2.5 simulations over the Eastern United States using CB-IV and RADM2 chemical mechanisms Michael Ku, Kevin Civerolo, and Gopal Sistla.

Modeling of Ammonia and PM 2.5 Concentrations Associated with Emissions from Agriculture Megan Gore, D.Q. Tong, V.P. Aneja, and M. Houyoux Department of.

WRAP Experience: Investigation of Model Biases Uma Shankar, Rohit Mathur and Francis Binkowski MCNC–Environmental Modeling Center Research Triangle Park,

VISTAS Emissions Inventory Overview Nov 4, VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US View NE from.

GEM/AQ Simulations on Intercontinental Transports Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada.

PM Model Performance & Grid Resolution Kirk Baker Midwest Regional Planning Organization November 2003.

Operational Evaluation and Comparison of CMAQ and REMSAD- An Annual Simulation Brian Timin, Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Tom Braverman USEPA/OAQPS.

Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003 Research Triangle Park, NC Computational Chemodynamics Laboratory EOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division Evaluating.

Role of Air Quality Modeling in the RIA Norm Possiel & Pat Dolwick Air Quality Modeling Group EPA/OAQPS.

Source Attribution Modeling to Identify Sources of Regional Haze in Western U.S. Class I Areas Gail Tonnesen, EPA Region 8 Pat Brewer, National Park Service.

Evaluation of the VISTAS 2002 CMAQ/CAMx Annual Simulations T. W. Tesche & Dennis McNally -- Alpine Geophysics, LLC Ralph Morris -- ENVIRON Gail Tonnesen.

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

Applications of Models-3 in Coastal Areas of Canada M. Lepage, J.W. Boulton, X. Qiu and M. Gauthier RWDI AIR Inc. C. di Cenzo Environment Canada, P&YR.

An Exploration of Model Concentration Differences Between CMAQ and CAMx Brian Timin, Karen Wesson, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Sharon Phillips EPA/OAQPS.

GEOS-CHEM Modeling for Boundary Conditions and Natural Background James W. Boylan Georgia Department of Natural Resources - VISTAS National RPO Modeling.

Evaluation of Models-3 CMAQ I. Results from the 2003 Release II. Plans for the 2004 Release Model Evaluation Team Members Prakash Bhave, Robin Dennis,

Diagnostic Study on Fine Particulate Matter Predictions of CMAQ in the Southeastern U.S. Ping Liu and Yang Zhang North Carolina State University, Raleigh,

THE MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTI- SCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODEL: 2002 RELEASE – NEW FEATURES Jonathan Pleim, Francis Binkowski, Robin Dennis, Brian Eder,

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF MADRID: A NEW AEROSOL MODULE IN MODELS-3/CMAQ Yang Zhang*, Betty Pun, Krish Vijayaraghavan, Shiang-Yuh Wu and Christian.

Extending Size-Dependent Composition to the Modal Approach: A Case Study with Sea Salt Aerosol Uma Shankar and Rohit Mathur The University of North Carolina.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Office of Research and Development.

Evaluation of 2002 Multi-pollutant Platform: Air Toxics, Mercury, Ozone, and Particulate Matter US EPA / OAQPS / AQAD / AQMG Sharon Phillips, Kai Wang,

Applications of Models-3/CMAQ:

Georgia Institute of Technology SUPPORTING INTEX THROUGH INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND SUB-ORBITAL MEASUREMENTS WITH GLOBAL AND REGIONAL 3-D MODELS:

AoH/MF Meeting, San Diego, CA, Jan 25, 2006 WRAP 2002 Visibility Modeling: Summary of 2005 Modeling Results Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary, Chao-Jung.

VISTAS Modeling Overview Oct. 29, 2003

Evaluation of CAMx: Issues Related to Sectional Models Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Steve Lau and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation Novato,

Emission reductions needed to meet proposed ozone standard and their effect on particulate matter Daniel Cohan and Beata Czader Department of Civil and.

Response of fine particles to the reduction of precursor emissions in Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China Juan Li 1, Joshua S. Fu 1, Yang Gao 1, Yun-Fat Lam.

MRPO Technical Approach “Nearer” Term Overview For: Emissions Modeling Meteorological Modeling Photochemical Modeling & Domain Model Performance Evaluation.

Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW) Model Performance Evaluation CAMx and CMAQ 2011b University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)

Sensitivity of PM 2.5 Species to Emissions in the Southeast Sun-Kyoung Park and Armistead G. Russell Georgia Institute of Technology Sensitivity of PM.

BACKGROUND AEROSOL IN THE UNITED STATES: NATURAL SOURCES AND TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION Daniel J. Jacob and Rokjin J. Park with support from EPRI, EPA/OAQPS.

Development of a Multipollutant Version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Shawn Roselle, Deborah Luecken, William Hutzell,

Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast

Development of a 2007-Based Air Quality Modeling Platform

Stephen Mueller & Jonathan Mallard Tennessee Valley Authority

Deborah Luecken and Golam Sarwar U.S. EPA, ORD/NERL

Steve Griffiths, Rob Lennard and Paul Sutton* (*RWE npower)

Update on 2016 AQ Modeling by EPA

WRAP Modeling Forum, San Diego

Guidance on Attainment Tests for O3 / PM / Regional Haze

Current Research on 3-D Air Quality Modeling: wildfire!

Presentation transcript:

Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang, Norm Possiel, Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS/EMAD Research Triangle Park, North Carolina M3 User Workshop, 10/21/2002

OUTLINE b b Applications and evaluations of Models-3/CMAQ at USEPA/OAQPS b b Issues related to annual modeling of ozone and PM b b Preliminary comparison results between CMAQ-2002 and releases b b On-going and upcoming activities

Models-3/CMAQ Applications and Evaluations at EPA/OAQPS b Western U.S. Application Episodic O 3, July 96, 36/12 km, evaluation, (AWMA 2001) b Annual Continental U.S. Application 1-atmosphere, annual 1996, 36-km, evaluation & diagnostics, on-going for 2001, (AWMA 2001 & 2002) b Eastern U.S. Application 1-atmosphere, July 95, urban applications, 36/12/4-km, emissions control & growth (on-going) b Intercontinental Transport modeling Trans-Oceanic transport of air pollutants and nested U.S. & Asia/China modeling for year 2001

12 km western US ozone domain 36 km western US ozone domain 36 km eastern US domain Models-3/CMAQ Modeling: Domain Maps 36 km Annual National US domain 12 km domain 4 km domain

Annual Continental U.S. Application b Features : Annual CMAQ modeling over the continental U.S., “One-Atmosphere” b Model Setup : Annual PM and O 3 (1996) 36-km, 8/12 vertical layers Meteorology : MM5 Emissions Processing: SMOKE Model Evaluation: Compared against observed data (IMPROVE & CASTNET) & REMSAD Papers published in AWMA (2001 & 2002)

July 1, 1996 NOx EmissionsSO 2 Emissions

Run Time & Disk Space Requirement for Annual CMAQ Simulation b CMAQ annual run time was ~14 days 4 CPUs (400 MHz) Sun Workstations (Enterprise 450); Running 4 quarters of the year concurrently4 CPUs (400 MHz) Sun Workstations (Enterprise 450); Running 4 quarters of the year concurrently ~4 hours/model day (8 layers)~4 hours/model day (8 layers) b Model-Ready Inputs/Outputs (entire year) Emission (SMOKE/ECIP) : 40 GBEmission (SMOKE/ECIP) : 40 GB Meteorology (MM5/MCIP) : 100 GBMeteorology (MM5/MCIP) : 100 GB Outputs (M3/CMAQ) : 250 GB, compressed to 9 GBOutputs (M3/CMAQ) : 250 GB, compressed to 9 GB b The model runs >4 times faster on new Linux PCs 1.6GHz AMD Athlon MP (single CPU)1.6GHz AMD Athlon MP (single CPU) b Current modeling are transitioned to Linux PCs (parallel processing on the PC/Linux cluster is being investigated)

Annual Continental U.S. CMAQ Modeling: O 3 (July Max in ppb, 1996)

Annual CMAQ Modeling: Visibility (January Average in Deciview)

Annual CMAQ Modeling: Wet Deposition Sulfur Wet Deposition Nitrogen Wet Deposition (January average)

Models-3/CMAQ Simulation: Annual Average PM 2.5Sulfate PM Organic PM Nitrate PM

Observation (IMPROVE) Model Annual Average: Total PM 2.5 mass

Observation Model NO 3 SO 4 OC Annual Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO 4, NO 3, OC)

Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (July) PM 2.5 Sulfate PM Organic PM Nitrate PM

Observation Model NO 3 SO 4 OC Summer Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)

Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (January) PM 2.5 Sulfate PM Organic PM Nitrate PM

Winter Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC) Observation Model NO 3 SO 4 OC

Annual CMAQ Modeling: CB4 vs. RADM2 Nitrate PM (January avg, 1996)

Annual CMAQ Modeling: CB4 vs. RADM2 Sulfate PM (July avg, 1996)

NH 3 Sensitivity Modeling Base 50% NH 3 reduction Nitrate PM : (January Avg, 1996)

On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG b Continue model evaluation and sensitivity test for the annual 1996 continental US run Examine nitrate and organic PM issues – –Emissions issues (NH 3, BEIS3, Fire, CA emis. etc.) – –Vertical layer sensitivity (8-14 layers) – –Nitrate nighttime chemistry issue – –“N2O5 + H2O --> 2HNO3” and “NO2 + OH --> HNO3” – –Dry deposition Issue – –Vertical diffusion sensitivity

b Modeling support for regulatory analysis ! ! Clear Skies Initiative (on-going) ! ! PM Transport Rule (2002/03) ! ! Nonroad Rule (2002/03) ! ! Section 812 CAAA Prospective Update (2003) ! ! 8-Hour Ozone Implementation Guidance (2002/03) ! ! PM NAAQS Review (2003) ! ! Regional Haze Rule (on-going) On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)

b Improvement of base model simulation Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12 layers) Monthly NH 3 emissions adjustments from animal husbandry & fertilizer operations (based on ORD inverse modeling) BEIS-3/BELD-3 NOx emissions from new Nonroad model California NOx & VOC emission adjustments Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July 2002) On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)

National 1996 CMAQ Modeling: Peak Ozone (July 1996) 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Old Base vs. New Base

Sulfate PM (Monthly average, July 1996) 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Annual CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base

Nitrate PM (Monthly average, January 1996) 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Annual CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base

Anthropogenic SOA Biogenic SOA (BEIS2 vs. BEIS3) 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Organic PM (July 1996) Annual CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base

CMAQ Seasonal Ozone (8-hr max) Evaluation Spring Fall Summer Winter Observation Model

CMAQ Seasonal Sulfate PM Evaluation Spring Fall Summer Winter Observation Model

CMAQ Seasonal Organic PM Evaluation Spring Fall Summer Winter Observation Model

CMAQ Seasonal Nitrate PM Evaluation Spring Fall Summer Winter Observation Model

CMAQ Seasonal Total NO 3 (HNO3 + Nitrate PM) Evaluation Spring Fall Summer Winter Observation Model

CMAQ vs. IMPROVE Model performance : Annual average

CB-IV SAPRC-99 CB-IV SAPRC-99 (January Average) Nitrate Nighttime Chemistry Sensitivity “N2O5  HNO3” rxn rate (sensitivity test)

Base Kv (min) = 5 Base Kv (min) = 5 Kv(min) = 1, Stable up to 3 rd layer, ~230 m Kv(min) = 1, Stable up to 3 rd layer, ~230 m (January Average) Kv (vertical diffusion) Sensitivity

(January 19, 2002) NH 3 Dry Deposition Issue in CMAQ NH 3 Dry Dep. (V d ) Air Temp. NH 3 Dry Dep. (V d ) Air Temp.

b Improvement of base model simulation Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12 layers) Monthly NH 3 emissions adjustments from animal husbandry & fertilizer operations (based on ORD inverse modeling) BEIS-3/BELD-3 NOx emissions from new Nonroad model California NOx & VOC emission adjustments Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July 2002) – –Computer time issue (runtime doubled) – –Nitrate PM overprediction issue – –Organic PM/Biogenic SOA issue On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)

(January avg.) Difference (CMAQ/2002 – CMAQ/2001)  PM 2.5  PM 2.5  Nitrate PM

(January avg.) Nitrate PM CMAQ-2001 (AE2) CMAQ-2002 (AE3) CMAQ-2001 (AE2) CMAQ-2002 (AE3)

(July avg.) Difference (CMAQ/2002 – CMAQ/2001)  PM 2.5  PM 2.5  Biogenic SOA

CMAQ (AE3) CMAQ (AE2) Anthropogenic SOA Biogenic SOA (July avg.) 2 ug/m3 6 ug/m3

b Annual National CMAQ run for year MM5 & NEI emissions thru SMOKE Model evaluation against expanded PM speciation network (TREND, IMPROVE, etc.) b “Intercontinental Transport of Climatic Effect of Air Pollutants” (ICAP) Project Modeling of trans-oceanic pollutant transport Nested modeling over East Asia/China Region Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG

“Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP)” : USEPA Modeling Initiative NASA/MOPPIT: CO Transport

Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP)

Air Quality Modeling over China : Ozone

PM 2.5Sulfate PM Organic PM Nitrate PM Air Quality Modeling over China : PM

Visibility (Deciview) Sulfate Wet Deposition Air Quality Modeling over China

b b PM 2.5 modeling more complex than O 3 modeling Multi-species vs. single species SO 2, NOx, VOC, or NH 3 -limited vs. VOC or NOx-limted Annual vs. summer pollutants Day + nighttime chemistry vs. daytime chemistry “Gas + aqueous + aerosol” chemistry vs. gas chemistry Organic PM modeling is still a research issue Emission (e.g. NH 3, fire, Biogenic ) & monitoring issues (e.g., OC/EC, nitrate) and provide further modeling challenge b b O 3 and PM are highly linked, “one-atmosphere” modeling is necessary Take Home Message

Nitrate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease) -- (decrease) -- (decrease) -- (decrease) (July Average, 1996) 50% NOx reduction

Formation of Secondary PM (PM 2.5 ): Sulfate PM formation: H 2 SO NH 3 ---> (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 (s) Gas Phase: O 2,H 2 O SO 2 + OH ---> H 2 SO 4 Aqueous Phase: H 2 O S(IV) + H 2 O 2 ---> H 2 SO 4 (Dominate over low pH) S(IV) + O 3 ---> H 2 SO 4 Nitrate PM formation: HNO 3 + NH 3 NH 4 NO 3 (aq,s) Gas Phase : (daytime) NO 2 + OH ---> HNO 3 Gas &Aq Phase : (nighttime) N 2 O 5 + H 2 O ---> HNO 3 Organic PM formation: (Gas-Particle conversion) VOC + OH ---> SOA O 3, NO 3 (semi-volatile) (Long-chain VOC, Aromatics, Biogenic VOC)

Ozone Sulfate PM Ozone Sulfate PM -- (decrease) -- (decrease) -- (decrease) -- (decrease) (July Average, 1996) 50% NOx reduction

Ozone Organic PM Ozone Organic PM -- (decrease) -- (decrease) -- (decrease) -- (decrease) (July Average, 1996) 50% NOx reduction

Nitrate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease) + (increase) -- (decrease) + (increase) (January Average) 50% NOx reduction

Ozone Sulfate PM Ozone Sulfate PM + (increase) + (increase) + (increase) + (increase) (January Average) 50% NOx reduction

Air Toxics Ozone Acid Rain Visibility PM 2.5 WaterQuality. OH. OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : One-Atmosphere NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O 3 SOx [or NOx] + NH 3 + OH ---> (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 [or NH 4 NO 3 ] SO 2 + OH ---> H 2 SO 4 NO 2 + OH ---> HNO 3 VOC + OH ---> Orgainic PM OH Air Toxics (POM, PAH, Hg (II), etc.) Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM) NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification, Eutrophication)