NAS-WIDE Simulation Workshop December 10, 2008 Interagency Portfolio & Systems Analysis Division Yuri Gawdiak

Systems Modeling & Analysis Division 10/23/ JPDO External Requirements Drivers from OMB 1.Improving NextGen cost and benefit estimation ability, including the ability to quantify the benefits and performance of various levels of investment. The JPDO should work with the NextGen agencies to develop a more systematic, independently-verified methodology for validating the cost of NextGen investments. 2.Developing an analysis of alternatives for the NextGen Exh. 300 that captures benefit-cost ratios and returns on investment, to be submitted in time for agencies’ FY 2010 budget request to OMB in September The NextGen Exh. 300 also needs to have a designated, qualified project manager.

Systems Modeling & Analysis Division 10/23/ Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Matrix Stakeholders Goals:Global leadershipCapacitySafetyEnvironment / Noise Environment / Fuel Consumption DefenseSecurity Top-level metrics summary descriptors: Percent of JPDO milestones on track Total ATS-related costs per flight Percent on-time arrivals with traffic volume to meet predicted demand Curb-to-curb travel time Percent of improvements evaluated for safety Number of people exposed to >65 dB DNL Fleet fuel consumed per distance flown Reduction in flight time arising from flexible use of SUA Time passengers spend dedicated to security Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Air Traffic Service Provider Cost per unit of serviceOn-time performanceReduced accident risk Reduced SUA-related delays for DoD and civil users Airspace UsersEquipage costs Global inter-operability (metric TBD) Number of flights On-time performance Reduced accident risk Reduced fuel costsReduction in flight time and delay from flexible use of airspace AirportsNumber of passengers Throughout capacity Reduced accident risk Environmental remediation costs Time passengers spend in security Fliers & ShippersCost of delayOn-time performance Passenger total trip time Reduced accident risk Reduced fuel costsTime passengers spend in security DoDGlobal interoperability (metric TBD) Reduced accident risk Reduced costs related to use of SUA Communities Near Airports Number of flights Number of passengers Reduced accident risk Population exposed to >65 dB DNL Reduced local pollutant levels

Internal NextGen Requirements Capabilities Cost/Benefit Mapping Provide Collaborative Capacity Management The ability to dynamically balance forecasted airspace and airport demand and utilization in collaboration with enterprise stakeholders through proactive strategic planning and automation (e.g. decision support systems), using airspace and airport design requirements, standards and configuration conditions, and with consideration of other air transportation system resources. Provide Collaborative Flow Contingency Management The ability to provide optimal, synchronized, and safe strategic flow initiatives and minimized operational impacts in collaboration with enterprise stakeholders, through real or near real time resolutions informed by probabilistic decision making that address large demand/capacity imbalances within capacity management plans. Provide Effective Information Sharing Environment The ability to improve information required by aviation regulation, situational awareness and enhance decision making by managing, integrating, and flexibly delivering, relevant and reliable data and information (e.g., advisories, signals, and alerts) on demand in a format that is accessible, secure, and available to authorized users in a unified and coordinated environment. Provide Efficient Trajectory Management The ability to provide trajectories that minimize the frequency and complexity of aircraft conflicts within the flow through trajectory negotiation and adjusting individual aircraft trajectory and/or sequence when resource contention requires. Provide Flexible Airport Facility & Surface Operations The ability to reallocate or reconfigure the airport facility and surface assets to maintain an acceptable level of service that will accommodate increasing passenger and cargo demand levels, or changes in operational requirements, through infrastructure development, predictive analyses, automation (e.g. decision support systems), and improvements to technology and procedures. Provide Integrated Regulatory & Risk Management The ability to provide appropriate, effective and scalable solutions to mitigate environmental impacts, and safety and security risks in the air transportation system based on proactive risk identification and analysis through improved automation, policies, procedures, and processes using established standards, requirements, and responsibilities. Provide Flexible Separation Management The ability to establish and maintain safe separation minima from other aircraft, vehicles, protected airspace, terrain, weather, etc., predict conflicts, and identify resolutions (e.g., course, speed, altitude, etc.) in real time to accommodate increasing capacity demands and traffic levels using automation (e.g. decision support systems) while applying reduced separation standards. Strategic Global Collaboration & Planning Tactical, National,Virtual Real-Time Collaboration & Planning Infrastructure Standards, Communication Capabilities, & Cross Cutting Services Infrastructure Standards, Safety & Risk Management Capabilities, & Cross Cutting Services Real-time Robotic automation & Safety Assurance

Systems Modeling & Analysis Division 10/23/ System Modeling Challenges Productivity/Inefficiencies Safety/Security Risk Exposure Collaboration Behaviors Market/Fleet Strategies Complex Terminal & Surface Operations Policy Dynamics System-wide Technology Effects (Situational Awareness/Data Quality)

Systems Modeling & Analysis Division 10/23/ Future Scenario Challenges Billions of Runs Millions of Runs Thousands of Runs Hundreds of Runs JPDO Full Lifecycle Evaluations out to 2040

Systems Modeling & Analysis Division 10/23/ Summary 1.Ability to isolate benefits of individual capabilities include system- wide infrastructure type benefits 2.Identify to current system opportunity costs - missed or short falls in collaborations in the NAS 3.Identification of current productivity levels across all components in the system 4.Ability to incorporate and measure safety and security benefits and constraints 5.Ability to incorporate surface, terminal, and metroplex operations into the NAS-wide simulations 6.Ability to incorporate AOC and Airport business objectives at both the strategic and tactical levels 7.Assess policy and strategic decision risks of the community to fund, develop, and implement the NextGen R&D and programs 8.Ability to run sufficient number of simulations to evaluate a portfolio of investment options