Ron Wyzga, SC. D., FASA Senior Technical Executive AWMA Annual Meeting June 25, 2014 Commentary on the Critical Review Public Health and Components of.

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Presentation transcript:

Ron Wyzga, SC. D., FASA Senior Technical Executive AWMA Annual Meeting June 25, 2014 Commentary on the Critical Review Public Health and Components of Particulate Matter: The Changing Assessment of Black Carbon

2 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Critical Review Good compendium of literature Rightfully points to role for BC Needs to go beyond BC –other components –surrogacy –BC, OC as mixtures

3 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Rohr – Wyzga Paper Reviewed literature through February 2012 Epidemiology, toxicological, human clinical studies Acute studies only (exposures ≤ 1 week) No judgments about study methods, analyses Studies had to consider at last 2 components and PM 2.5 Quantitative results were presented Considered the most significant positive result

4 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Results – Epidemiological Studies Overall 39 studies considered PM 2.5 and at least 2 components CVD response 21/39 significant association and at least with PM or component 2/39 significant association with PM, but not component 17/39 significant association with components, but not PM Carbon-containing components gave more significant associations than PM /28 studies considering carbon-containing particles found significant associations 9/35 studies considering sulfates found significant associations

5 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Results Epidemiological Studies II Respiratory responses 15/26 studies for carbon-containing particles 12/27 studies for sulfates Asthma 7/20 studies for carbon Not much consideration of metals in epi studies –Ni, V, Cu, Si, K found greatest effects

6 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Limitations/Caveats Considered any significant positive results Methodologies not evaluated No consideration of measurement error Multiple comparison issue Surrogacy issue Two pollutant models not addressed

7 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Ito et al Results 150 Cities (components) 64 Cities (components) Year Warm Season Cold Season Year Warm Season Cold Season PM2.5xxxx-x Sulfate-----x OCxxxx-x ECx-xx-x Nitratex---x- x = statistically significant 150 Cities (components) 64 Cities (components) Year Warm Season Cold Season Year Warm Season Cold Season x-xxxx ---xx- xxxxx- x-xx-x CVD Hospitalizations Respiratory Hospitalizations

8 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Overall Conclusion No major component is exonerated More evidence for carbon-containing particles –Definition needs to be clarified –Need to go beyond EC Some concern for metals, especially Ni, V with cardiovascular and respiratory; Al, Si with respiratory endpoints

9 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Health Analyses of Thermal Desorption Data Atlanta & Birmingham ( ), Dallas (2006 – 2007) Health Data: –Medicare enrollees (>64 yr) –Total emergency CVD and respiratory related hospital admissions Air Pollution Data: –PM 2.5 condensed-phase primary OC species (TD-GCMS) grouped by their chemical structure At least 75% non-missing observations At least 50% above the LOD IQR/median > 0.3 All criteria satisfied in all 3 cities

10 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Thermal Desorption Data: Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas Combined Total CVD

11 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Conclusions EC, OC are mixtures Some components may be more important in predicting health effects than others Need more detailed measurements to unravel air pollution – health issue

12 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Possibilities for EC EC bad actor EC, others bad actors EC + other bad actors EC a surrogate