11-2 Experimental Probability Course 2 Warm Up Warm Up Problem of the Day Problem of the Day Lesson Presentation Lesson Presentation

Warm Up 1. A jar contains 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble? Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain. 2. Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%. Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting? blue certain Course Experimental Probability

Problem of the Day The probability of Liana making a free throw was If she made 24 of her free throws, how many did she miss? Course Experimental Probability

Learn to find experimental probability. Course Experimental Probability

Vocabulary experimental probability Insert Lesson Title Here Course Experimental Probability

Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. The experimental probability of the event is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be. Course Experimental Probability

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY probability  number of times an event occurs total number of trials Course Experimental Probability

During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump? Additional Example 1: Sports Application P(event)  number of times an event occurs total number of trials Substitute data from the experiment = The experimental probability that Sasha will land her next jump is Course Experimental Probability number of jumps landed number of jumps attempted P(jumps landed) 

“P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).” Writing Math Course Experimental Probability

Check It Out: Example 1 Insert Lesson Title Here During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt? P(event)  number of times an event occurs total number of trials The experimental probability that Martha will make the next free throw is or 90% Substitute data from the experiment and write as a percent = = 90% P(free throws made)  number of free throws made number of free throws attempted Course Experimental Probability

Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction. Additional Example 2A: Application What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction? P(fiction)  number of fiction books checked out total number of books checked out  The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately Substitute data. Course Experimental Probability

What is the experimental probability that Additional Example 2B: Application the next book checked out will be nonfiction? P(nonfiction)  number of nonfiction books checked out total number of books checked out  The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction is approximately Substitute data. Course Experimental Probability

Check It Out: Example 2A Insert Lesson Title Here Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears. What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear?  The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately Substitute data. P(pear)  number of pears selected total number of fruit selected Course Experimental Probability

Check It Out: Example 2B Insert Lesson Title Here What is the experimental probability that next fruit selected will be an apple?  The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is approximately Substitute data. P(apple)  number of apples selected total number of fruit selected Course Experimental Probability

Lesson Quiz 1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that he will make the next shot? 2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton. A. What is the experimental probability that it will rain this year on July 4? B. What is the experimental probability that it will not rain this year? Insert Lesson Title Here 4545 Course Experimental Probability