AFTER IRENE: JOSE, KATIA, LEE, MARIA, NATE, OPHELIA, PHILIPPE-- - FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 2011 SEASON? AUGUST 28 - NOVEMBER 30, 2011 Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

2011 FORECAST

LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SHIFTED AS THE SEASON PROGRESSED EARLY SEASON: Western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean [with USA impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.] MID-TO-LATE SEASON: The eastern Gulf and Caribbean [with USA and Canadian impacts from the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas, New England, and the Maratimes.]

IRENE: 2011’s NINTH STORM A “BIG” and DISASTROUS STORM 1, km ( mi) Wide First Hurricane ( 950 mb) $Tens of Billions in damage

AUGUST 21: TROPICAL STORM IRENE OVER PUERTO RICO BEFORE BECOMING HURRICANE

FRIDAY MORNING, AUG 26: EYE OF STORM EAST OF FLORIDA

IRENE’S LANDFALL RAIN MAP

AUG 26: PRE-LANDFALL FORECAST

AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC

AUG 28: FORECAST OF IRENE’S PATH

AUG 28: FORECAST OF IRENE’S WINDS

IRENE CONTRIBUTED TO RAINFALL ON EAST COAST: AUG 16-30

Loss estimates (still being tallied ) indicate that Irene will almost certainly rank among the nation's costliest natural disasters.

Irene was blamed for at least 45 deaths in the continental U.S., plus one in Puerto Rico and seven more in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Irene caused power failures to 6.69 million homes and businesses.

Experts warned that the flooding that followed Irene could cause a surge of mold, which can, mean coughing (e.g., “Katrina cough”), sneezing and wheezing for those with allergies

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency has registered more than 48,000 Hurricane Irene disaster survivors for individual assistance as of Sept 5 th.

2011’s TENTH STORM TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED LATE SUNDAY (AUGUST 28 th NEAR BERMUDA

AUGUST 28: VIEW OF ATLANTIC BASIN FROM SPACE

AUG 28: TROPICAL STORM JOSE DRENCHES BERMUDA BEFORE DYING

2011’s ELEVENTH STORM TROPICAL STORM KATIA FORMED ON AUGUST 30 th AND DEVELOPED INTO SECOND HURRICANE OF SEASON ON AUG 31

AUG 31: KATIA BECAME A CAT 3 HURRICANE

THE QUESTION In view of what Hurricane Irene did to the Eastern USA an Atlantic Canada, will Katia make landfall in the USA? Where?

SEPTEMBER 1: KATIA BECAME A CAT 3 HURRICANE

SEPTEMBER 2: KATIA, ON LINE BETWEEN DAY AND NIGHT IN SOUTHERN ATLANTIC

SEPTEMBER 2 Forecast models on Sept 2 indicated that Katia will likely be 1666 km (1,000 mi) east of Miami by Tuesday, the day after Labor Day, with a possible track towards Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

SEPT 3: KATIA LIKELY TO MISS EAST COAST

SEPT 4: STATUS OF KATIA Hurricane Katia could reach Category 3 status, with winds of 185 kph ( 111 mph) or more, by Monday afternoon (Sept 5), but with uncertainty about whether it will make landfall in the United States.

KATIA ON SEPT 5

SEPT 5: FORECAST FOR KATIA (A CAT 3 HURRICANE)

SEPT 7: KATIA (A CAT 1 HURRICANE) SW OF BERMUDA

SEPTEMBER 7: Wind and rain from Katia could still affect USA’s East Coast as it moves northward and its remnant eventually affects Ireland and the UK.

SEPTEMBER 8: Hurricane Katia continued to move north between Bermuda and North Carolina and did not threaten land.

2011’s TWELFTH STORM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 SOON TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM LEE FORMING IN GULF OF MEXICO ON SEPTEMBER 2

SEPTEMBER 2: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 BECAME TROPICAL STORM LEE

SEPTEMBER 2: FLORIDA BEING SANDWICHED BY LEE AND KATIA

SEPT 2: Lee is about 295 km (185mi) miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, heading north at 3 kph (2 mph); the slow pace means that it could be a SUPER SOAKER rainmaker BEFORE AND AFTER landfall on Sept 3.

SEPT 2: Almost half the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and a third of natural gas output in Lee’s path were shut down.

SEPT 2: Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency in several counties expected to be hit with heavy rain of cm (10-20 in) as Lee nears.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared states of emergency in ten Louisiana parishes, and officials urged voluntary evacuations in parts of Lafourche Parish and Grand Isle.

SEPTEMBER 3: FORECAST FOR LEE

SEPT 3:LANDFALL FOR LEE The storm is expected to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast late Saturday and turn east toward New Orleans, where it will provide the biggest test of rebuilt levees since Hurricane Gustav struck on Labor Day 2008.

SEPT 3: LEE: A SUPER SOAKER IN POINT AUX CHENES, LA

SEPT 3: LEE: A SUPER SOAKER IN MANDAVILLE, LA

SEPT 3: LEE: MANDAVILLE, LA

SEPT 3: LEE: RAIN LADEN CLOUDS IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: WATER RISING IN LONDON AVE CANAL

SEPT 3: LEE: LONDON AVE CANAL IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: FLOODING NEAR LONDON AVE CANAL IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: A SUPER SOAKER IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: POT HOLE IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: WIND DAMAGE IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: DOWNED TREE IN NEW ORLEANS

The prospect of flooding in low-lying New Orleans evoked 2005’s memories of Hurricane Katrina, which flooded 80 percent of the city, killed 1,500 people, and caused more than $80 billion in damage.

SEPT 4: At 8 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center said Lee's center had come ashore on the Louisiana coast about 80 km (50 mi) west of Lafayette, LA with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph (45 mph) headed north at 5 kph (3 mph)

As Lee weakens in the coming days, the system is expected to unleash heavy rains over a wide area of the central Gulf Coast and the Tennessee Valley as it moves northeastward.

LEE (SOURCE: NASA’S AQUA SATELLITE)

SEPT 4: NEW ORLEANS escaped without a Katrina- type, breached-levee, flooding disaster and no deaths, but the city had some local flooding and tens of thousands were without power.

SEPT 4: Since Thursday (Sept 1), parts of New Orleans had as much as 37 cm (15 in) of rain; 40 cm (16 in) in nearby Gretna, and over 27 cm (11 in) in parts of St. Bernard and Jefferson parishes.

SEPT 4: OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION RESUMED Exxon Mobile and Royal Dutch Shell returned workers to some oil and natural gas platforms as Tropical Storm Lee moved out of the Gulf of Mexico, drenching LA, MS, and AL as it accelerated to the east-northeast.

SEPT 5: FLOODING IN BIRMINGHAM, AL

SEPT 5: A RESCUE IN FLOODED BIRMINGHAM, AL

2011’s THIRTEENTH STORM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHICH WAS FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC ON SEPTEMBER 3 rd BECAME TROPICAL STORM MARIA ON SEPTEMBER 7th

SEPTEMBER 3: HURRICANE KATIA, TROPICAL STORM LEE, AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM MARIA

SEPTEMBER 7: TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORMS AND STARTS PATH