THE USE OF NWP TYPE SIMULATIONS TO TEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATIONS David Williamson National Center for Atmospheric Research.

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Presentation transcript:

THE USE OF NWP TYPE SIMULATIONS TO TEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATIONS David Williamson National Center for Atmospheric Research

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) Steve Klein, Jim Boyle, Ric Cederwall, Mike Fiorino, Jay Hnilo, Tom Phillips, Jerry Potter, Shaocheng Xie PCMDI / LLNL David Williamson, Jerry Olson NCAR WCRP / CAS WGNE TRANSPOSE AMIP Martin Miller, Christian Jakob ECMWF David Williamson NCAR Parameterization Modifications Guang Zhang Scripps Institute of Oceanography Richard Neale NCAR

Forecasts with climate models from operational analyses and reanalyses at climate model resolution Gain insight into parameterization errors by comparing parameterized variables to estimates from field campaigns (e.g. ARM) when states fed to parameterizations are still close to atmospheric analyses Also useful just to examine model state errors

Map fine resolution NWP analyses to coarse resolution climate model grid Spin-up land and parameterized variables to be consistent with atmosphere forced to follow observed atmosphere (or apply a Global Land Data Assimilation System) Additional benefit: establish sensitivity of parameterization behavior to different analyses

NWP goal – make best possible forecast of evolving weather Spin-up of precipitation is common problem occurs because model is inconsistent with analyses Precipitation ignored for first few hours of forecast Our goal – gain insight into model errors Spin-up is primary signal SPIN-UP DURING FORECAST

Forecasts with Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3 and CAM2) coupled to Community Land Model (CLM3 and CLM2) Initialized from ERA40 TOGA-COARE IFA (November 1997) CSU Verification data Data sets for forcing and diagnosing SCM (Ciesielski et al., 2003) ARM SGP ( June/July 1997 IOP) ARM Verification data Data sets for forcing and diagnosing SCM and CRM variational analysis (Zhang and Lin, 1997)

TOGA COARE Intensive Flux Array (IFA) 1-30 November 1992 CSU data from

TOGA COARE IFA Nov ‘92 Solid – CAM3, Dashed – CSU

ARM SGP July ‘97 CAM2 CAM3 20 June – 13 July 1997

IFA Nov ‘92 SGP July ‘97 FORECAST ERRORS

Temperature Balance Equation

June-July ’97 SGP

CONDENSATE FORMATIONRAINFALL EVAPORATION FREEZING OF RAINMELTING OF SNOW

June-July ’97 SGP

CONDENSATE FORMATIONRAINFALL EVAPORATION FREEZING OF RAINMELTING OF SNOW

June-July ’97 SGP CONDENSATE FORMATION RAINFALL EVAPORATION

June-July ’97 SGP CONDENSATE FORMATIONRAINFALL EVAPORATION

June-July ’97 SGP

CAM3 CAM3 WITH ZHANG MODCAM3 WITH NEALE MOD

CONCLUSIONS When Zhang is active, troposphere too warm Errors larger in CAM3 than CAM2 (at SGP) Convective time scale halved in CAM3 Conversion between water and ice added to CAM3 Rainfall evaporation dependence on cloud fraction in CAM3

CONCLUSIONS Composite over like process errors Field campaign measurements essential Need a large variety of cases Do not tell what is wrong with model Indicate which processes are producing wrong state Does not imply incorrect formulation Indicates where to look first to determine why processes act incorrectly Speculation (hypotheses) for further experiments and examination

POSTERS Willett, M., P. Bechtold, D. Williamson, J. Petch and S. Milton, 2006: Modelling the transition from suppressed to deep tropical convection: Comparison of global NWP and climate models with TOGA-COARE (GCSS WG4 Case5). Xie, S., S. Klein, J. Boyle, D. Williamson, and G. Zhang, 2006: Identifying Climate Model Deficiencies in Simulations of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability by Running Climate Model in Forecast Mode and Using Single-Column Model.

Phillips, T. J., G. L. Potter, D. L. Williamson, R. T. Cederwall, J. S. Boyle, M. Fiorino, J. J. Hnilo, J. G. Olson, S. Xie, J. J. Yio, 2004: The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, Boyle, J., D. Williamson, R. Cederwall, M. Fiorino, J. Hnilo, J. Olson, T. Phillips, G. Potter and S. Xie, 2005: Diagnosis of Community Atmospheric Model 2 (CAM2) in numerical weather forecast configuration at Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites, J. Geophys. Res., 110 doi: /2004JD Williamson, D. L., J. Boyle, R. Cederwall, M. Fiorino, J. Hnilo, J. Olson, T. Phillips, G. Potter and S. Xie, 2005: Moisture and Temperature budgets at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site in forecasts with the CAM2, J. Geophys. Res., 110 doi: /2004JD Williamson, D. L. and J. Olson, 2006: A comparison of forecast errors in CAM2 and CAM3 at the AMR Southern Great Plains Site, J. Climate, submitted.

SGP June-July ’97 Forecast Errors June-July Climate Errors

TOGA COARE IFA Nov ‘92