Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Hydrologic and Water Quality Modeling of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Huan Meng 1 (GOVERNMENT PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR), Aditya Sood 2, Micheal Maddox 2, Aisha Sexton 3, Christopher Brown 1, Ralph Ferraro 1, Raghu Murtugudde 2 1 NOAA/NESDIS/CoRP, 2 UMCP/ESSIC, 3 USDA/ARS/HRSL Requirement: 1) Forecasting ecosystem events; 2) developing integrated ecosystem assessments and scenarios, and building capacity to support regional management; 3) advancing understanding of ecosystems to improve resource management. Science: How do we simulate the terrestrial processes in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed and predict the land input (streamflow, sediment, and nutrients) to the Bay for the management and protection of the CB ecosystem? Benefit: Contribute to the NOAA ecosystem mission goal. Provide the scientific information needed for ecosystem management and forecast in the CB watershed. Science Challenges: Developing hydrologic and water quality forecasting capabilities for the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed and providing sound scientific information for the CB ecosystem management. Next Steps: Develop SWAT model for all the major river basins in the CB watershed. Use more satellite products to improve model performance. Transition Path: As a component of CBFS, the CB SWAT system can be transitioned to NOAA for regional earth system forecast and benefit users such as decision makers and coastal communities. Chesapeake Bay Ecosystem  Chesapeake Bay (CB) is the largest estuary in the U.S.  CB has been listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act since Its degraded water quality puts the bay ecosystem at risk including below historic level critical habitats and fish stock.  A major factor responsible for the deteriorating water quality is the land contaminants carried into the Bay from the CB watershed: agriculture leaching, industry pollution, residential waste.  CB watershed encompasses parts of six states and Washington DC. Area: 64,000 mi 2. Population: 16.8 million.  It is imperative to study the point and non-point source pollutions in the CB watershed as well as their transportation and prediction. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Development of Rappahannock SWAT Chesapeake Bay Forecast System (CBFS) Rappahannock SWAT Forecasting System Future Plan  SWAT is a hydrologic and water quality model:  simulates streamflow, sediment, nutrients etc.  major components: weather, hydrology, erosion, nutrients, pesticides, crop growth, agriculture management.  driving force: weather (precipitation, solar radiation, etc.)  developed by USDA for large river basins  CBFS is a prototype integrated regional earth system prediction system being developed at the Earth System Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) of University of Maryland with the support of NOAA.  The objective of CBFS is to provide predictions and projections at days to decades scale for terrestrial and marine ecosystems by assimilating in-situ and satellite-derived data in existing earth system models.  CBFS has three major modules: atmosphere (WRF), land (SWAT), and estuary (ROMS)/biogeochemical models.  WRF provides SWAT with weather forecast data  SWAT forecasts streamflow, sediment and nutrient loadings as river inputs to ROMS.  Other uses of CBFS: land use scenario study, climate change study, decision-making tool, etc.  Rappahannock, one of the six major tributaries in CB watershed, is the pilot river basin.  Data for configuration: DEM, land use, soil property, point source, reservoir, agriculture management.  Data for calibration and validation: weather, streamflow, sediment, and nutrient observations.  Rappahannock SWAT output: daily streamflow and daily sediment, nitrate, and phosphate loads.  Use SWAT-CUP2 method to calibrate.  Calibration period: ; validation period: Rappahannock River Basin Time series of the calibrated flow (partial) Flow(cms) Day (starting on 1/1/2005) Validation: exceedance probability curves of modeled variablesCalibration: exceedance probability curves of modeled variables  Fully automated hydrologic and water quality forecast system  Perform 14-day 20-member ensemble forecast of Rappahannock River flow and loadings of sediment and nutrients.  Use NOAA satellite, radar, and ground observations and products as input. Rappahannock SWAT Skill Score WRF Forecast for HannaRadar Observation during Hanna  Currently configuring and calibrating SWAT for Potomac River basin. Eventually, every major river basin will have an independent SWAT model.  Apply more satellite products:  Assimilate satellite soil moisture data including products from SMOS to improve model performance.  Use satellite vegetation products to dynamically adjust land use data in SWAT model.  Explore the possibility of using satellite evaporation data SWAT Flow Forecast for Hurricane Hanna 9/7/2008