Hypoxia Management tools: indicators & models Bob Wood John Jacobs Heath Kelsey Xinsheng Zhang Cooperative Oxford Lab

This workshop…what I learned Hypoxia is a growing problem Hypoxia is a growing problem There are negative resource impacts associated with hypoxia There are negative resource impacts associated with hypoxia Predictive models are the ultimate target Predictive models are the ultimate target Our knowledge is still incomplete… Our knowledge is still incomplete…

Intersecting objectives NOAA’s place-based Integrated assessment approach NOAA’s place-based Integrated assessment approach –Chesapeake Bay chosen as a ‘proof-of-concept’ for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA) Support commitments to Ecosystem-based fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD) Support commitments to Ecosystem-based fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD) Deliver more with less (“actual actions”) Deliver more with less (“actual actions”)

Ecosystem-based management Support philosophical change in management approach Support philosophical change in management approach –Institutional boundaries must be overcome –Constituents must be informed Link indicators to research, & modeling

MD coastal bays “report card” Management tools: indicators (spatial), models, synthesis

Pathogens & the Coastal Bay Ecosystem Health ‘report card’ Linking Report card values to goods & services

Dissolved Oxygen / Eutrophication gradient Marine / Freshwater gradient Eutrophication/hypoxia in MD Coastal Bays Individual water quality samples Jacobs, Wood, et al.

. DO eutrophication

DO versus Vibrio p. abundance r 2 = 0.28 p<0.0001

Total N vs Mycobacterium abundance r 2 = 0.21 p<0.0001

Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’ Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’ anchor to ecosystem goods & service outcomes Chesapeake WatershedsChl-aDOClarityWQIP-IBIB-IBISAVBIBHHI Patapsco Patuxent Mid Bay Choptank Potomac York Rappahannock N Bay James S Bay Tangier Sound no data Coming soon to…

Moving into Chesapeake Bay Built upon the Bay Program (in MD) WQ monitoring survey Also being mapped: Mycobacterium sp. V.parahaemolyticus Hematodinium

Linking watershed land use patterns to ecological stress Anacostia Annemessex BackCreek Elizabeth Manokin Northeast Patapsco Piscataway Pocomoke Chester Choptank Wicomico Back Bay Corsica Rhode Anacostia Annemessex BackCreek Elizabeth Magothy Manokin Northeast Patapsco Piscataway Pocomoke StMarys Chester Choptank Wicomico Back %Urban %Forest %Agriculture %Wetland Sassafras Honga Little Choptank Monie Severn Mattawoman

DO Urban Land Use Ranking %Urban Land Use & dissolved oxygen

Agricultural Land Use Ranking TDN %Agricultural Land Use & total dissolved nitrogen

A simple model: Bay Anchovy model Dissolved Oxygen Temperature Prey Response functions from literature: e.g., Brandt et al. 1992; Luo & Brandt 1993 Chesapeake Bay Program monitoring data

Bay anchovy Habitat Suitability (growth rate potential) Zhang, Bahner, Wood, Houde, Annis, Harding

Model Performance VIMS VA Bay CPUE (MD DNR seine)

Consider punctuating research & model development with value added products Outreach: Agency managers Agency managers Decision makers Decision makers Constituents Constituents

Acknowlegements Many colleagues from partner institutions including … Center of Marine Biotechnology (U.MD) UMCES – HPL; CBL; IAN Chesapeake Bay Program SERC And others