Population Dynamics and Natural Hazards: Applying Geospatial Analysis Prepared by ISCIENCES LLC * An examination of the use of GIS to explore linkages.

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Population Dynamics and Natural Hazards: Applying Geospatial Analysis Prepared by ISCIENCES LLC * An examination of the use of GIS to explore linkages between environment and security The Digital Earth Geospatial Analysis: Environment and Security in India *for further information contact Douglas S. Way (principal investigator) or Richard C. Cicone

Viewing Global Population Models TerraViva! Spinning Earth – digital Earth on the desktop Free download at Unique visualization of ORNL and CIESIN/UNEP Global Population Models

Viewing Global Population Model ORNL Landscan GP 98 CIESIN GPW 1990

An Application of Geospatial Analysis: Environmental Indications and Warning Environmental Issues - Societal Stress Food production, freshwater resources, water/air pollution, land use change (deforestation, desertification, urbanization) Affect public health, agriculture and industrial development, demographic patterns, local through national political alliances,economic growth, infrastructure planning, crisis response capabilities……. Affect political, economic and social dynamics And are exacerbated by: continued rapid population growth and migration natural hazards and weather variability (shock) events

Value of GIS Technology Environmental Issues are spatial in nature with global to local origins Environmental Issues are dynamic (process and time series) Environmental Issues are subject to natural changes, anthropogenic stressors and shock events GIS facilitates trend analysis and ‘what if’ scenarios GIS provides a strong interface to remote sensing sources Visualization is a strong analysis and communication tool GIS provides a platform for the integration of other data

Environmental Outlook: South Asia with a focus on India Urban population modeling Population Density Change (1960, 1998, 2010) Urbanization Risk (2025) Natural Disaster Vulnerabilities – severe storm risk

Population Density 1998

1960 Population Density 1960 Population 424,391,200

2010 Population 1,182,171,000

Urbanization Risk 2025

Quality Agricultural Land at Risk (2025)

Major Storm Tracks & Risk Areas

Cyclone Vulnerability High 54.8 million Mod. High million Moderate million

Cyclone 5B

Population Possibly Impacted Dark Red: Very High 2.6 million Red High 2.5 million Orange Mod. High 1.8 million Yellow Moderate 10 million

Summary “Digital Earth” will introduce new ways for researchers to assess interactions of humans and nature. Land use change dynamics such as urbanization can be readily captured by satellite remote sensing. Subnational (disaggregated) population models assist analysis of risk due to land use change, or natural hazards. Cartographic modeling is of value to visualize change dynamics and explore implications. Data are becoming more complete, precise and accurate. Trends and alternative scenarios can be modeled as well as assist in their evaluation. Built up spatial information systems can be used to examine “what if” scenarios conduct rapid assessment of real events.