What are potential effects of LCLUC on regional weather & climate? Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human- induced.

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Presentation transcript:

What are potential effects of LCLUC on regional weather & climate? Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human- induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. Five models simulated statistically significant cooling in summer in near-surface temperature over regions of LCC and one simulated warming. There were few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of LCC. The lack of consistency among the seven models was due to: 1) the implementation of LCC despite agreed maps of agricultural land, 2) the representation of crop phenology, 3) the parameterisation of albedo, and 4) the representation of evapotranspiration for different land cover types. This study highlights a dilemma: LCC is regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment. Pitman, A. J., et al. (2009), Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L14814, doi: /2009GL

Charge to the Breakout Groups We are seeking information about data that could support development of Indicators of Phenological Change (IPCs). We will loosely follow the process used by the Heinz Center in the development of their report on “Landscape Pattern Indicators for the Nation”

List of landscape pattern indicators used in the Heinz Report Plants Animals Climate & Hydro LSP & Flux I ndicators of P henological C hange

For each IPC:  Introduction to the IPC  What is the group recommendation?  Why do we care about this indicator?  What are the details of the indicator design?  How will the indicator data be presented?  What do the data show?

Today’s Charge to the Breakout Groups Brainstorming about IPCs  List of phenomena that may be suitable for an IPC.  List of broad questions about the phenomena.  Rank ordering of the questions. Examples: Phenomenon: Timing of spring snowmelt Q1. What is the historic range of variation of the timing of spring snowmelt? Q2. How has the timing of spring snowmelt changed in the past two decades?