Impact Evaluation in Education Introduction to Monitoring and Evaluation Andrew Jenkins 23/03/14

I am cutting rocks The essence of theory of change – linking activities to intended outcomes I am building a temple

Theory of change “the process through which it is expected that inputs will be converted to expected outputs, outcome and impact” DfID Further Business Case Guidance “Theory of Change”

Theory of change Start with a RESULTS CHAIN

The results chain: tips Activities OutputsOutcomes We produce Influence Contribute to We control Clients Clients control We are accountable for We expectShould occurr 100% attribution Some attribution Partial attribution Readily changed Less flexibility to change Long term Delivered annually By end of program Long-term

Monitoring – activities and outputs

Personal Monitoring Tools

No monitoring - blind and deaf

Monitoring and Evaluation MonitoringEfficiency  Measures how productively inputs (money, time, personnel, equipment) are being used in the creation of outputs (products, results)  An efficient organisation is one that achieves its objectives with the least expenditures of resources Evaluation Effectiveness  Measures the degree to which results / objectives have been achieved  An effective organisation is one that achieves its results and objectives

10 All Most Some Inputs Outputs Outcomes MONITORING focused on project process (per individual project) EVALUATION focused on effectiveness of project process (for many projects)  Resources  Staff  Funds  Facilities  Supplies  Training  Project deliverables achieved  “Count” (quantified) what has been done  Short and intermediate effects.  Long term effects and changes

Resist temptation, there must be a better way! Clear objectives Few key indicators Quick simple methods Existing data sources Participatory method Short feed-back loops Action results!

Monitoring/Evaluation objectives must be SMART Specific Measurable Achievable Realistic Timed (see 10 Easy Mistakes, page 5)

Evaluation: who evaluates whom? The value of a joint approach

The Logical Chain 1.Define Objectives (and Methodology) 2.Supply Inputs 3.Achieve Outputs 4.Generate Outcome 5.Identify and Measure Indicators 6.Evaluate by comparing Objectives with Indicators 7.Redefine Objectives (and Methodology)

Impact Evaluation An assessment of the causal effect of a project, program or policy beneficiaries. Uses a counterfactual… Impacts = Outcomes - What would have happened anyway

When to use Impact Evaluation? Evaluate impact when project is: Innovative Replicable/ scalable Strategically relevant for reducing poverty Evaluation will fill knowledge gap Substantial policy impact Use evaluation within a program to test alternatives and improve programs

Impact Evaluation Answers What was the effect of the program on outcomes? How much better of the beneficiaries because of the program policies? How would outcome change if changed program design? Is the program cost-effective?

Different Methods to measure impact evaluation  Randomised Assignment – experimental Non Experimental:  Matching  Difference-in-Difference  Regression Discontinuity Design  Instrumental Variable / Random Promotion

Randomization The “gold standard” in evaluating the effects of interventions It allows us to form a “treatment” and “control” groups – identical characteristics – differ only by intervention Counterfactual: randomized-out group

Matching Matching uses large data sets and heavy statistical techniques to construct the best possible artificial comparison group for a given treatment group. Selected basis of similarities in observed characteristics Assumes no selection bias based on unobservable characteristics. Counterfactual: matched comparison group

Difference-in-difference Compares the change in outcomes overtime between the treatment group and comparison group Controls for the factors constant overtime in both groups ‘parallel trends’ in both the groups in the absence of the program Counter-factual: changes over time for the non- participants

DesignWhen to use Randomization ► Whenever possible ► When an intervention will not be universally implemented Random Promotion ► When an intervention is universally implemented Regression Discontinuity ► If an intervention is assigned based on rank Diff-in-diff ► If two groups are growing at similar rates Matching ► When other methods are not possible ► Matching at baseline can be very useful Uses of Different Design

Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Qualitative methods focus on how results were achieved (or not). They can be very helpful for process evaluation. It is often very useful to conduct a quick qualitative study before planning an experimental (RCT) study.

Thank you!