24/10/2015 The urban heat island (UHI) effect and its sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric flow Koen De Ridder.

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Presentation transcript:

24/10/2015 The urban heat island (UHI) effect and its sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric flow Koen De Ridder

24/10/20152 © 2012, VITO NV The UHI phenomenon » urban-to-rural temperature excess » most intense during the evening and early night » causes: » low albedo » large thermal inertia » limited water availability » poor thermal exchange » anthropogenic heating » …

24/10/20153 © 2012, VITO NV Why it is important Health “The evidence that heat waves can result in both increased deaths and illness is substantial, and concern over this issue is rising because of climate change” Energy Sailor, D. J Urban Heat Islands, Opportunities and Challenges for Mitigation and Adaptation. Sample Electric Load Data for New Orleans, LA (NOPSI, 1995). North American Urban Heat Island Summit. Toronto, Canada. 1-4 May Data courtesy Entergy Corporation. Reid CE, O’Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Brines SJ, Brown DG, Diez-Roux AV, et al Mapping Community Determinants of Heat Vulnerability. Environ Health Perspect 117:

24/10/20154 © 2012, VITO NV VITO’s urban climate model (UrbClim) LAICa urbanized surface energy balance model

24/10/20155 © 2012, VITO NV UrbClim features » nested in output of global- or regional-scale models in such a way that it stays close to the large-scale atmospheric fields (UrbClim calculates an urban increment) » employs generic data sets for Europe (CORINE land cover, satellite vegetation index, …) » operates at a relatively high spatial resolution of 250 m, accounts for urban canopy layer effects » is very fast – typically a simulation for a 120  120  20 domain at 250 m resolution takes  48 hours for a Summer season (May-September)

24/10/20156 © 2012, VITO NV Mean 22:00 UHI intensity Ghent, August 2012 temperature ranges from 0°C (dark blue) to 3°C (dark red)

24/10/20157 © 2012, VITO NV UHI intensity Paris (May-Sep 2003, 22:00 UT) temperature ranges from 0°C (dark blue) to 9.6°C (dark red)

24/10/20158 © 2012, VITO NV UHI versus city size

24/10/20159 © 2012, VITO NV

24/10/ © 2012, VITO NV UHI intensity Ghent (Aug 2012) RMSE ~ 1.0°C BIAS ~ 0.2°C CORR ~ 0.69

24/10/ © 2012, VITO NV UHI prediction CMIP5 UrbClim socio-economic health effects heat stress exposure stratified by population, housing conditions, etc… city selection observations

24/10/ © 2012, VITO NV Service aspects – users time now medium-to-far future (~ ) short-term forecast (~ days) retrospective (~ 10 years) seasonal-decadal predictions urban administrations (environment, …) urban planners climate adaptation hospitals civil protection energy providers ?