Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State of the global climate – SST Forecasts Summary

Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Dec IC, Issued 5 Feb 2013, Valid Feb-Apr 2013, Mar-May 2013 Feb-Apr 2013, Zero Month lead The forecasts call for a slightly elevated chance for above average rainfall to occur over northern Mozambique and Malawi during Feb-Apr There is also a slightly increased chance for above average rainfall over northern Namibia and southwestern Angola, as well as along coastal Guinea. For Mar-May 2013, there is a slightly increased chance for above average rainfall over northeastern Tanzania. Climatology is suggested everywhere else. Mar-May 2013, One Month lead

CPC ENSO Update CPC ENSO Alert Status: Not Active (updated 7 Feb 2013) Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.

Current State of the Global Ocean SST Anomaly (top) and Tendency (bottom) for January 2013 The change in SST anomalies is negative in the equatorial Pacific, suggesting a decrease in SST SST weakened across The central Indian Ocean, though slightly Positive anomalies Persisted along coastal East Africa. SST was below average in the Pacific along the equator east of the dateline. SST remained elevated Along coastal Angola, But has wekened over The past month. Tropical Atlantic SST off the coast of West Africa and in the Gulf of Guinea continued to increase

Weekly SST Anomaly and Tendency for 27 Jan – 2 Feb 2013 SST increased over the Eastern Indian Ocean and decreased over the Western Indian Ocean. Ocean SST off the coast of West Africa decreased, but remained elevated. SST over the Gulf of Guinea increased. SST continued to Decrease over the Central Pacific. Current State of the Global Ocean

200hPa 850hPa Wind Anomaly Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) winds were near average across the central and eastern Pacific. Anomalous wind convergence was evident over the Maritime continent. Anomalous upper-level (200 hPa) winds were westerly over the eastern half of the Pacific. Winds were westerly over the western Indian Ocean and near average over the eastern Indian Ocean.

OLR Anomaly, January 2013 Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed over much of the equatorial western Pacific and in the areas including Indonesia and the Philippines. This represents an eastward shift compare to the month December and reflects the strong MJO events of the past several weeks. Precipitation was suppressed (orange-red shading) over the eastern and central Indian Ocean. In Southern Africa, a zonal dipole with enhanced (suppressed) precipitation over Mozambique (Namibia and Angola) was evident. Precipitation was also enhanced over northeastern Brazil and suppressed in the south.

Summary of State of the Global Ocean in Jan 2013 Neutral ENSO state continued to prevail in January. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were slightly negative across the Pacific east of the dateline. Over the past month, SST remained slightly elevated over the western Pacific and along the east coast of Africa with a warming tendency along the Mozambique Channel. In the Atlantic, SST remained above normal off the coast of West Africa and over the Gulf of Guinea. SST off the coast of Angola decreased, but remained higher than normal. Upper-level zonal winds were westerly over the eastern Pacific, while lower-level were near average across the central Pacific. Precipitation was enhanced over the western Pacific north of the equator and suppressed over eastern Australia and eastern Indian Ocean. This represented a eastward shift of the large scale convection indicative of the influence of a moderately strong MJO event during January.

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook (updated 10 Jan 2012) ENSO-neutral is favored through mid CPC ENSO Monitoring Team

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Jan 2012). Most models predict the persistence of current Niño-3.4 values, with ENSO-neutral (-0.5ºC to +0.5ºC) continuing through the Northern Hemisphere summer CPC ENSO Monitoring Team

Feb-Apr 2013 Mar-May 2013 Apr-Jun 2013 May-Jul 2013 Global SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Initial Conditions 25 Jan – 3 Feb 2013 CFS.v2 predicts above normal SST over the western Pacific, the eastern Indian Ocean,and the south tropical Atlantic. Near average conditions are predicted for the tropical Pacific and the central Indian Ocean through the summer season. Additional forecast resources are found here: g/cfsv2fcst/ Caution: Ocean areas with skill less than 0.3 are shaded in gray Jun-Aug 2013

Global SST Outlook: NMME (left) and IMME (right) Next update Jan 10 FMA MAM

FMA MAM Global Precipitation Outlook: NMME (left) and IMME (right) Next update Jan 10

Summary Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions continue to prevail. However, Sea surface temperature (SST) was below normal over the eastern half of the Pacific and above normal over the western Pacific. SST was above normal over the eastern Atlantic along the coast of Africa and along the east coast of Africa in the western Indian Ocean. SST predictions favor ENSO-neutral and most models do not predict significant departures from climatology in the global tropical oceans Neutral ENSO conditions will contribute to a low confidence in the precipitation forecasts for the coming seasons. Additional forecast resources can be found here: