Partnership Needs  Track wetland change –Extensive wetland loss in ACJV –Typically permanent  Amount of wetlands will be used in determining wintering habitat carrying capacity  NWI not adequate

Overview  Contracted outside partnership  Response variable: areal extent of wetland types  Spatial extent: –Entire ACJV  Spatial resolution –Applicable at multiple spatial scales  Temporal extent: –Historical –Future

Methodology  Zero-inflated Poisson regression techniques  Occurrence and areal extent of 6 wetland classes  1,036 ha (2,560ac) prediction grid  Estimates for: 1950s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s

Predicted Wetland Change StateYear % Change 1970s (Ha) 1990s (Ha) Connecticut99,581 89,171-10% Delaware100,04587,027-13% District of Columbia % Florida5,058,3784,876,250-4% Georgia2,983,6202,864,562-4% Maine1,351,0941,156,253-14% Maryland245,185232,981-5% Massachusetts237,754210,578-11% New Hampshire 177,296174,375-2% New Jersey 331,305325,030-2% New York 809,818822,3642% North Carolina 2,212,1521,867,394-16% Pennsylvania326,124348,5327% Rhode Island 32,68325,505-22% South Carolina 1,818,3511,741,033-4% Vermont114,698101,741-11% Virginia581,469608,5405% West Virginia 66,13795,95145% Total16,545,951 15,627,574 -6%

BCRPredicted Area% Change 1950s1970s1980s1990s(70s-90s) Palustrine EmergentLGL28,40028,10035,50030,3007.8% ANF143,00081,00087,100118, % SCP550,400410,600384,300353, % AMT20,20016,40026,10021, % PMT77,20044,70057,40037, % NMC118,90069,90067,90077, % PFL1,772,5001,328,6001,270,3001,152, %

 Confidence limits as percent change  Currently only able to estimate change at state and BCR level  Future work to reduce spatial scale to project level (additional statistical development)

Wetland Assessment in the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture