Forest simulation models in Portugal: main developments and challenges WG1 Luis Fontes and Margarida Tomé COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management 1st Workshop and Management Committee Meeting. Institute of Silviculture, BOKU. 8-9 of May 2008 Vienna, Austria

Main features of Portuguese forests (1/2) Forest cover (total/share): 3.4 milllions ha/ 37 % of land Growing stock: 67.1 millions m 3 P. pinaster, 41.3 millions m 3 E. globulus Main species: P. pinaster, E. globulus, Q. suber, Q. ilex, P. pinea. Main non-wood products and services: cork, pine kernels soil protection, hunting, biodiversity, recreation

Main features of Portuguese forests (2/2) Main risks: Forest fires and sanitary problems Effects of climate change (droughts, etc) Management and silvicultural characteristics: Plenty of unmanaged forests - low profitability of timber & small size of estates High value of some non-timber products and services Complex forests: mixed and irregular Specialised areas eucalyptus plantations

Forest modelling approaches and trends Empirical models Although tree-level modelling exists most of Portuguese forest models are stand level. Most of forest modelling efforts have been concentrated on Pinus pinaster, Eucalyptus globulus and Quercus suber. Tree models exist for Pinus pinaster, Eucalyptus globulus and Quercus suber Diameter distribution models for Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus

Mechanistic models 3-PG (Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth, Landsberg and Waring 1997) process-based model has been parameterized and validated for Eucalyptus globulus in Portugal GLOB-3-PG hybrid model: a stand level process based model (3-PG) was complemented with existing individual tree and stand growth and yield models Recent research is being carried out parameterizing and validating 3-PG for Pinus pinaster Forest modelling approaches and trends

Modelling non-timber products and services (1/2) Subermodel for cork prediction Parameterization and calibration specifications Geographical region: Portugal Site specifications: sites appropriate for cork oak Species: Quercus suber Forest composition: Monospecific Stand structure: Even and uneven aged stands Model Classification Model type: Empirical growth and yield model Model sub-type: Distance-independent tree model Primary unit of simulation: Tree Time step: Year

Modelling non-timber products and services (2/2) CORKFITS 2.2 Parameterization and calibration specifications Geographical region: Portugal Site specifications: sites appropriate for cork oak Species: Quercus suber Model Classification Model type: Empirical growth and yield model Model sub-type: Distance-dependent tree model Based on potential modifier approach Estimates: Cork growth, stem growth, height growth, etc. Site quality based on soil limitation for cork oak

Modelling for predicting risk of hazards Modelling forest pests Modelling probability of attack of Eucalyptus globulus plantations by Gunipterus sculeatus and Phoracanta semipuntacta Modelling growth loss in Eucalyptus globulus plantations due to Gonipterus sculeatus attack (with 3-PG)

Simulators and information systems Stand level and regional simulators sIMfLOR is a regional simulator (for eucalyptus, maritime pine and cork oak) that includes stand level simulators as one of the modules. The output is a set of sustainability indicators (annual values) Forest level decision support systems sAGfLOR is a decision support system (landscape level) that allows for adjacency restrictions (such as minimum and/or maximum area of harvest, maximization of edges, etc) Process based simulators GLOBLAND – it is a landscape simulator/decision support system based on the GLOB-3PG model

Research highlights Cork oak models The SUBER and the CORKFITS models are the unique models for the cork oak system in Portugal (in Spain there is another model – ALCORNOQUE) Operational use of process based models The operational use of “simple” process based models and its complementation with components from existing empirical models (GLOB-3PG, for instance) is one of the most challenging research topics at the moment

Future challenges Forest models must evolve with the evolution of forest management objectives (multifunctional forestry) Modelling growth and yield taking into account effects of climate change (droughts, etc) Providing support for SFM (biodiversity indicators, etc) Modelling forest resources for liquid fuels

Innovative references Not really innovative… António, N., Tomé, M., Tomé, J., Soares, P. & Fontes, L Effect of tree, stand and site variables on the allometry of Eucalyptus globulus tree biomass. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37: Fontes, L., Landsberg, J., Tomé, J., Tomé, M., Pacheco, C., Soares, P. and Araujo, C Calibration and testing of a generalized process-based model for use in Portuguese eucalyptus plantations” Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36 12: Tomé, J., Tomé, M., Barreiro, S. & Paulo, J. A., Age-independent difference equations for modelling tree and stand growth. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36: Paulo, M. J., Tomé, M., Otten, A. & Stein, A., Comparison of three sampling methods in the characterization of cork oak stands for management purposes. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35: Tomé, M., Paulo, J.A., Almeida, A., Bugalho, M The new version of the SUBER model - predicting multi products from the cork oak ecosystem. Suberwood New challenges for the integration of cork oak forests and products. Abstracts of Conference Presentations and Posters. Universidad de Huelva, October.