FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson Strategic Futures Coaching National Council for Higher Education Valletta, Malta 27 th July 2007 Mob: +44(0)

FUTURE GENERATION Admin. issues Emergencies Facilities Phones

FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA 9.30What is strategic futures analysis? Introduction to scenario planning 10.15Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education Coffee

FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA cont’d Group activity: creating scenarios LUNCH Working with scenarios The scenario toolkit 14.15Closing discussion Close

FUTURE GENERATION What is Strategic Futures Analysis?

FUTURE GENERATION Characteristics Structured, evidence-based process Wide range of analytical tools Resilient and innovative strategies Neutral space for challenge Encourages broader dialogue

….resilient and innovative strategy Resilient and innovative strategic plans Future a “Safe place” for challengingstrategicconversation Prioritisation for businessintelligence,Contingency trigger points Evidence and Analysis to….. Test strategic assumptions ID of priority uncertainties Core analysis on certainties FUTURE GENERATION

Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across Looking across – beyond usual sources Seeing things - you don’t normally see Beyond a single future to Implications for today’s decisions How to get relevant evidence (1) FUTURE GENERATION

How to get relevant evidence (2) Drivers of change: Social Technological Economic Environmental Political

FUTURE GENERATION How to get relevant evidence (3) V Importance (visibility) Time the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them Horizon 1: looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge Horizon 2: the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise. Horizon 3: The lens of now

The journey Purpose and context Senior sponsor Gathering evidence Analysis Communication Decision support FUTURE GENERATION

Combatting short-termism In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for horizon scanning to be embedded into the policy making process UK House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee 2006 FUTURE GENERATION

The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims Strategic context Synergy Capacity building WIST

FUTURE GENERATION UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products Sigma & Delta scans Projects (S&T trends, ATF, Identity management) Strategic Futures Coaching Strategic Futures Networking (FAN Club)

FUTURE GENERATION Analytical toolkit Systems mapping Scenarios Wind-tunnelling Force field analysis

FUTURE GENERATION Be realistic…

FUTURE GENERATION Questions?

FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA 9.30What is strategic futures analysis? Introduction to scenario planning 10.15Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education Coffee

Stories that describe how the world might look in the future  what’s different from today  what we need to do to be successful Based on an analysis of what’s driving change Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated Not predictions or forecasts Help decision makers imagine and manage the future better  identify what’s in their control  identify what isn’t  identify what needs to change to ensure future success Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world FUTURE GENERATION Scenarios…?

Sector Environment internal environment Contextual Environment Driving Forces Technological Economic Environmental Political Societal

Building Scenarios…? FUTURE GENERATION

AGENDA 9.30What is strategic futures analysis? Introduction to scenario planning 10.15Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education Coffee

Sources… Leadership Foundation scenario workshops Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU) Long Term Opportunities and Challenges for the UK (HMT) The Futures Project (Scottish Executive) Empirical observation FUTURE GENERATION

An empowered ageing population …and an ageing crisis Under 20s declining in the UK Rising expectations Rising attainment Emergence of the ethical economy More single households Global economic migration Societal …and increasing in developing economies A widening gender gap

Mobile computing Lots of information Wireless cities Technological Changing work and work places Changing decision making Changing business models Rise of the technologicall y superior learner Skype Blogs You Tube AIM Second Life MySpace

The economics of scarcity or of plenty? Mobile investment Globalisation Labour mobility Increasing value of knowledge Importance of soft skills China Open source and distributed manufacturing Economic End of Doha? …and America Rising dependency ratio Slow or rapid transition to retirement Co-opetition

Oil depletion Water Wars Carbon neutral consumption Pressure to halt global warming Growth within environmental limits? Quest for sustainability Environmental Carbon credits? Right to mobility? Biofuels?

Evolution of the EU Contract between state and citizen e-Democracy Self improving public services Nanny state or light touch? Single Issue everything Policy divergence since devolution Rise of non state actors Step change in customer care Political Culture change Public service reform and competitivene ss Competing demands

FUTURE GENERATION FINAL DISCUSSION

FUTURE GENERATION Understanding context of strategic futures analysis Gathering evidence Analysis tools Using the output to improve strategy

FUTURE GENERATION Building scenarios Key drivers of change Uncertainties Select key variables Write the stories

FUTURE GENERATION Using scenarios Create dialogue Identify research goals Identify choices Define strategy

FUTURE GENERATION Continue the futures journey! Resources: Sigma scan: Delta scan: UK Horizon scanning centre : /index.html Strategic futures analysis tool-kit : /Good_Practice/Toolkit/Toolkit.html UK Department for Transport scenario planning tool-kit (produced by Waverley Management consultants): ?version=1