Scenarios for CO 2 Emissions from the Transport Sector in Asia Presentation by John Rogers 24 th May, 2006

Emerging Asia Population Growth Half of the planet lives in emerging Asia –Increase 750 million by 2030 to 4 billion –The increase is greater than the total population of Europe Urban population will rapidly increase –In China by 81% (2000 – 2025) –In India by 87% Increasing Urban sprawl –Leads to increasing motorization

Emerging Asia Economic Growth All countries have policies to promote economic growth –Essential for poverty alleviation –But should not occur at the expense of the environment and future generations 80% GDP growth is coming from Urban Areas Economic growth stimulates demand –Leads to increasing motorization –Faster than GDP at current levels

Economic Growth l engthens supply and distribution chains Economic Growth l engthens supply and distribution chains

Population and Economic Growth increases Motorization

Transportation Sector Energy Use Transport is the fastest growing energy sector

Energy use for transport is projected to grow China: 6 – 9% per year India: % per year Energy Use = Number of Vehicles xUtilization÷ Fuel Efficiency x Fuel Energy Intensity KJunitskm/yrkm/LKJ/L 6% per year for 20 years is over 300% !! Emerging Asia will demand 45% of the total world increase in oil use

GHG emissions from transport in China, India, and emerging Asia

Vehicle population growth in China Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc See: 9 x by x by 2025

Vehicle population growth in India Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc See: x by x by 2025

Fuel Consumed by on-road transport 3.8 x India 2.8 x China Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

Emissions standards in car populations India China Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc See:

PM10 emissions from on-road transport 1.1 x India 0.5 x China Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

NOx emissions from on-road transport 1.6 x India 1.1 x China Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

CO 2 emissions from on-road transport 3.5 x India 2.7 x China Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

Source: T&E, 2004 Transport is key to mitigating climate change What was that bump?

How can we limit the growth of GHG emissions from transport? Number of Vehicles xUtilization÷ Fuel Efficiency x Fuel CO 2 Intensity Reduce the need to travel Modal Shift Traffic Demand Management Transport Planning Urban Design Pay the full cost of externalities congestion, pollution, climate change roads and parking Engine & Vehicle Technology Traffic Management Vehicle Maintenance Lower Carbon Foot- print with Bio-Fuels and Alternate Fuels

But it is not only a Climate Change problem….. Energy Security Air Quality and Health Traffic and Congestion Quality of Life Economic Development Transport Efficiency The co-benefits of climate change mitigation

Is it urgent? Transport is the source of 60% of the increase in total world-wide GHG emissions 2002 – 2025 Even in the most optimistic scenario temperatures will continue to rise for the whole of this century The most effective actions if started now will take decades to show significant changes

For More Information John A Rogers