Gas in Namibia - Implications for the region

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Presentation transcript:

Gas in Namibia - Implications for the region NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD Roger Swart NAMCOR 1st June 2005 www.namcor.com.na

Talk outline Namibia’s location Why gas? Namibia’s potential Conventional resources Unconventional resources Implications for the region www.namcor.com.na

NAMIBIA www.namcor.com.na

Why gas? Increasing power demand in southern Africa Fastest growing energy resource 70% increase from 2001 to 2025 Clean fuel Cheaper, quicker construction More efficient U.S. & Europe - domestic supply dwindling Significant reserves remain undiscovered www.namcor.com.na

SAPP energy growth www.namcor.com.na

South African Generation Source: SA Department of Minerals and Energy, Integrated Energy Plan, 2003 www.namcor.com.na

Power generation in Europe www.namcor.com.na

Power generation costs in Europe www.namcor.com.na

U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports, 1970 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet) Net Imports History Projections Natural Gas Net Imports, 2002 and 2025 (trillion cubic feet) 2002 2025 www.namcor.com.na

Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections Liquefied Natural Gas Canada Mexico www.namcor.com.na

Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1970-2025 (2002 dollars/thousand cubic feet) 8.44 Reference case (nominal dollars) 1.55 1995 2025 Slow technology 5.10 Reference case 4.40 Rapid technology 3.80 History Projections www.namcor.com.na

Current US LNG terminals www.namcor.com.na

Future US LNG terminals Nearly all of the increase in net US imports is expected to come from LNG www.namcor.com.na

Shipping route c. 17 days sailing www.namcor.com.na

Namibia’s potential www.namcor.com.na Namibe Walvis Lüderitz Orange Kudu Kunene Lüderitz Orange Walvis Namibe www.namcor.com.na

Namibia’s potential Kudu Gas Field Proven 1.4 tcf Considerable upside remains (~8tcf) Advanced feasibility stage 800 MW CCGT in Namibia Extend to 1600 MW later www.namcor.com.na

Namibia’s potential Other Orange Basin Deeper water plays Inboard plays; cf. South African portion Source rock widespread www.namcor.com.na

Namibia’s potential www.namcor.com.na Namibe Walvis Lüderitz Orange Kudu Kunene Lüderitz Orange Walvis Namibe www.namcor.com.na

Block 1711 Originally licence held by Vanco Since November 2004 under NAMCOR curatorship Seeking partners Large (>300 sq km) 4-way closure High relief Abundant DHI’s Potentially large reserves www.namcor.com.na

Regional Seismic Line www.namcor.com.na

Source Syn-rift source Red Cuvo Fm/Bucomazi in Kwanza Lacustrine, oil prone Presently mature at predicted depth Generation in last 20Ma www.namcor.com.na

DHI’s Abundant Gas chimneys Hydrates Thermogenic gas shows Pock marks www.namcor.com.na

Potential reserves www.namcor.com.na Vanco NSAI Kunene Oil Gas on Oil Gas Condensate Dry Gas Oil (MMBO) 733 354 545 87 Gas (BCF) 720 3,857 3,520 5,801 www.namcor.com.na

Surface seeps www.namcor.com.na

Unconventional Resources Hydrates Abundant in Block 1711 Excellent BSR’s Sampled with drop cores Partly thermogenic source Also recognised in Lüderitz Basin www.namcor.com.na

Hydrates www.namcor.com.na

Unconventional resources Hydrates Business challenges Lack of supporting infrastructure Piggy back on conventional development in 1711? What is total volume of gas in place? What is total volume of gas recoverable? What rates can we produce at? Additional operating/maintenance expense? Potentially a huge resource for region www.namcor.com.na

Regional Implications Gas potential of southern Africa high Sufficient to satisfy some of the immediate energy demands of region LNG market in Europe and USA to grow West Africa well positioned Projects will result in significant FDI Positive impact on regional GDP growth www.namcor.com.na

Thank you www.namcor.com.na