Dynamics of macroeconomic stability and financial stability Dr. Shamshad Akhtar Governor State Bank of Pakistan January 14, 2008

Outline 2 I.Conceptual Macroeconomic Framework and its Interrelationships II.Trends in Growth, Money and Prices III.Financial Trends and Stability

Saving-Investment Gap and CAB

How Saving-Investment gap is financed?  Private sector can finance through ― Net foreign borrowing ― Loans from domestic banking system ― Net foreign direct investment  Government can finance the deficit by ― Borrowing from domestic banking system ― Selling bonds/bills ― Obtaining net foreign borrowings

CAB and Money supply  M2 = NFA + NDA So  DM2 = DNFA[BoP] +D credit to government[Fiscal] + D credit to non-govt[Real] +D OIN

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT Interrelationships Among Macroeconomic Accounts Accounting identities Strong accounting relationships REAL SECTOR Private consumption General government consumption Private investment General government investment Exports of goods and nonfactor services Imports of goods and nonfactor services National Accounts EXTERNAL SECTOR Balance of Payments CURRENT ACCOUNT Exports of goods and nonfactor services Imports of goods and nonfactor services Factor services (net) Transfers (net) Official Private CAPITAL ACCOUNT Direct investment Medium/long-term capital (net) Short-term capital (net) Overall balance Change in net foreign assets Revenues Grants Expenditures Current Capital Overall balance Financing Domestic financing (net) Banking system Nonbanking sector External financing (net) Net foreign assets Net domestic assets: Net credit to central govt.. Credit to banks Other items (net) Reserve money Net foreign assets Banks' reserves Net domestic assets: Net credit to central govt. Credit to private sector Other items (net) Liabilities to monetary authorities Private sector deposits Monetary Authorities Deposit Money Banks MONETARY SECTOR

II.Growth, Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

8 Long Term Trends in Inflation and GDP Growth Note: the trends are for 10-year moving averages.

After a loose monetary policy stance from FY02- FY04… SBP had to enter into monetary tightening phase 9 Loose Monetary Stance Tight Monetary Stance

10 Monetary stimulus played a significant role in growth revival…

Growth picked-up – however, with money supply growth outpacing nominal GDP growth CPI rose from 3.5% in FY02 to 9.3% in FY05 11

Food prices are still a major source of volatility and recent price hike; tight monetary policy helped in arresting demand driven inflation as reflected in core inflation 12

13  Changes in policy rate (i.e. SBP 3-day REPO rate): –from 7.5% to 9.0% in April 2005; –from 9.0% to 9.5% in July 2006; –from 9.5% to 10.0% in July  Changes in CRR and SLR –Current CRR are: 7% for demand & time liabilities of less than one year; –Earlier CRR were 3% for time liabilities above 6 month maturity and 7% for demand and less than 6 months time liabilities;  Aggressive liquidity management through OMOs Several Monetary Policy measures have been taken to contain inflation since FY05

Monetary tightening partly diluted due to SBP re- financing schemes and high government borrowings; both issues addressed in FY08… 14

Rising international food and oil prices remain key risk for FY08… While monetary policy is ready to contain demand pull inflationary pressures, cost push factors may pose threat to price stability in FY08. Among others, the key problems are: 1. Rising global commodity prices, in particular steep uptrend in international oil prices. 2.Domestic agriculture crops outcome (particularly wheat, sugarcane & gram) during FY07 was good. However poor demand-supply management has led to crisis situation in the country. 3.Rising per capita incomes, but shortages emerged because of fluctuations in productive sectors or problems with distribution of commodities. 15

Measures to further arrest inflationary trends…  Besides increase in SBP policy rate, SBP recommended the government to retire SBP debt in FY08 (by Rs 62.7 billion) to ease reserve money growth  Introduced policy to reduce commercial banks’ reliance on refinance facilities (envisaged a 30 percent reduction in outstanding refinance at end June 2007 during FY08 without affecting the overall availability of credit to the exporters).  Stepping forward towards a more market based credit allocation mechanism the age old credit planning exercise has been abandoned completely.  SBP has been encouraging long term paper issuance with regular frequency to transfer government reliance from SBP to private financing sources 16

Growing macroeconomic Imbalances are now posing renewed challenges  July-November data reveals that both fiscal and external account deficit will be higher than original projections.  Borrowing from central bank to finance budget is significant and such borrowing is likely to augment inflationary pressures since output will be impacted by the recent disruptions.  The central bank will have to take appropriate measures to further contain demand pressures augmented by fiscal and external deficits.  Extent of monetary tightening would depend on fiscal restraints.

FINANCIAL SECTOR STABILITY

Financial Sector is bank dominated… 19 Composition of Financial Sector Assets

Ownership Structure of the Banking Sector 20 At present the banking sector is predominantly owned by private sector…

Foreign stake is rising in Pakistan’s banking sector… 21

Assets of the Banking System 22 Banking sector assets are growing rapidly…

Banks’ Non-Performing Loans 23 Encouragingly rapid growth is accompanied with improvement in asset quality…

Indicators of Capital Adequacy 24 Increased capital requirement, with improved asset quality, has enhanced soundness of financial sector…

Net NPL to Capital Ratio 25 Banks are well capitalized…

After Tax Return on Assets 26 Banks’ profitability has reached an all time high…

The 2.1 percent ROA during CY06 is significantly higher than the international norms of around 1.0 percent…. 27

Financial Soundness Index (FSI) witnessed that the performance of the banking system has improved substantially over the last five years…. 28

Mutual funds are the fastest growing sub- groups within NBFIs… 29 Composition of NBFIs’ Assets

Insurance penetration is increasing in a steadfast manner… 30 Asset Structure of Insurance and Reinsurance Sectors

By now market capitalization has surged to 48.5% of GDP… 31 Market Capitalization of Karachi Stock Exchange

Banking Sector Growth complements KSE growth… Banks have played a major role in the growth of the KSE-100 index by contributing more than 30 percent in KSE market capitalization 32

Foreign participation in KSE is rising… Foreign participation in KSE market capitalization has increased to 7 percent 33

Future Agenda  Continued effective monetary policy conduct and management  Macroeconomic stability prerequisite for financial sector growth  Consolidation and growth in banking sector  Introduction of Basel II along with strengthening of risk management  Continued strengthening and improvement in governance structure of regulators  Broaden and deepen financial sector reforms o Diversification of financial sector o Augmenting robustness of banking sector o Enhancing financial services penetration Islamic banking Microfinance

Concluded 35

Maturity Mismatches & SBP motive 36 The maturity mismatched aspect has increased for banks operation in Pakistan during recent years. However, SBP has introduced tiered cash reserves requirements for demand and time liabilities to encourage banks to mobilize long term deposits. Some extra slides…

37 Proactive liquidity management has reduced volatility in short-term interest rates…

38 Responsiveness of private sector credit to lending rates has increased…

FX Reserve Adequacy 39 FX Reserves*Import Coverage Reserves to Short Term Liabilities FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY Jan n.a *: Gross FX reserves including SBP and Scheduled banks Reserves