September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 1 Commercial Sector Measure Quest Sources & Findings.

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Presentation transcript:

September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 1 Commercial Sector Measure Quest Sources & Findings

September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 2 Goal Compile a modern list of measures Characterize key uncertainties Characterize the population to which the measures apply Identify range of cost-effectiveness

September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 3 List of Sources for Measures NPPC 4P Tellus for NEC Xenergy 2002 CA ACEEE Emerging Tech ACEEE Codes & Stand ACEEE Package Refrigeration Energy Trust Oregon LBNL Refrigeration LBNL Office Equipment NEEA RTF E-Source Tech Briefs USDOE

September 30, Results Slim on commercialized technological break throughs –But costs declining & quality increasing Several new applications and markets –Old technology applied to new “stock” More squishy stuff on the list –Design, controls, practices

September 30, New Technology Lighting –T5 and white LED still emerging US –Daylight dimming controls on the verge –0.8 w/sf is attainable in office redesign –CFL has commercial applications –Controls improving: sensors & switching –Biggest savings in integrated system design

September 30, New Technology Envelope: –Windows –Cool Roofs HVAC: –Demand control ventilation –EC Motors Process: –Aeration control, BacGen –High-velocity hand dryer

September 30, Old Tech on New “Stock” Refrigeration measures – Beverage vending machines; ice-makers; reach-ins; and beverage merchandisers. Savings 20-50%. Office Equipment Control –“Time clocks” on PC Networks, equipment circuits Packaged HVAC replaces built-up Duct sealing goes commercial

September 30, Seeing More Squishy Stuff: Its not just widgets any more Big savings require more human intervention in design, application & operation –Chiller optimization –Commissioning –HVAC control strategies –Integrated building design new & retrofit –Daylighting

September 30, Weak Links Estimates of saturation of efficient measures –Present adoption rate, program impacts –Data Sources: CBSA, evaluations, widget sales Estimates of natural penetration of measures –Future trends absent programs Codes & standards Market trends Life of equipment, business, remodel/renovation Estimates of program penetration

September 30, Weak Links (2) HVAC interactions & lighting changes –From 2.4 w/sf to 0.8 w/sf –Heating loads > cooling in PNW –High fraction of electric heat –Economizer interaction –No metered studies PNW

September 30, Weak Links (3) Range of cost-effectiveness –Large variance in cost-effectiveness of most measures depending on application –Leave some potential on the table by using average benefit/cost ratio cut-off –Seek estimate of distribution of savings per unit

September 30, Weak Links (4) Prototype Bias –Good for measure interaction and incremental measure cost-effectiveness –Poor for representing the base stock to which measures apply, distribution of savings and of cost-effectiveness

September 30, Summary: Xenergy 2002 CA July 2002 Existing buildings retrofit and ROB only PG&E, SCE and SDG&E Near-term potential only No heating or water heating measures About 50 measures

September 30, Xenergy 2002, CA

September 30, Xenergy 2002, CA

September 30, Xenergy 2002, CA

September 30, Xenergy 2002, CA

September 30, Xenergy 2002, CA