Australia’s future population – where are we going? Patrick Corr Director, Demography Program Australian Bureau of Statistics 3 March 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Australia’s future population – where are we going? Patrick Corr Director, Demography Program Australian Bureau of Statistics 3 March 2011

What are population projections? Projections are not forecasts or predictions  Simply illustrations of the growth and change in population  IF: certain assumptions about the levels of fertility, mortality, internal and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period.

The role of the ABS National statistical agency  Impartial and objective History of ABS projections:  ABS has been producing projections since Sept 1950 Census data is used in the development of ABS population projections ABS is not legally required to produce population projections, however, ABS is in the best position to do so.

Assumptions: 2008 release Life expectancy at birth (years) Total fertility rate (babies per woman) Net overseas migration (persons) MalesFemales Series A2.0220, Series B1.8180, Series C1.6140,

Projection outcomes Series B: 31.4 Series A: 35.0 Series C: 28.7

Population distribution High population growth in the capital cities  Perth and Brisbane are projected to grow at the highest rate (average annual growth of 1.6%) over the period to 2056, closely followed by Darwin (1.5%). According to Series A, Melbourne will overtake Sydney as the most populous city in Australia in 2039.

An ageing population Median age: 37.5 yearsMedian age: 41.1 years Series B

An ageing population Median age: 37.5 yearsMedian age: 41.1 years Series B

An ageing population Median age: 37.5 yearsMedian age: 41.1 years Series B

Projected working age population (persons aged 15 to 64 years), Persons (millions) 30 June

Growth rates, working age population (persons aged 15 to 64 years), Growth rate (%) Year ending 30 June

Projected population, persons aged 15 and 65 years, Series B, Persons 30 June

Key projection series Medium- to long-term projections  ABS: Population Projections, Australia, (cat. no )  Treasury: Intergenerational Report (IGR) 2010 Short-term projections  ABS: Treasury Budget projections (found in Budget Paper 3)  ABS: AEC Enrolment projections

Key users of Projections State and territory planning agencies - Regional projections Treasury - Intergenerational Report - Budget Health planning and reporting Sustainable Population Strategy

Long-term projections ABS (Series B)IGR 2010 Total fertility rate 1.8 babies per woman1.9 babies per woman (from 2013) Life expectancy - males 85.0 years87.7 years Life expectancy - females 88.0 years90.5 years NOM 180,000180,000 (from 2012) Population 33.9 million35.9 million Average Annual Growth rate ( ) 1.4%1.2% Population at 2050

Short-term projections ABS (Series B)Budget paper 3 Total fertility rate 1.8 babies per woman1.9 babies per woman Life expectancy - males 85.0 years Life expectancy - females 88.0 years NOM 180,000222,000 (180,000 by 2013) Population 23.0 million23.6 million Average Annual Growth rate ( ) 1.5%1.9% Population at 2013

Limitations of population projections Projections can not predict the future; assumptions are often based on past trends. No method of calculating projections can account for the recent dramatic changes in NOM. Dealing with uncertainty.

Using projections in a informed way Obtain regular updates Understand the assumptions used to create the projections Understand what you are using the data for Use recent estimated resident population (ERP) data to see where the population is tracking and make comparisons to the projected population  Currently, ERP is higher than Series A (2008 series)

See you at Connect with Census…