A Strategic Approach to Climate Change in the Philippines: An Assessment of Low-Carbon Interventions in the Transport and Power Sectors (Study commissioned by the World Bank) George Esguerra Study Team Leader Transport and Traffic Planners, Inc. CEBU CITY TRANSPORT STUDIES COORDINATION CONFERENCE 9 May 2009, Cebu City

Context of Study Philippines is minor emitter of GHG (less than 0.3% of global GHG emissions) Emissions on the rise due to energy use and land use changes Increasing number of development projects offering opportunities for cost effective mitigation and adaptation The World Bank adopted a new development paradigm - “Development and Climate Change: A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group” (October 2008) Transport and power sectors provide potential for high net-return interventions

Related Work ADB Asia Least-Cost GHG Abatement Strategy (ALGAS, 1998) - study on 12 Asian countries covering 1990 GHG inventories, emission projections to 2020, and analysis of mitigation options ADB Regional Review of the Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia (RRECCS, 2009) - focus on Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam Follow-on to Carbon Cutting Congress vs. Climate Change (November 2008) Preparation of Second National Communication on Climate Change (PTF on Climate Change)

Recent Developments Administrative Order 254, dated 30 January 2009, calling for the formulation of National EST Strategy for the Philippines (led by UPNCTS with government agencies) DOE-led Alternative Fuels Program (biofuels) DENR-led National Economic and Environmental Development Study (NEEDS) New initiatives to improve public transport operation/ introduce BRT in Metro Manila and Metro Cebu  Ayala BRT Study (Ayala Center to Fort Bonifacio)  World Bank/MMDA Development of Bus Rapid Transit for Metro Manila  World Bank/MMDA CDM Project for EDSA Organized Bus Route  World Bank/Cebu City Study and Concept Plan for a Demonstration Bus Rapid Transit Corridor  ADB-CDIA Feasibility Study on the South Road Properties (SRP) - BRT

Study Objectives To evaluate the potential for GHG reduction in the transport and power sectors over the immediate, medium and long term periods (up to 2030) To assess low-carbon interventions based on cost-effectiveness analysis To prepare implementation strategies taking into account policy, regulatory, institutional, technological, market, and other barriers

Study Framework (Transport)

Scope of the Study Task 1: Review of developments in the transport and power sectors Task 2: Identification of emission reduction interventions Task 3: Development of an approach and methodology for assessing cost-effectiveness Task 4: Estimation of emissions for baseline and low-carbon scenarios Task 5: Identification of development barriers and formulation of implementation strategies

Programmatic Approach Likely programs to be evaluated:  Optimization of operation in public transport routes  BRT introduction in key metropolitan areas and cities  Freight transport and logistics coordination  Energy efficient vehicles  Motor vehicle inspection and maintenance  Non-motorized transport  Urban land use planning

Recent Discussions on Follow-on Work UPNCTS: Further study on emission factors under Philippine driving conditions, particularly paratransit modes (jeepneys and tricycles) CAI-Asia: Proposed Study on Emissions from the Philippines’ Inter-city and Intra-city Road Transport

Study Organization World Bank Dr. Jan Bojö, Lead Economist, Operations and Policy Unit (EASOP), East Asia & Pacific Region; and Mr. Victor Dato, Infrastructure Specialist, WB Office in Manila Study Team Mr. George Esguerra, Team Leader Mr. Nabor Gaviola, Public Transport Specialist Mr. Samuel Custodio, Energy Planning Specialist Dr. Cindy Tiangco, Clean Energy Specialist