Census.ac.uk The UK Census Longitudinal Studies Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews

Census.ac.uk The England and Wales: Longitudinal Study covers England and Wales: approximately 1% sample: 1971 onwards – c. 540,000 The Scottish Longitudinal Study covers Scotland: 5.3% sample: 1991 onwards – c. 280,000 The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study covers Northern Ireland: 28% sample: 2001 onwards - c.500,000); -also the Northern Ireland Mortality Study: 100% sample, links deaths since 2001 to 2001 Census data` The Longitudinal Studies:

Census.ac.uk England and Wales: Longitudinal Study Structure 1971 Original sample: 530,000; selected from 1971 Census ,000 sample members found at 1981 Census ,000 sample members found at 1991 Census ,000 sample members found at 2001 Census Plus members of household Entrants ( ) New Births 255,700Immigrants 146,100Exits ( )Deaths 226,200Embarkations 35,800 Births to sample women 243,700 Events 1971 – 2006Widow(er)hoods 78,100 Cancer registrations (to 2005) 104,800

Census.ac.uk Core data in all the LS’s

Census.ac.uk

Can add in hospital admissions

Census.ac.uk Types of study design using the Census Longitudinal Studies 1.Cross-sectional at each census (1971,1981,1991, 2001) 2.Longitudinal: investigating same people at 2+ Census points 3.Longitudinal: fertility, cancer incidence and mortality by Census characteristics before and after the event 4.Cross-sequential : comparing change in two cohorts (e.g. class mobility 1971 to 1991 with class mobility 1981 to 2001) 5.Inter-generational (parental characteristics of sample members by their adult characteristics in a later Census)

Census.ac.uk How to use the LS’s: conditions imposed by the need for confidentiality Data are held in secure setting and can’t be downloaded Projects are scrutinised by a Board before approval Safe Setting Access to LS: ONS - London, Hampshire or South Wales NRS– Edinburgh NISRA - Belfast - or send code (eg in STATA or SPSS) which will be run for them by CeLSIUS support officers Individual-level data cannot leave the secure setting – instead, tables, models or aggregated datasets are released Outputs are scrutinised for possible disclosive elements (can limit detail of ethnicity, small-area geography and occupation) Presentations, articles, theses etc. must be scrutinised again before being made public and the standards are more rigorous.

Census.ac.uk Work, permanent sickness and mortality risk: a prospective cohort study of England and Wales, Akinwale B, Lynch K, Wiggins R, Harding S, Bartley M & Blane D Published in Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 2010, /jech The research question: labour market participation by men has fallen in recent decades. much of this decline is accounted for by increases in permanent sickness. there is speculation that some of the permanently sick have less severe conditions than previously.

Census.ac.uk The study: used data from the ONS Longitudinal Study samples were selected from each census: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 of men aged and women aged either employed, unemployed or economically inactive at census samples were followed up for five years to identify deaths analysis: age-specific death rates, Standardised Mortality Ratios, odds of reporting limiting long-term illness Results: the pattern of relative mortality risk remained remarkably stable during for both men and women of working ages, it was persistently lowest among those in work and highest among the permanently sick

Census.ac.uk Labour market position In work100 Unemployed Retired Permanently sick Other inactive Table 4 Standardised Mortality Ratios for men aged Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, authors’ analysis. Deaths 1-5 years after census.

Census.ac.uk Background: Suicide rates vary between areas: individual characteristics (composition) or area characteristics (context)? Aim: To determine if area factors are independently related to suicide risk after adjustment for individual and family characteristics. Method: 5-year record linkage study using NIMS based on c.1.1 million individuals aged years (and not living in communal establishments) Results: i.suicide risks lowest for women & for those married/cohabiting; ii.higher relative risks recorded in more deprived & socially fragmented areas disappeared after adjustment for individual & household disadvantage Area Factors & Suicide

Census.ac.uk Suicide (Daily Mirror)

Census.ac.uk Long-term health conditions

Census.ac.uk 2011 Census – Other key changes General Health - Expanded from a 3 point scale in 2001 to a 5 point scale in 2011 Limiting long term illness - expanded

Census.ac.uk 2011 Census – Other key changes Marital status question expanded to allow people to indicate their civil partnership status following the Civil Partnership Act 2004

Census.ac.uk School Education data – 3 datasets. - School Census data - SQA attainment data - Attendance/ absence & exclusions data available

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1947 Scottish Mental Survey 1939 register Birth 1936 ED code, address, household members: marital status, occupation The Scottish Longitudinal study Scottish morbidity records 1939 books recorded the date of death (up to 1980) linkage to the death database (1974 onwards) Education Employment

Census.ac.uk Early life environment Hospitalisation Mortality Birth Age Year Mental ability 11 School Achievement (time estimated) 1947 Occupation (estimated) Detailed household/ individual information

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