EU Conference on TransAtlantic Solutions to Sea Level Rise The Science, Politics, and Policy- Making of Climate Change Dr. Glen Sussman Department of Political Science and Geography Old Dominion University

The Greenhouse Effect

The Keeling Curve

19 th Century Greenhouse Effect Pioneers  Joseph Fourier Jean Baptise, French Mathematician, 1827  John Tyndall, British Scientist, 1861  Svante Arrhenius, Swedish Chemist, 1896 Similar findings: warming of the earth is associated with a buildup of greenhouse gases

The Scientific Basis of Climate Change  Modern Timeline: 20 th Century –G.S.Callendar, British engineer in the late 1930s –Roger Revelle and Hans Suess of Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the 1950s –James Hansen, Head of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies at NASA in the 1980s Added to existing knowledge about the relationship between greenhouse gases, the warming of the planet, and climate change Added to existing knowledge about the relationship between greenhouse gases, the warming of the planet, and climate change

The Scientific Basis of Climate Change  Recent Research: 21 st Century –The U.S. National Research Council in 2001 –The U.S. EPA in 2006 –The IPCC 4th Report in 2007 –The U.S. Supreme Court in 2007 –James McCarthy, Harvard biologist and President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 2009 –The EPA in 2009 –The IPCC 5 th Report in 2013 Consensus about accumulations of CO 2 in the atmosphere and the warming of the planet and human activities as a major contributor of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Politics of Global Warming and Climate Change  The Problem and the Politics –Michael Kraft  Three generations of environmental problems –First: Air and water quality –Second: Toxic and hazardous waste –Third: Global in origin and effects  Included in third level problems are biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming/climate change –Politically controversial and affected by entrenched economic interests

The Climate Change “Debate”  Three Major Categories –Those who have formulated their views based on science that human activities are a major contributor to climate change –Those who acknowledge global climate change but believe that it is due primarily to natural conditions rather than human activities –Those who argue that it is a hoax

Politics and Adaption Strategies Politics and Adaption Strategies  Politics as a Fundamental Hurdle to Effective Policy-Making (i.e., adaption strategies) –The significance of domestic politics in responding to climate change –Sources of political conflict  Entrenched economic interests (fossil fuels, manufacturing, electoral incentives, benefits for selected states and provinces)  Environmental movement

Adaption Strategies  The need for effective multi-level action in response to climate change effects –Issues: sea level rise, public health, wildfires, ocean acidification, coral reefs, biodiversity among others –What is the probability that national governments can craft effective adaption strategies? –Hampton Roads and Sea Level Rise  Collection of cities with a history of conflict  What is the probability that Hampton Roads can work together to achieve effective adaption strategies in response to sea level rise?

Adaption Strategies and Sea Level Rise (Borrowing from James Lester) Commitment Commitment HighLow 1 2 HighLow 1 2 High High Capacity Capacity Low 3 4 Low 3 4

Adaption Strategies and Sea Level Rise  Capacity and Commitment 1: High Capacity / High Commitment = progress 2: High Capacity / Low Commitment = obstruction 3: Low Capacity / High Commitment = constraints 4: Low Capacity / Low Commitment = status quo