Climate Science How serious is the problem? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014

The argument as portrayed in the press Yes Is climate change real? No Do something Do nothing

The real argument is much more complicated Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.)

The real argument is much more complicated Are humans responsible? Yes. (Not sure how much.) Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.)

President Obama’s Tweet (May 16, 2013)

Examined abstracts of 14,000 papers on climate. Did not interview authors. Selected 2,000 which addressed climate change. Concluded that 97% either: –State that humans are the primary cause of observed global warming, or –State or imply that humans caused some of the observed warming, but don’t say how much. Professor Cook’s Study

President Obama’s Tweet (May 16, 2013) and, to some degree, ˆ

The real argument is much more complicated Are humans responsible? Can we predict future warming? No! Climate system is too complex. Scientific understanding is insufficient. Yes. (Not sure how much.) Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.)

Complex Systems – Bird Swarms Can we predict their behavior?

How do we know whether we understand the problem? Science!

1.Guess 2.Compute the consequences of the guess 3.Compare the computation results to nature Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman on the Scientific Method

“It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.” Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman on the Scientific Method

The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist

The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist

Palmer Drought Severity Index for US Source: NOAA Dry Wet

The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist

# of Category 5 Hurricanes since 1949 Trend Source: Unisys hurricane data base There have been no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since September 6, 2007.

Climate computer models cannot yet make any meaningful predictions. The atmosphere has not experienced any net warming in the last 15 years.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a committee. Committees do politics, not science.

Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. Richard Feynman

We do not know if climate change is: Catastrophic Unimportant Beneficial

How much does carbon mitigation cost? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014

CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation Easy and cheap Harder and more expensive Difficult and painful $/tonne of CO 2

CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful

Easy steps Plant a tree Negligible impact

Easy steps Compact fluorescent lights 0.4% carbon reduction

Easy steps Change your thermostat 2° 0.07% reduction

Hybrid cars ($165/mt) 0.8% reduction Harder steps

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful Hybrid cars

Harder steps Nuclear power ($180/mt) Cost twice as much as natural gas Safety? Public acceptance?

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful Nuclear

Harder steps Onshore wind power ($190/mt) Cost twice as much as natural gas Low utilization Intermittent

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful Onshore wind

Really painful steps Electric cars ($600/mt) Cost twice as much Poor performance (low range) Not much reduction with today’s grid

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful Electric cars

Solar ($700/mt) Cost 4-5X as much as natural gas Low utilization Intermittent Really painful steps

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful Solar

Light rail ($10,000/mt) Huge capital cost Low ridership Some systems save no CO 2 ! Really painful steps

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful Light rail

Carbon capture and sequestration (?/mt) Unproven technology Cost and performance unknown Really painful steps

Impact of carbon taxes US current emits ~5 billion metric tons of CO 2 annually A $20/mt tax = $100 billion per year $1,000 per household A $200/mt tax = $1 trillion per year $10,000 per household A $500/mt tax = $2.5 trillion per year $25,000 per household

Question: How much should we pay to insure against an unknown risk?

Climate Change What should we do? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014

Effective policies require: A clear understanding of the issue A pathway to a solution

D-Day (June 6, 1944) What does it take to win?

OECD Europe US Global CO 2 Emissions from Energy 1990 = 22 Billion tonnes China Source: Energy Information Administration Rest of the World

OECD Europe US China Global CO 2 Emissions from Energy 2013 = 33 Billion tonnes Source: Energy Information Administration Rest of the World

OECD Europe US China Global CO 2 Emissions from Energy 2030 = 41 Billion tonnes Source: Energy Information Administration Rest of the World

UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes: 40-70% reduction from 2010 levels by % to 3.0% annual reductions

40% reduction case

President Obama’s Climate Plan (“War on Coal”) would reduce 2030 global emissions by ~1%. A contribution of 3% of the IPCC requirement. 40% reduction case US The US nuclear revival

The EU target for 2030 is a 40% reduction versus 1990 levels. A contribution of 8% of the IPCC requirement. 40% reduction case EU

China and Germany, in particular, have made the clean energy transition central to their overall economic development strategies.. “The Green Industrial Revolution and the United States” Center for American Progress December, 2013

Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013 Natural Gas (8%) Nuclear (19%) Wind (10%) Solar (6%) Hydro (4%) ?

Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013 Coal (53%) Natural Gas (8%) Nuclear (19%) Wind (10%) Solar (6%) Hydro (4%) Wind+1.3 TWh Solar+1.8 TWh Coal+7.7 TWh Growth 2013/2012 Wind+1.3 TWh Solar+1.8 TWh

2013 Electric Power Supply, US vs Germany Coal (53%) Natural Gas (8%) Nuclear (19%) Wind (10%) Solar (6%) Hydro (4%) Coal (40%) Natural Gas (28%) Nuclear (20%) Wind (4%) Solar (<1%) Hydro (7%) 0.50 kg CO 2 /kWh0.46 kg CO 2 /kWh

China’s CO 2 emissions from coal in 2030 (assuming no solar or wind) 12.1 billion mt CO 2 Wind (5%) Solar (3%) GW Wind92400 Solar10270 Projected growth 12.1 billion mt CO 2 → 11.2 billion mt CO 2 Equivalent to a 2% reduction in global carbon emissions

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful The European Trading System (ETS) has a current price of ~$8/mt.

$/tonne of CO 2 CO 2 reduction 0 100% Carbon mitigation $20 $200 Easy Hard Really painful The US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) has a current price of ~$5/mt.

If you believe there is a problem, show us a solution!