Geoengineering A viable techno-fix to climate change or another man-made disaster in waiting?

The Problem “Climate change is the greatest moral, economic and environmental challenge of our generation… The argument that we must not act until others do is an argument that has been used by political cowards since time immemorial."” – Kevin Rudd

The Problem  The general consensus is to reduce carbon emissions to mitigate the damage done by climate change  But estimates show that a reduction of CO 2 emissions by 50% right now would still not halt climate change  A potential solution is Geoengineering

What is Geoengineering?  “Large scale engineering of our environment in order to combat or counteract the effects of changes in atmospheric chemistry” – US National Academy of Sciences, 1992  “The deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system, in order to moderate global warming” – UK Royal Society, 2009

What is Geoengineering?  The deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment. Geoengineering methods can be largely classified into two main groups: Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Solar Radiation Management (SRM) - IPCC, 2010

Geoengineering proposals  Some of the examined proposals include:  Creating “artificial trees” to filter the carbon dioxide from the air  Reforesting land and preventing further deforestation  Setting up mirrors in space to reflect sunlight  Spraying chemicals/seawater into clouds to alter their albedo (reflectivity)  Essentially, there are two main categories:  Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)  Solar Radiation Management (SRM)

Carbon Dioxide Removal  Carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change by removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere  Physical means to alter the chemistry of the atmosphere through biological, engineering and chemical methods

Carbon Dioxide Removal  Some proposed methods include  Iron fertilisation of algae in the oceans  Reforesting and prevention of deforestation  Change in land use management  Natural biomass and biochar methods  Enhancement of natural weathering processes  Directly captured carbon capture and storage Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate, (2009)

Carbon Dioxide Removal  “Carbon Dioxide Removal methods would be preferable to Solar Radiation Management methods because they effectively return the climate system to closer to its natural state, and so involve fewer uncertainties and risks”  “Of the Carbon Dioxide Removal methods assessed, none has yet been demonstrated to be effective at an affordable cost, with acceptable side effects.” Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate, (2009)

Solar Radiation Management  “Solar radiation management techniques attempt to offset effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations by causing the Earth to absorb less solar radiation”  Whole idea is to control the climate by controlling the levels of solar radiation the Earth receives i.e. allow less of the gases in and get more of them out Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate, (2009)

Solar Radiation Management  “Compared to Carbon Dioxide Removal methods, Solar Radiation Management techniques are expected to be relatively cheap and would take only a few years to have an effect on the climate once deployed. However there are considerable uncertainties about their consequences and additional risks.” Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate, (2009)

Solar Radiation Management  “The implementation of any large-scale Solar Radiation Management method would introduce additional risks”  “Solar Radiation Management methods should not be applied unless there is a need to rapidly limit or reduce global average temperatures.” Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate, (2009)

The Players Who is involved in the whole debate? Who is for and who is against? How does what they say shape public opinion Why?

Faultline 1 Symbolism  What does geoengineering symbolise?  Another intervention by man to mimic natural systems and forces to fix their problems  Further interference with nature may be seen as another attempt by man to control their environment  What implications does this whole concept have for science and its role in society?

Faultline 1 Symbolism  The public and environmentalist reaction  Sceptical; A lot of these options sound far-fetched and a bit out there, but at the same time have the air of plausibility  Concern over what is actually being done to achieve the cooling effect

Faultline 1 Symbolism  Concern over unintended consequences and what happens in the case of a disaster  Fear of the unknown, is it well founded?  Opposition and hostility because it is tampering with what is considered to be natural (again)

Faultline 2 Expertise and Authority  Is there a scientific consensus?  Yes and No  Scientific consensus that geoengineering should be a last resort measure  Consensus that these options must be researched  A well researched option, no matter how desperate, is required in case it needs to be put into place

Faultline 2 Expertise and Authority  However, there is great debate and criticism against geoengineering  This debate is scientist vs scientist and organisation vs organisation rather than good science vs bad science  Most are highly critical of the (often unintended) consequences of geo-engineering

Faultline 3 Technology & Technopolitics

What does the ‘science’ say?  Royal Society Report on Geoengineering the Climate  A report that was designed to examine geoengineering as a potential solution to climate change  Produced by scientists from specialists in their disciplines from various developed countries  namely the UK, USA and Canada This report had lots of ‘scientific expertise’  Many scientific experts who were at the top of their respective fields Image credit: Royal Society

What does the ‘science’ say?  Agreed that early and effective action was the key to combatting climate change  Stated that “no geoengineering method can provide an easy or readily acceptable alternative solution to the problem of climate change…

“However, geoengineering could potentially be useful in future to augment continuing efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing emissions and so should be subject to more detailed research and analysis” What does the ‘science’ say?

 Regarding Carbon Dioxide Removal methods: “Methods that act by removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere involve fewer uncertainties and risks but would have a much slower effect on reducing global temperature”  Regarding Solar Radiation Management methods: “Methods that act rapidly by reflecting sunlight may prove to be ineffective in offsetting changes in rainfall patterns and storms, but current climate model are not sufficiently accurate to provide a reliable assessment of these at regional levels”

What does the ‘science’ say?  Key recommendations included  Increase efforts towards mitigating and adapting to climate change  Agree to global emissions reductions of at least 50% by 2050  Further research and development on geoengineering options should be undertaken in case it becomes necessary for drastic action

“The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors”

A deeper look into the methods  “If these methods are to manage a significant fraction of global emissions, they will require the creation of an industry that moves material on a scale as large as (if not larger than) that of current fossil fuel extraction, with the risk of substantial local environmental degradation and significant energy requirements”  “Enhanced weathering might require mining on a scale larger than the largest current mineral extraction industry, and biologically based methods might require land at a scale similar to that used by current agriculture worldwide.”

What does the ‘public’ say? /still-more-on-climate-engineering/ /still-more-on-climate-engineering/ /should-we-reengineer-the-planet/ /should-we-reengineer-the-planet/ /more-on-reengineering-what-about-the- oceans/ /more-on-reengineering-what-about-the- oceans/ /is-geoengineering-inevitable/ /is-geoengineering-inevitable/

26/scientists-call-for-geo-engineering- regulation/ /scientists-call-for-geo-engineering- regulation/ geo-engineering-may-prevent-us-needing-it geo-engineering-may-prevent-us-needing-it about-energy/geo-engineering.aspx about-energy/geo-engineering.aspx What does the ‘public’ say?