Dutch bargain or Dutch treat? Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections2 Why projections ? Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings If not, what further measures/policies are needed? Input for modeling future health and ecosystem impacts. Latter is used for spatial planning procedures.

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections3 How projections ? projection ≠ prediction; projections are scenario’s Method: E proj = A proj * ef proj E proj = possible future Emission A proj = possible future Activity ef proj = possible future Emission Factor

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections4 Scenario’s envisaged Private responsibility International co-operation National sovereignty Strong Europe SE Public responsibility Transatlantic Market TM Global Economy GE Regional Communities RC

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections5 History of projections Lessons from the past Late eighties “Concerns for tomorrow” : 6 Environmental outlooks Quality of projections? What were the problems?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections6 Historical trend

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections7 Policy and measures starting point is ‘concrete’ policy, meaning sufficiently operational, accompanied by instruments, funded, laid down in an official document and for which powers have been granted. Following this CLE, an Additional Measures scenario is constructed

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections8 Overview of policy: transport Emission standards for (road) transport BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by relative energy efficiency sulphur level standards for fuels

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections9 Overview of policy: agriculture Compulsory use of manure storage covers Compulsory low-emission application of manure to land Low-emission livestock housing Use standards (manure policy) BEES 1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse horticulture 1 Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections10 Overview of policy: other NO x ETS 1 BEES Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NeR) IPPC-BAT Oil to gas fuel switch NMVOC Reduction Plan Solvents Decree and Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions 1 Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections11 Measures in the pipeline SO 2 agreements with refineries and energy producers IPPC-BAT Oil to gas fuel switch NMVOC Reduction Plan Solvents Decree and Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions 1 Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

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Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections13 Latest projections Reference Projections Energy and Emissions Two scenarios picked for reference projections: Global Economy and Strong Europe.

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections14 Input for projections growth factors for different sectors from CPB (economical), LEI (agricultural), FOI (industry), ECN (energy) and NEAA (population, socio-economic, etc.) technological advancements from various international and national institutes (e.g. BREF documents)

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections Workshop request for ‘aspirational’ scenario for TFIAM seeking co-operation with other groups. national experts available who could share experiences on longer term scenario building ‘backcasting’ the necessary steps. ‘2050-workshop’ end 2008 with goal to publish a paper in spring link with climate modeling strategies please contact

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections16 Thank you !