Ordem e Progresso or nem ordem, nem progresso?

Brazil Random Facts Portuguese Empire Almost 200 million Bigger than the lower 48 of the US Invented the airplane?

Early Brazil Brazilian independence Imperial Brazil First Republic

Getulio Vargas –Gaucho –Centralizes Brazilian poltics –Increase state intervention in economy –Estado Novo –First mass-based politics

Second Republic, Democratic politics ISI policies and related crises Juscelino Kubitschek, President

The Brazilian Political System in the Second Republic Weak President –Majority veto override –No decree power Complex Legislative System –Multiparty, high fragmentation. –Party-Switching –Open-list proportional representation

Open-List Proportional Representation

Political System, Cont Net Result: –Executive leadership difficult –Pork and Vote-buying an essential part of legislative coalitions.

Growing tensions Economic problems associated with ISI Stabilization program would alienate workers and left. Polarization Military Thinking: ESG –US helped to set up in 1949

ESG Text “A principal characteristic of Communist revolutionary war is the involvement of the population of the target country in a gradual, slow action - both progressive and continuous- which aims at the conquering of minds….They may use the method of guerilla warfare, of terrorism and other irregular tactics where persons who are national of the country itself are then turned into the combatants. They may also use devious, nonarmed tactics.”

Janio Quadros –Elected 1960 –V-P Joao Goulart –Brilliant or crazy? –Resigns hoping for more power

Joao Goulart, V-P Will he become President? –In communist China at the time of the coup –Military despises him –He flies home indirectly (China-Paris-RS) Solution: Parliamentary system? –Weak President (Goulart) –Tancredo Neves, Prime Minister

Goulart Regains full Presidential powers via plebiscite, 1963 Challenges –Economic –Military Politics –Rural mobilization –Stalemate Coup d’Etat, 1964 –Was it really a coup?

New form of Authoritarianism Military Governments in Brazil –Previously - clean house and leave –This time…. they stayed until 1985 “Bureaucratic Authoritarian” Regimes –Authoritarian –Bureaucratic - apolitical technocrats given control.

Brazil’s military government Pseudo-Democracy Brutal - but not Argentina, not Chile? Castello Branco –1966 Elections and political parties –ARENA and the MDB Costa e Silva (hard-liner) –Repression of labor and politicians –AI-5 –Insurrection, crushed by 1973

Military Government, Cont

Insurrection Leftist groups organized around the PCB Splinters on tactics and ideology –MR-8 –PCdoB –VPR After AI-5, agreement on violent tactics

Insurrection Small “foci” groups, following Che Guevara’s model Expected to “spark” general revolution n<6,000, mostly urban, some rural. Ideologies diverse and sometimes inconsistent Wiped out or exiled by 1973, nonviolent opposition in 1974 campaign Ideology: Inconsistent and sometimes odd

Gradual Opening Return to multiparty system Amnesty to revolutionaries (and military) 1984/5 Presidential election campaign –“Direitas Ja” –And Sarney versus Guimarres and 1985 Transition to civilian rule

The Third Republic President Collor, President Franco, President Cardoso, President Lula, President Rousseff, 2011-?

Central Features of the New Republic The Party System –Open-List Proportional Representation with low barriers to entry. Inequality, clientelism, and patronage politics. A Strong Presidency Federalism?

1. Brazil’s Party System Mass partisanship is extremely low, in contrast to other countries. Many parties earn seats in Congress – usually more than 20. Politician’s success has little relation to their partisanship. Correlation between President and Deputy vote shares is ….. 0 Why?

Open List Proportional Representation XYZ Joao25Miriam11Dilma14 Marta3Wigold10Gisela13 Gabriela2Maria7Roberto5 Sebastian1Jose6World Peace2 Fernando1Itamar2Ulysses

Typical campaign ad, OLPR

Another OLPR Ad

Impact of the Party System President’s party never has a majority. Lucky to get 20% of the seats in Congress. The other 80% of the seats are held by the other 20 or so parties. So how does anyone get anything done in Brazil? Presidency + $

2. Strong Presidency Executive has central role in budget, and expenditures are “optional”. Executive has “decree authority” – can write “medidas provisorias”, with temporary force of law. Result: executive forms large multi-party coalitions for governing, and uses decree authority when necessary.

3. Inequality/Poverty a prerequisite? Why do parties “sell out” so easily? Greed Poverty “When it gets dark out there, it get’s really dark”. Voters in many places don’t care about your stand on world peace. They just want you to get things done.

Some Perspective The legislature is fragmented, lacks accountability – and is largely for sale. The executive uses pork and decree authority to govern. In this sense, representation “works”. The most important votes anyone casts are for the Presidency. Key difference from : the legislature is weaker.

4. Federalism? Brazil is divided into 27 states plus a federal district Historically, state politics have spilled over into national politics Those influences are still present for legislators but much weaker for presidents. Evidence: roll-call votes, presidential tickets, and reforms.

Recent Political History : Jose Sarney (ARENA) : Fernando Collor (PRN) : Itamar Franco (PMDB) : Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) : Luiz “Lula” da Silva (PT) : Dilma Rousseff (PT)

Lula: Change or more of the same? Founding member of the Worker’s Party, 2 nd grade education, metal worker. As President: –Multiple corruption scandals. –Expands CCT’s to poor. –Economic boom. Extremely popular with poor, extremely unpopular with middle/upper New class cleavage or “rouba mais faz”?

New Directions in Research on Brazil A worrisome increase in judicial politicization.

New Directions The enduring problem of race The racial myth in Brazil is one of equality color blind attitudes, and shared heritage. Brazil is more than 50% “black” Most of the afro-brazilians are poor. Most of the elites are white

An Experiment

Not a Racial Myth? No pictureWhiteMixedBlackJapanese Treatment Control n

But with more choices… White SubjectsMixed SubjectsBlack Subjects C. Race WhiteBlackDiffWhiteBlackDiffWhiteBlackDiff

New Directions: Brazil’s International Future Still struggles with a perverse combination of pride and shame Desires a seat at the table (UN Sercurity Council) But will struggle with conflicting themes: nonalignment, anti-American, and democracy.

My favorite punchline Everyone would love to have Brazil’s problems.